Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
(Managerial Decision
making)
Definition
Importance of Decision-Making
Cont.
Process of Decision-Making
Informal approach
Formal approach
Informal approach:
Past experience
Expert opinion
Prior reasoning (requisite course of action)
Identification of problem.
Establishment of objectives.
Generating alternatives.
Evaluation of alternatives.
Selection of an alternative.
Implementation of the alternative.
Monitoring of the effects of implementation.
Cont
Closed System:
Gather
Information
Develop
alternatives
Revise
Evaluate
alternatives
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Select
alternatives
Implement
decision
Evaluate
& control
1)
2)
Cont
3) Risk:
The decision maker has some probabilistic
estimate of the outcome of each decision.
Condition of risk occurs when the decision
maker has enough information to allow
the use of probability in evaluating the
alternatives.
Cont..
Types of decisions
Programmed decisions
Non Programmed decisions
Programmed decisions
Non-programmed
decisions
Nature of
problem
Unstructured, novel,
ill-defined
Recurrence of
problem
Repetitive
Non-repetitive
Method of
solving
Judgment
Objective
Subjective
Probability of
outcome
Certainty
Uncertainty
Level of mgmt.
Middle/lower
Top level
Types
organizational,
operational, research,
opportunity
Personal/strategic/crisis
intuitive/problem solving
Structured
Unstructured
Decision Model
Classical Model
Administrative Model
Condition of certainty.
Condition of uncertainty
Intelligence
Design
Choice
Implementation