S&P 500 Weekly with the 8,13 and 55 week EMA

Looking at the longer term Fibonacci EMAs, bulls have plenty to be concerned about.
The 8 and 13 weeklies have witnessed a “bearish cross” while the 55 Week EMA is
being “vigorously” tested. This 8/13 cross is a significant development in moving
average terms and should be considered bearish.

55 Week EMA
holds twice

8/13
bullish
cross

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Daily (Log Scale) - The 23.6% and 61.8% retracements

Head

Left Shoulder
Right Shoulder

The 23.6% retracement has been violated in the last several days. Using the “Rule of
23.6%,” this is further evidence that the bullish trend is over and we’re now heading
lower. The 61.8% retrace would be the objective now. Notice how nicely that 878 level
aligns with previous support/resistance. It would also align very well with the insipient
head and shoulders topping formation which is becoming clearer.

-W-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Monthly (Log Scale)
Supercycle
Wave III
(Euphoria)

This is my longer term count. Under this model the <A> and <B> wave
occupied 85 months of time, which means that the EARLIEST the <C> <B>
could end would be March 2011. Interestingly the 61.8% of -W- = -Y- in
time and price would also target March 2011 with a “double bottom” into
666. (B)

-X-
(A)

<A>

(C) -Y-
-W-
<C>

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Monthly (Log Scale)
Supercycle
Wave III
(Euphoria)

This is would be the alternate count. It’s derived from some of Neely’s
ideas--this would imply more price action higher in order to finish off a -B-
wave. The implications here would be a <C> wave that doesn’t conclude
until 2012, which would align well with the Presidential Election Cycle.
<B>

-B-

(W)

(X)

<A>
-A-

-C-
<C>

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -X-
S&P 500 Daily ~ A “Triple” Finally Concluded? (Z)
(Y) “y”?
“y”
c “w”
“w” a “x”
g
e
b
c
a (X)
1034
f
d
“x”
(W)
b

Reprinted from 5/2/10

869
(X)

This would have to be the model that finished the entire advance from the 667 lows. Because
of how treacherous it has been attempting to call “the top,” I won’t do so now. However, given
the time of the year (“Sell in May and Go Away”) and the fact that this market has rallied so
unrelentingly, it would seem to be ripe for at least a robust correction.

667
-W-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -X-
S&P 500 Daily ~ A One of a Kind “Triple” Concluded? (Z)
(Y) “y”
“y”
c “w”
“w” “x”
a
g
e
b
c
a (X)
1034
f
d
“x”
(W)
b

869
(X)

Many “orthodox” Elliott Wavers are calling the move up from 667 a “triple” of some kind. It’s
easy to reach that conclusion. In fact, I generally agree with this concept, although my
counting of a triple would be different than others. It’s very difficult to see many “impulsive”
patterns on the move higher, which is why I’m calling it a “one of a kind” type of triple,
something that has not yet been seen before. The other obvious issue with calling this pattern
a “triple” is the large (Y) wave compared to the (W)--it’s too big. Glenn Neely asserts that the
pattern up from 667 to the 1219 high fits NO KNOWN Wave formation. And, I agree with that
assertion. I’m taking the leap that the Fed’s excessive intervention in capital markets via
Quantitative Easing has created a corrective pattern that is “different.”
667
-W-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -B-
S&P 500 Daily ~ The “Alternate” Count “a”
(Y)
y
“c”

“d” w
x
( W ) “b”
“e”

“e”
“b”
“c” (X)
“a”
“c”
“a”

“d”

This would be another interpretation of the price action (from Neely*). In the bigger
picture, the variation on these models are irrelevant. For instance, in this model the
“b” wave within (Y) has powerfully retraced all of the “a.” In such situations, there is
a high likelihood that the “a” wave peak WILL NOT be bettered. So, in this model,
we have already seen the absolute high while the -B- wave has not yet concluded.
-A- In practical terms, there is no real difference in the count: The highs have been
made and the market is heading lower over the next year.

“b” *This is not the exact Neely count. I would encourage readers to sign up for his
Weekly S&P Plot if you want to know exactly what his views might be (about $20/mo).

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Daily ~ A big Triangle -B- Wave? -B-
(E)

“d” “w”
“x”
(C) “b”
“y”

“e”
(D)
“c”
“a”

(A) “w”

“x”

It’s also possible to count out the entire pattern as a type of triangle.
Some of the interesting aspects to this count is that the (C) wave was
200% of (A) while the proposed (E) wave was exactly 38.2% of (C). The
-A- (D) wave was 14.6% of (B), so some nice Fibbo relationships in the
alternating legs. Also, some kind of triangle would explain the big “thrust”
lower that we’ve observed.

(B)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 June e-Minis ~ (60 min.)
c Wave probably
a “y” finished here.
e
1208 g
1202
-a- 1202.00

f
b b?
d 1168.75

Reprinted from 5/9/10

a?

I’m going to have to “cop out” on the S&P count this week because I’m still trying to
reconcile what we saw last week. I won’t be able to understand the wave count until we get
some more price action. It seems pretty clear that “something” concluded at 1202 with
1168.75 looking like medium term resistance. The action last week should have served as
a strong warning to investors that it’s probably time to get defensive for the next several
months. New bears looking for the ultimate “Primary 3” societal collapse phase should
have some “reservations” given the similarity between this collapse and the 1987 Crash.
After that “eventful” day in October of 1987, the markets started to grind unrelentingly
higher, frustrating anyone who was looking for the “next wave down.” In terms of a trading
posture, the risk remains to the downside. Traders should be bearish this market but must
accept the fact that “volatility” seems present for the next several months. In other words,
be prepared for big bounces. I don’t expect 1202 to be bettered for a long time. That
looks like a “top” for at least the next several months.

c?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 June e-Minis ~ (120 min.)
The most straightforward way to label the move lower is as a
c “y” “corrective” flat. It looks like we had a five wave move down which
e Wave probably
a g finished here. concluded the Minute c-wave of a Minor “a.” A “b” wave should take
1208
1202 the market back to the 1147 to 1175 zone where there will be very
strong resistance. Bulls waiting for a nice bounce back to 1147 to get
out might not want to wait too long, though. There are other more
ominous possibilities….
b
f -b- 1174.75
b
d
-a- “b”
-2-
1147.00

-1-

-4-

-c- L. Shoulder?
-3- R. Shoulder?
a

-5-
c
“a”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 June e-Minis ~ (120 min.)
c “y”
e Wave probably
a g finished here.
1208 While it’s not my primary count, it’s possible we’re in the middle of
1202
a larger impulsive development where we’ve seen a Wave 1 and
3 that are similar in size. It would mean that we’re setting up for a
fifth wave “extension” that would feel like a crash. It’s because of
these sorts of scenarios that investors still “hanging out” long
2 should consider defensive measures. Any sideways congestion
f -2-
b from here would be very bad news for bulls who should consider
d
1036 key technical support.
-1-
-2-

-4-

-1-
-a-
Truncated “fifth” caused -c- 4
by the extreme wave -3-. -4- -e-
-5-
1

-d-
-3- -b-
-3-

I’ve seen some Wavers attempting to call this setup a 1-2 and then another 1-2. -5-
That is probably not a correct count due to the complexity and duration of the
lesser degree Wave 1 compared to the higher degree. It wouldn’t square logically 3
to have that type of wave development.
An Extended
Wave 5
CRASH

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Monthly (Log Scale)

III <B> Baby Boomer’s get fully loaded

into “investment” properties.

Baby Boomer’s get fully

loaded into equities

-X-

<D>

<A>
<E>
-W- -Y- IV
<C>

Boomer’s begin liquidating in preparation for retirement, but there are

no buyers for the high priced asset--asset deflation through 2020.

Unfortuantely, this is a very viable interpretation of the price action through 2020. It also fits with the
“Boomer Cycle,” where we saw strong asset price appreciation as they hit their peak earning years
followed by decades of asset deflation as they (Baby Boomers) must raise capital for retirement.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any

kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is Wave Symbology
NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I or A = Supercycle
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions <I>or <A> = Cycle
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (I) or (A) = Intermediate
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