Data-driven Models

in the Chemical
Process Industry
Bram Jansen and Olaf Abel
BASF Antwerpen N.V.
STI Automation Services
Workshop Honorary Doctorate Degree
Prof. Dr. Lennart Ljung
Leuven, 12./13.10.2004

Agenda

Introduction to BASF and its Antwerp site

Drivers and challenges in chemical process industry
Opportunities
Case Studies
Reflection and conclusion

BASF The Chemical Company

The worlds leading chemical company

Product segments: plastics, chemicals,
performance products, agriculture & nutrition
products, oil & gas
Successful due to global presence, Verbund,
active portfolio management
Number of employees (30.6.2004): 85.124
Financial results (2003):
Sales:

33.361 Mio

EBIT:

2.658 Mio

Cashflow:

4.878 Mio

BASF Antwerpen N.V.

2nd largest production site of BASF group

BASF Antwerpen N.V.

Some key data

Located in most northerly part of the Antwerp port

Largest chemical production site in Belgium,
total surface: 598 ha, approximately 65% developed
3.700 BASF employees and 1.400 from associates companies
Financial results (2003):
Sales:

3.666 Mio

EBIT:

383 Mio

Cashflow:

468 Mio

Energy consumption (2003): 10,3 TWh (3,5 % of Belgium)

Integrated Production Site (Verbund)

54 plants in 4 production sectors
BASF-products

Applications

Plastics and
Fibers
(46,0%)

polyurethane raw materials,

polystyrene, ethylbenzene,
styrene, Styrolux, ABS,
caprolactam

household appliances, toys,

sports equipment, insulating
and packing material, seats,
car parts, carpets, nylon,

Chemicals and
other products
(35,3%)

ethylene, propylene,
benzene, PIB, amines.

crop-protecting, pharmaceutical
products, additives for fuels and
lubricants, ...

Fertilizers and
Inorganics
(9,7%)

nitric acid, sulphuric acid,

ammonia, compound and
simple fertilizers

fertilizers

Performance
Products
(8,9%)

ethylene oxide, glycol,

acrylic acid, superabsorbers

anti freeze, detergents,

PET bottles, diapers,

Automation Services
Central competence center for Operations
Enterprise Resource Planning,
Business IT, SAP/R3
Advanced Process Control,
Real-time Optimization
Process Information
Management Systems
Process Control
Measure,
Communicate
Operate

ERP

BASF IT Services N.V.

APC, RTO
PIMS, LIMS
Automation Services
DCS, PLC

Field Devices & Infrastructure

Plant

Operations

Agenda

Introduction to BASF and its Antwerp site

Drivers and challenges in chemical process industry
Opportunities
Case Studies
Reflection and conclusion

The Chemical Industry in Europe

Total GDP grows with approximately 2%.

Chemical market growth below average GDP growth.
Most investments go to Middle or Far East, in particular China.
High dependence on external influences (feedstock prices).
Increasing competition.

The existing plant capacity

has to be used optimally!

Achieving optimality

Possible objective functions (OF):

throughput, conversion,
raw materials, energy,
product specification
Degrees of freedom (DoF)
(controller setpoints)
Constraints:
product quantities

The interesting
quantities are often
difficult to measure.
The influence of the
DoF on the OF is
not obvious.
The used problem
formulation is
plant-specific and
time-dependent.

product qualities
safety

Optimal operation is only achievable

by applying process models!

Different types of models

Possible requirements:
Dynamic
Nonlinear behaviour
Resolution in time and space
Extrapolation capabilities
Property distributions

First principles:
Based on balance and
phenomenological equations
Process knowledge required
Comparatively expensive

Data driven:
Identified using process data
Comparatively inexpensive

Agenda

Introduction to BASF and its Antwerp site

Drivers and challenges in chemical process industry
Opportunities
Case Studies
Reflection and conclusion

Data collection

PIMS: Plant Information

Management System

server

Long term data historian

(> 5 years online data)

PC

router

Link between process control

and office/engineering world
Site infrastructure
(> 90.000 tags covered)

Similar technology available

for laboratory data: LIMS
(currently 5.000 sample points)

PC

DCS

PC

collector

Model structures and

idenfication techniques

Identification

Models

Steady state

Dynamic

Multiple Linear Regression

ARX, ARMAX, OE, BJ,

PCA and PLS

Finite Impulse Response

Neural Networks

State Space

Least Squares
Backpropagation
Numerical optimization

Least Squares
Subspace identification
Prediction error methods
Numerical optimization

Software tools used within BASF

SAS JMP
IPCOS Presto
Mathworks MATLAB System Identification Toolbox
Tailored applications

General methodology to develop

data-driven models

Experiences

Integration of
knowledge

Noise

Feasibility

linear / non linear

Disturbances

Requirements

static / dynamic

Maintenance

Preliminary
investigation

model
structure
selection and
parameter
estimation

Preprocessing
raw data

Fine tuning
and
confidence
interval

Validation

Analysis

Interpolation

Sensitivity
analysis

Outlier detection

Online
application

Agenda

Introduction to BASF and its Antwerp site

Drivers and challenges in chemical process industry
Opportunities
Case Studies
Reflection and conclusion

Case 1: Polymer production

Process with inherent time lags and dead times

Production of 2 different grades
Relative viscosity (polymer / solvent) is main product specification

Reaction

Granulation

laboratory
analysis

QI

Extraction

Drying

15 h

18 h

Polymer

Monomer

QI

Soft sensor for relative viscosity

Relative viscosity is measured twice per day with high precision (0.01)
(laboratory / offline) analysis time is 4h
Potential in avoiding off-spec production:
fast detection of new product specification during grade change
fast reaction on disturbances influencing relative viscosity
reduction in number of (expensive) offline analysis
continuously
and easily
measurable
variables

= f(T,p,m)
model

prediction
of relative
viscosity

Engineering and implementation

Digital Control System

UNILAB
(Siemens)
PHD
(Honeywell)

JMP
(SAS)
PRESTO
(IPCOS)

EXCEL
(MS)

Relative Viscosity after drying

Results: comparison model / analysis

2 models (low/high grade)

after granulation

Multiple Linear
Regression (MLR)

2 models (low/high grade)

after drying

13 - 17 input parameters
(reaction and granulation section)

laboratory
analysis
soft sensor

18 months

Results: grade change

Relative viscosity

2,3

model based sensor

2,2

labo analysis
2,1

2
1

1441
2881
19.2.2003

4321

5761

7201

22.2.2003

RMSE < 0.009

80% of errors < 0.01
98% of errors < 0.02

8641

10081
11521
25.2.2003

12961

14401
15841
28.2.2003

Relative viscosity
is provided continuously
with high precision!

Case 2: Steamcracker

Largest plant at BASF Antwerpen N.V.

Consumes appr. 2,6 Mio. t/a of feedstock (mainly naphtha)

Capacity:
C2: 800.000 t/a
C3: 500.000 t/a
C4: 300.000 t/a
Benzene, TX

Operational environment of the

steamcracker
Many operational degrees of freedom
feedstock qualities,
feedstock and product prices,

Mass fraction

A lot of changing operating conditions

furnace decoke

C3H6
H2
Cross over temperature

Mass fraction C2H4

Classical application area for

model-based optimization and
multivariable predictive control!

C2H4

900 C
850 C

Residence time

Model Predictive Control

Hold plant at optimal

operating point:
Enforce
constraints!
Prevent
interaction
among SISO
control loops!
Minimize
necessary
control action!

setpoint
(from optimizer)
controlled variable
(predicted)

measured

manipulated
variable
time
control horizon
prediction horizon

Multivariable
Rigorous incorporation of constraints
(Limited) optimization capabilities

Engineering and implementation

Process data
collected by
executing step tests
PRBNS input
Mainly FIR models
(linear application)
Identification based
on LS algorithms

Size of the controller

Process Part

MV

FF

CV

Naphtha or LPG furnace

34

Ethane furnace

10

11

36

Cold side

36

20

82

Depropanizer

14

11

Propylene fractionator

11

29

Feedmaximizer

143

137

448

Results: C2 splitter
(separation ethane/ethylene)

Feed to C2 splitter

Ethane pollution in
top ethylene product
Ethylene loss in
bottom ethane

Results: C3 splitter two colums

(separation propane/propylene)

Propane in top
propylene product
(1. and 2. column)
Combined
feed to both columns

Propylene loss in
bottom propane
(1. and 2. column)

Agenda

Introduction to BASF and its Antwerp site

Drivers and challenges in chemical process industry
Opportunities
Case Studies
Reflection and conclusion

Reflection with academic research

Chemical processes are nonlinear and time-variant.

Nevertheless, the examples are all dealing with linear technology.
Within the domain of linear techniques, the simple methods are used.
Theoretical properties are neglected in most cases.
Only some attempts exist to use
advanced technologies
(polymer processes,
batch processes, ).
The (economical) justification
for using those technologies
has to be provided.

Conclusions

Data-driven models help to improve the operation of chemical

processes and to drive them towards optimality.
The necessary infrastructure (PIMS, LIMS) is far developed.
The number of applications of data-driven models is growing.
In most cases, linear technology is applied.
The time might have come to do the next step.
Contiuous exchange between academia and industry is
permanently required in order to identify appropriate application
areas for current research activities.