INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Generally

the word probability is used

in our day to day conversations by
coming across following statements
such as :1) Probably it may rain today.
2) He may possibly join politics .
3) Indian Cricket Team has good
chances of winning World Cup.
In this all statements, the terms
probably , possibly & chance are
used , which conveys the sense that
there is uncertainity about what has

WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
Probability is the measure of how
likely an event is.
the ratio of the number of
favourable cases to the number
of all the cases
P(E) = Number of
outcomes favourable to E
Number of all
possible outcomes of the

THE HISTORY OF
PROBABILITY
Probability originated from the
study of games of chance. Tossing a
dice or spinning a roulette wheel are
examples of deliberate
randomization that are similar to
random sampling. Games of chance
were not studied by mathematicians
until the sixteenth and seventeenth
centuries. Probability theory as a
branch of mathematics arose in the
seventeenth century when French
gamblers asked Blaise Pascal and
Pierre de Fermat (both well known

RANDOM
PHENOMENON
An event or phenomenon is
called random if individual
outcomes are uncertain but there
is, however, a regular distribution
of relative frequencies in a large
number of repetitions. For
example, after tossing a coin a
significant number of times, it can
be seen that about half the time,
the coin lands on the head side
and about half the time it lands on
the tail side.
Note of interest: At around

TERMS USED IN
PROBABILITY
Event

An event is one occurence

of the activity whose probability is
being calculated.
For ex.- we are calculating the
probability of dice , an event is one
roll of a dice.
Outcome :- An Outcome is one
possible result of an event. For ex.
Rolling a five is one possible
outcome of rolling one dice.
A Success is an outcome that we
want to measure.
A Failure is an outcome that we

EVENTS IN PROBABILITY

The entire possible set of outcomes of a random

experiment is sample space of that experiment. The
likelihood of occurrence of an event is known as
probability. The probability of occurrence of any event lies
between 0 and 1.

TYPES OF EVENTS
Impossible

Events :- if the probability of

occurrence of an event is 0, such an event is
called as impossible event and if the
probability of occurrence of an event is 1,
such an event is called as sure event. In other
words,the empty set is an impossible event
and the sample space S is a sure event.

oSimple Event :-Any event consisting of a

single point of the sample space is known as
a simple event.
For example: If S = {56 , 78 , 96 , 54 , 89 }
and E = {78} then E is a simple event.
oCompound Event :- Contrary to simple
event, if any event consists of more than
one single point of the sample space then
such an event is called as compound
event. Considering the same example
again If S = {56 ,78 ,96 ,54 ,89 } andE1=
{56 ,54 },E2= {78 ,56 ,89 }
then,E1andE2represent two compound
events.

oIndependent Events and

Dependent events :-If the
occurrence of any event is
completely unaffected by the
occurrence of any other event, such
events are known as independent
event in probability and the events
owhich
Exhaustive
events
setevents
of
are affected
by:-A
other
events
is called
as exhaustive
if all
are known
as dependent
events.
the events together consume the
entire sample space.

oMutually exclusive events:If

occurrence of one event excludes
the occurrence of other event,
such events are mutually
exclusive events i.e. two events
dont have any common point.
For example:If S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ,
5 , 6} andE1andE2are two
events such thatE1consists of
numbers less than 3
andE2consists of numbers
greater than 4.That is,E1= {1,2}

PROPERTIES
The

probability ranges between 0

and 1
If an outcome cannot occur, its
probability is 0
If an outcome is sure, it has a
probability of 1
The
sum of probabilities of
mutually exclusive outcomes is
equal to 1
P(M) + P(F) = 1

FORMULAE OF PROBABILITY

A dice is thrown 1000 times with frequencies for the

outcomes 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 :Outcome

Frequency

179

2
150

157

149

5
175

Ans. Let Ei denote the event of getting outcome i

where i=1,2,3,4,5,6:Then; Probability of outcome 1=
Frequency of
1
Total no. of
outcomes
= 179
1000
= 0.179
Therefore, the sum of all the probabilities , i.e, E1 + E2
+ E 3+ E 4+ E 5 + E 6
is equal to 1.

6
190

APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY
Probability

theory is applied in
day to day life in risk
assessments and in trade on
financial markets
Another Significant application of
probability theory in everyday life
is reliability. Many consumer
products, such as automobiles
and consumer electronics use
reliability theory in product design

MODERN USE OF
PROBABILITY
In the twentieth century probability is
used to control the flow of traffic through a
highway system, a telephone interchange,
or a computer processor; find the genetic
makeup of individuals or populations;
figure out the energy states of subatomic
particles; Estimate the spread of rumors;
and predict the rate of return in risky
investments.

THANK YOU