Emerging Challenges and the Transformation of

Agricultural Research

National Academy of Agricultural Research Management

Hyderabad, AP, India
http://www.naarm.ernet.in

Outline
Driving forces of future agricultural research
National/International strategic focus on :
food security
inclusive growth small farmer integration into agribusiness value chain
sustainability of natural resource base of agriculture
resilience to climate change
Increasing Private Sector role & changing structure IP ownership
Agricultural mechanization precision agriculture, robotics, automation
Emerging sciences: IT; nanotech; biotech; systems biology; ecosystems
Agricultural Knowledge Systems: networks of data, information, knowledge
Societal expectations of accountability and good governance
ICAR response - new vision, mission, strategy, capacity building

SCARP Agricultural Research policy

Mission: To ensure productivity, profitability and sustainability of the agriculture sector and
assure national food security through economically viable, environmentally sound and
socially acceptable agriculture research with a strong inter-institutional collaboration

Guiding principles

Nationally coordinated demand-driven agriculture research is the key to achieving

national food security and economic stability

A shared vision and shared responsibility from all stakeholders necessary to achieve
self reliance in food and nutrition security, socio-economic prosperity and foreign
exchange earnings

Highest priority to transforming agriculture sector to drive pro-poor growth and

national development

Agriculture research aiming at higher quantities and quality of the agriculture

products at national level is guided through partnership among stakeholders and
market forces

Building human resources and institutional capacity is of paramount importance in

achieving national development goals

Food security
Food security is the ability of all
people at all times to access
enough food for an active and
healthy life.

Two

National

levels
over 35 percent in
South Asia
India: 25%
Sri Lanka: 2%
Household

Fig source: Amarsinghe et al, 2012

Food security prevalence of undernourishment in South

Asia
Sri Lanka:
Population: 21.3 m;
GDP: $ 67 m; growth: 6.7%
per capita income > $3170
agriculture area; 220000 ha
paddy ~ 1m ha; 4.5 t/ha
GHI rank: 37
domestic supply of cereals is
78%
imports:
cereals (42%)
pulses (96%)
vegetable oils (75%)
vegetables (22%)
spices (61%)
milk (76%)
fish (31%)
Source: Wickramasinghe, 2014 (ESCAP), Development Paper 1402
Needed: 200,000 metric tons of
food per year to the chronically
undernourished

Food security and sustainability role of technology (TFP)

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) = ratio of value of outputs (production) to inputs (land
water inputs)
Increase in production = f (land expansion, irrigation expansion, increased inputs/ha,
increase in TFP)
global

Low-income
countries

High income
countries

developed countries: productivity increases currently driven by TFP growth (R&D effect ) >
production growth
developing countries: input intensification continues need for more R&D for sustainable
intensification of agriculture
Source: Global Harvest GAP report, 2014

Food security closing yield gaps is most critical

Yield gaps

yield gaps vary by region - controlled by fertilizer use, irrigation & climate
more research needed: data and knowledge-intensive process oriented management
in local context to close yield gaps
Source Lobell et al, 2010

Mueller et al, 2012

Two distinct barriers impede innovation:

Technological Valley of Death
Commercialization Valley of Death

Technology entrepreneurship and Public Private Partnerships

(PPP) can bridge the two valleys of death

Increasing role of Private sector

in agricultural R&D :
Global market for agricultural
inputs and R&D investments (2006)

R&D intensity (% sales):

Crop protection:

6-7%

Seed:

10-15%

Animal health:

8-9%

machinery:

2-3%

Animal breeding: 7-8%

Increasing share of private investment in research

In sectors like biotechnology investment capacities of private sector >> public sector
Company

Crop
protection

Seed/
biotechnology

Bayer

730

110

Syngenta

500

310

Monsanto

40

490

Pioneer

215

312

BASF

340

93

CGIAR

US $ million
Total (R&D as % of R in R&D
sales)
126
840 (11%)
122
810 (11%)
80
530 (10%)
79
527 (11%)
51
433 (10%)
257
428

ICAR (XI FYP)

~ 500

Note: relatively high share of D in R&D

Adapted from : Spielman, 2007 and K Sharma, 2014

India: Public and private agricultural R&D investments

Total investment

Sector investment

millions of 2005 US dollars

Source; IFPRI (India), 2014

India: public private performance in seed sector

Numbers of field crop varieties by public- and
private-sector institutions in India,
20052010

New vegetable hybrids in India,

19982005

Increasing private investment and changing intellectual

property ownership structure
International:
TRIPS patents, copyright, TM, TS, GI, designs
PVP

sui generis systems/UPOV

CBD origin, national rights to natural resources,

traditional knowledge, PIC, equitable
benefit sharing
FAO-IT plant genetic resources

Protect products of innovation

(focus on rights of industry)

Protect sources of products of

innovation ( focus on rights of
nations, communities)

PCT standardized patent application and search process

to facilitate quick international protection

National Institutional mechanisms: Patents Act, PPV&FRA, other IP related Acts, NBDA,
SBDA; (conformity with TRIPS, CBD, FAO-IT)
Compatibility between TRIPS and CBD/FAO-IT (?)

13

The new IP Drivers (contd..)

High costs of technology protection and
commercialization
Annual research expenditure per patent in
top 30 universities in USA: US $ 3 to 26
million
Annual research expenditure per start-up
company in top 30 universities in USA: US
$ 21 to 379 million

Transgenics
Cost of development of a marketable GE
cultivar (Monsanto): >US $800 m
Time taken: 15 yrs from development to
commercial release
cost of development of marketable
product > 20 times development of
homozygous transgenic plants
costs of regulatory compliances: up to US
$ 4 million or higher

only a few universities are

generating significant returns
from licensing activities

14

Productivity and Inclusive growth:

Markets and changing perspective from research to innovation
Agricultural production systems are increasingly controlled by:
Markets: consumers/agribusiness
global integration through trade
regulatory frameworks and ethical choices
National and global policy consensus:
need to raise rural incomes for inclusive growth
agricultural research & technologies are prime drivers of rural incomes
value addition in agriculture is largest untapped source of income in rural areas
make farming an attractive business opportunity for smallholders by creating
opportunities for entrepreneurs in the value chain
Value addition links farmers with consumers and research with innovation
requires transforming NARS to NAIS

Agricultural Innovation System

In the Agricultural
Innovation System:
knowledge generation
and technology transfer
are based on complex
backward and forward
linkages between
agricultural research,
production,
agribusiness and
consumers

Fig Adapted from: Birner, 2007

Research to innovation : production-consumption chain

focus on commodities and

value addition
add and accumulate value
from one link to next in the
value chain
innovations at each link
for improved competitiveness
addresses complex forward
and backward linkages along
value chain through
public-private partnerships (PPP)

Research to innovation: livelihood security

Fig Source:
DFID

Agricultural research

focus on forward and backward

linkages among multiple livelihood
opportunities, resources and factors at
macro and micro economic levels
partnerships with NGOs, Govt Depts

Climate change

Climate change (IPCC Definition): change in the state of the climate that can
be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the
variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer

Fig Source : IPCC, 2001

The climate change process

Emissions
GHGs
Concentrations
of GHGs in atmosphere
Warming
(climate forcing)
Climate change
(Temp, rain, sea-level)
Impacts

Sources: transportation, energy, agriculture

(methane, Nitrous oxide, CO2)

Observed and simulated temperature change (IPCC, 2007)

state-of-the-art climate models, reproduce almost

perfectly the last 125 years of observed mean
temperatures but differ widely on future projections.

Climate change increases uncertainties and extremes

1C warming of the atmosphere

triples the variance of the

weather

increases Agriculture food

security at risk

2001-10 decade of extremes outside of historical expectations

(WMO, 2013)

Extremes likely to be more

prevalent in future

Water infrastructure and agriculture

are not designed for increasing
frequency and prevalence of such
extremes

Small increases in global mean

annual temperature linked to
climate change are the cause

historical

mid 21st
century

end 21st
century

crop yield change (sorghum in West Africa)

Projected changes in extremes (global)

Precipitation
Knowledge of extremes allows risk
assessments and better design
extremes are spatially less
consistent compared to
temperature but indicate increases
Dry spells : likely to increase
land fraction experiencing more
intense precipitation events is
larger than expected from internal
variability
greater uncertainties at regional
scales
risk of floods to increase by a
factor of 20 or more

Increase in flood risk : multi-model median return

period (years) in 21st century for discharge
corresponding to the 20th century 100-year flood
(Hirabayashi et al, 2013)

Climate change impacts on food security:

food prices

Even with no climate change, world

prices for rice, wheat, maize, and
soybeans will increase by 62%, 39%,
63%, and 72% respectively between
2000 and 2050, because of
increasing population and income
growth, and biofuels

Climate change results in additional

price increases: 32 to 37% for rice,
52 to 55% for maize, 94 to 111% for
wheat, and 11 to 14% for soybeans.

Livestock are not directly affected,

but effects of higher feed prices
caused by climate change are
passed on to livestock

Climate change impacts on nutrition security

Calories

Child malnutrition

decline in calorie availability and per capita consumption of meat and cereals
increase in child malnutrition
Nelson et al, 2009

Sri Lanka Impacts of Climate Change on agriculture

Precipitation
Change
Temperature
Change
Rice yield (A1B)
Water balance (A1B)

Source; ADB, 2014

relative contributions of different stages of the food

chain to global greenhouse gas emissions
the food system contributes
19%29% of total global
anthropogenic GHG emissions
Of this, agricultural production
contributes 80%86%
Adaptation and Mitigation can
make agriculture a part of
solution to climate change
problem:
crop improvement
Management: BMPs to
reduce emissions
reduced GHGs can earn carbon
credits (can be offset against
subsidies)
needs better understanding of
processes and high traceability
of BMPs
Source: Vermuelen et al, 2012

Climate projections and impacts - state-of-art

Wide range of temperature projections for SRES
scenarios and RCPs of average temperature
increase between 2090 and 2099 (Rogelj et al, 2012)

Source:
Winkler et al,
2011

CMIP5 provides access to a wide range of gridded data sets of climate model projections
impact models are sector specific lack of integrated assessments
impact models typically use only one GCM projections - account only for a limited range
of projections (outputs do not include climate model uncertainty)
issues: integrated assessments; dealing with range of projections (climate uncertainty) ?

Farm mechanization across the production

cycle

Tillage
Tillage &
&
seedbed
seedbed
Preparati
Preparati
on
on

Sowing/
Sowing/
Planting
Planting

Inter
Inter Cultivation
Cultivation
Fertilise
Fertilise
rr
Irrigati
Irrigati
Applicati
on
Applicati
on
on
on
Plant
Plant Protection
Protection

Harvesti
Harvesti
ng
ng

Post
Post
Harvesti
Harvesti
ng
ng

Mechanized Solutions for whole chain

Essential for:
for sustainable intensification of agriculture
addressing scarcity of agricultural labour
climate change mitigation

source: MM Pandey,
2011

Emerging technologies
progress and convergence of molecular biology, nanotechnology, computer science,
control theory, precision manufacturing and measurement technologies, enables in-depth
understanding of agricultural at system-level while grounding firmly to the molecular basis
Many new technologies are enabling in nature integrate into all sciences
Modern information technologies allow for collection and use of many different types of
agricultural data including real time data:
from soils, climate, crop and market conditions, to consumer nutrition and
preferences, gene sequences and ecological variables
Data sets are massive and present challenges of accessibility, interoperability, and
persistence.
need for better data-management strategies addressing such issues as data storage,
search algorithms, analytical methods, data sharing, and data visualization.

KSA: integrating new sciences and technologies into agriculture to maintain flow
of new technologies and stay globally competitive

Knowledge as factor of production S&T strategic focus

increasing importance of knowledge as a factor of production
timely knowledge interventions at all links in the agri-supply chain:
- delivery of inputs
- increasing productivities and efficiencies
- lowering post harvest losses
- processing farm outputs to higher value foods
systems for creating, processing and communicating knowledge
designing knowledge systems: networking data, information and institutions
IP management to increase Freedom to Operate (FTO) to address fragmented
ownership of IP
engage to promote acceptance by society proactive ex ante regulatory and health and
environmental impact studies to design policies, tests and regulatory frameworks
institutional arrangements for multidisciplinary and multi-institutional engagement
including with private sector

ICAR - organization

ICAR 2050: Vision, mission, strategy

Vision
In 2050 some 1.6 billion people have adequate, nutritious, safe and healthy food,
and adequate fibre within limits of the natural system
Mission
Harness power of science and education with a human touch for higher and
sustainable agricultural production.
Strategic Focus
farmer first
multiply resource use efficiencies - green revolution 2 while enhancing
natural resources focus on knowledge intensive agriculture
climate resilience
Organizational transformation
research to innovation: NARS to NAIS
partnerships : PPP, national, international
create globally competitive human resources
Internalize good governance

ICAR 2030 Harnessing Science

Potential of genetic enhancement: yield, resistance, animal health and

quality

Power of biotechnology, nanotechnology

Synergies of frontier sciences: ICT, GIS, GPS

Management of natural resources: IWM, INM, ICM, IPM

Agricultural diversification

Value addition during post-harvest

Management of energy and agricultural waste

Management of biorisk

Carbon accounting

Institutions and policies

Initiate new Research Platforms

Genomics

Seed

Climate Change

Water

Conservation Agriculture

GM Foods

Health Foods

Feed & Fodder

Fibre

Diagnostics and vaccines

Precision Farming

Farm mechanization

Energy

Nanotechnology

High value compounds

Socio economic research

E- extension and AKM

biodiversity

Natural Resource Management

Climate Resilient Agriculture

Dryland Agriculture

Hill and Island Agriculture

Conservation Agriculture

Organic Farming

Acid Soil Management

Crop Science

Genomics

Stress-tolerant varieties

Heterosis for developing hybrids

New generation designer crop plants

Bio-fortification of staple food crops

Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abiotic

stresses

Transgenic against biotic stress

Microbial genomics in search of new genes

Crop Science (contd..)

Bio-fortification of staple food crops

Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abiotic stresses

Transgenic against biotic stress

Microbial genomics in search of new genes

Development of functional foods and nutraceuticals

Certification standards and procedures of transgenic and GM seed

Seed production agronomy in relation to climate change

Transgenic research, Gene pyramiding, nano-technology research

to support conventional breeding

Non-products development from good grains using fermentation

technology

Horticulture

Hybrid-oriented genetic resources promotional approach

Seeds/planting materials increased availability

Rejuvenation / Replacement of unproductive orchards

Insect pest and disease management

Enhancing water and nutrient use efficiency

Protected cultivation

Precision horticulture

Post-harvest management

Animal Science

Animal genomics

Stem cell research for animal health and production

Cloning

Marker assisted selection of qualitative and quantitative traits

Nano-technology for drug delivery

Molecular diagnostics and vaccines

Establishment of DNA, embryo, Vety. Pathgens, rumen/dairy

microbe repositories

Transgenic for pharmaceutical application

Functional & nutraceutical animal products

Fisheries

Marine Fisheries Management

Mariculture

Breed Improvement

Diversification of Species

Water Management and Bioremediation

Feed Formulations

Health Management

Agricultural Engineering

Customized farm implements and machinery

Conservation and precision agriculture

Reduction in post harvest losses and Post harvest management

Nanotechnology for enhancing input use efficiency and value

addition of natural fibres

Utilization of surplus agricultural residues for rural power supply

Entrepreneurship Development for agro service centres and custom

hiring of farm machinery and processing equipment

Capacity Building Framework: required competencies

Competencies: measurable or
observable knowledge, skills and
attitudes critical to success in a
role/function

competencies framework for NARS

Emphasis on different competencies will vary with stage of career

Both institutional support and individual initiative are pre-requisites for
developing competencies

Thank You