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om

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ANALISIS
EKONOMI

internationalfinancemagazin
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PERMASALAHAN
FUNDAMENTAL
e.com

Faisal Basri
23 JunI 2016

Bagian I
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Melambat dan
Cenderung Kurang
Berkualitas

The rise and decline of

Indonesian economy: GDP growth
1961-2015 (%)
12.0

Trendline-polynomial
9.8

6.2

6.1

9.2

-2.3

The fall of
Old Order

8.4
5.7

6.3

6.4
5.0 4.8

6.0

Pertamina
crisis
1.1

9.1

8.5

4.6

3.5
1.1

Global
financial
crisis

Oil price
collapse

Economic crisis and

the end of New
Order/Soeharto era

1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

-13.1

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia; and World Bank, World

Development Indicators.

The declining trend of economic

growth
(GDP growth, %)
6.5

6.0

5.5

6.4
6.2

5.0

6.1
5.6

4.5

5.0
4.8

4.0
2010

2011

Source: BPS-Statistics
Indonesia.

2012

2013

2014

2015

The second quarter of 2015 was a

turning point?
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

6.8
6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5

6.3
5.9

6.3 6.4

6.2 6.1
6.0
5.8

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.7
5.1

5.0

4.9

4.7 4.7 4.7

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..

Q!-2016

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1-15

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1-2014

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1-2013

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1-2012

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1-2011

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1-2010

Q4

4.3

Q3

Q2

Q1-2009

4.9

4.5
4.1

5.0

5.0

Welfare

Indonesia: avoiding the trap

RISING?
Nusantara
melaju

FLOATING?
alon-alon asal
kelakon
Middle-income
trap

2015

2045

Source: Adopted from world Bank, Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap, Development Policy Review, May 2014.

Economic growth by island:

Kalimantan and Sumetera suffered
the most

2015 :
3.5%
2016*:
4.2%
Riau:
2.34%
Share:
22.2%

2015 :
1.3%
2016*:
1.1%
Share:
8.2%

2015 :
5.5%
2016*:
5.3%
Share:
58.3%

* First quarter
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

2015 :
8.2%
2016*:
7.5%
Share:
5.9%

2015 :
10.3%
2016*:
7.1%
Share:
3.1%

2015 :
6.6%
2016*:
1.2%
Share:
2.4%

Policy responses matter:

projections year-on-year,
of GDPpercent
growth of ASEAN
countries
2016 2017

2013 2014 2015

*
*
Brunei
Darussalam
-2.1 -2.3 -1.1 1.0 2.5
Cambodia
7.4
7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1
Indonesia
5.6
5.0 4.8 5.2 5.5
Lao PDR
7.8
7.5 6.7 6.8 7.0
Malaysia
4.7
6.0 5.0 4.2 4.4
Myanmar
8.4
8.7 7.2 8.4 8.3
Philippines
7.1
6.1 5.8 6.0 6.1
Singapore
4.7
3.3 2.0 2.0 2.2
Thailand
2.7
0.8 2.8 3.0 3.5
Vietnam
5.4
6.0 6.7 6.7 6.5
* Projections
Memo:
ASEAN
5.0
4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8
Source: Asian Development Bank
(http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/182221/ado2016_0.pdf)

Even much larger economies than

Indonesia grew faster
GDP growth, year-on-year, percent

* Projections
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues

Projection of GDP growth based on

RPJM 2015-2019 compared to the
trend
Average
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015-19
RPJM
version

5.5 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.0

6.94

More
realistic

4.8 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.1

5.42

GDP growth by sector

Sectors
Agriculture, forestry & fishery
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing industry
Electricity and gas
Water, waste management, cesspit and
recycling
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade, cars &
motorcycles reparations
Transportation and warehousing
Accommodation, food and beverages
Information and communication
Finance and insurance
Real estate
Business services
Public adm., defense, and compulsory
social security
Education
Health and social activities

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Shar
e
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
3.53 3.96 4.59 4.20 4.24 4.02 13.5
4.10 4.29 3.02 2.53 0.72 5.08 7.6
3.79 6.26 5.62 4.37 4.61 4.25 20.8
10.0
8.09 5.69
6 5.23 5.57 1.21 1.1
6.74 4.73 3.34 3.32 5.87 7.17 0.1
6.84 9.02 6.56 6.11 6.97 6.65 10.3
9.08
7.14
6.31
14.8
6
5.68
8.72
8.37

9.66
8.31
6.86
10.0
2
6.97
7.68
9.24

5.40
7.11
6.64
12.2
8
9.54
7.41
7.44

4.81
6.97
6.80
10.3
9
8.76
6.54
7.91

5.16
7.36
5.77
10.1
0
4.68
5.00
9.81

2.47 13.3
6.68 5.0
4.36 3.0
10.0
6 3.5
8.53 4.0
4.82 2.9
7.69 1.7

7.89 6.43 2.13 2.56 2.38 4.75

11.7
9 6.68 8.22 7.44 5.55 7.45
5.90 9.00 7.97 7.96 7.96 7.10

3.9
3.4
1.1

Low quality of growth, 20002015

Percen
t

10

8.8

8.7

8.6

8.0

Non-tradable

7.4

7.0

7.1

7.1

7.2

7.1

6.3
6

5.3

4.9

6.2

5.3

GDP
5.1

4.6
3.9

6.5

3.5

2.6

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.9

3.8

3.4

Tradable
2.2

4.7
3.7

3.6
2.5

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* First quarter (January-March)
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Growth of manufacturing
industries, 2011-15
GDP Total
Manufacturing, Total
Coal and Refined Petroleum
1 Products
2 Food Products and Beverages
3 Tobacco Products
4 Textiles and Wearing Apparel
Leather & Related Products &
5 Footware
Wood & of its products (except
6 furniture)
Paper & Paper Products; Repro
7 of Recorded
Chem & Pharma & Botanical
8 Products
9 Rubber & Plastics Products
10 Other Non-Metallic Mineral
11 Manufacture of Basic Metals
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Computer, Optical Products &

Averag
e
20112011 2012 2013 2014 2015
15
6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.8
5.5
6.3 5.6 4.5 4.6 4.2
5.0
-0.3 -2.4 -1.7 -2.1 -1.8
11.0 10.3 4.1 9.5 7.5
-0.2 8.8 -0.3 8.9 6.4
6.5 6.0 6.6 1.5 -4.8

-1.7
8.5
4.7
3.2

10.9 -5.4

5.2

5.5

4.0

4.0

-2.7 -0.8

6.2

6.1 -1.8

1.4

3.9 -2.9 -0.5

3.4 -0.1

0.8

3.9
1.2
2.4
5.9

7.6
2.8
5.5
7.2

8.7 12.8 5.1

2.1 7.6 -1.9
7.8 7.9 3.3
13.6 -1.6 11.6

7.4
5.0
6.2
6.5

Perubahan struktur ekonomi yang

tidak sehat membuat nasib
pekerja
rentan
Penduduk usia 15 tahun ke atas yang bekerja menurut lapangan pekerjaan utama
(Agustus, persen)

Pertanian
Industri
Konstruksi
Perdagangan
Transport, pergudangan,
komunikasi
Keuangan
Jasa
kemasyarakatan/perorangan
Lainnya
Keseluruhan
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Juta
Persen
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
39.22 38.97 37.75 34.78 34.00 32.88
14.96 15.26 15.25 13.27 13.31 13.28
6.35 7.28 8.21 5.63 6.35 7.15
24.10 24.83 25.68 21.37 21,66 22.37
5.10

5.11

5.11

4.52

4.46 4.45

2.90

3.03

3.27

2.57

2.64 2.85

18.45 18.42 17.94 16.36 16.07 15.62

1.68 1.73 1.61
112.76 114.63 114.82

1.49
100

1.51 1.40
100
100

Pekerja informal-formal
Feb'1 Aug'1 Feb'1 Aug'1 Feb'1
4
4
5
5
6
Informal

59.8

59.4

57.9

57.7

58.2

Berusaha sendiri
Berusaha dibantu
buruh tak tetap
Pekerja bebas di
pertanian
Pekerja bebas di
nonpertanian
Pekerja keluarga/tak
dibayar

17.2

17.9

17.9

17.0

16.9

16.7

16.8

15.6

15.8

17.4

4.0

4.4

4.2

4.4

4.3

5.7

5.6

5.6

6.5

5.8

16.2

14.7

14.6

14.0

13.8

Formal
Berusaha dibantu
buruh tetap
Buruh/karyawan

40.2

40.6

42.1

42.2

41.7

3.5
36.7

3.6
37.0

3.5
38.6

3.5
38.7

3.3
38.4

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Labor productivity differences

across sectors remain
significant
(Sector labor productivity (real terms) compared with
labor productivity in agriculture)

Sector
Agriculture
Low-end services
Manufacturing
industries
Transport &
communication
Financial services
Mining and
quarrying

200003
1.0
2.4

200508
1.0
2.5

200912
1.0
2.2

5.7

5.8

5.0

2.8
21.5

3.5
20.5

5.5
14.6

46.8

26.7

18.0

Source: World Bank, Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap, Development Policy Review 2014, p. 6.

Mayoritas pekerja masih tamatan

sekolah menengah pertama ke
bawah
Penduduk usia 15 tahun ke atas yang bekerja menurut jenjang pendidikan
tertinggi yang ditamatkan (Agustus, persen)
2013

2014

2015

SD ke bawah
Sekolah Menengah
Pertama

47.72

47.07

44.27

18.23

17.75

18.03

Sekolah Menengah Atas

Sekolah Menengah
Kejuruan

15.86

16.21

17.25

8.84

9.18

9.44

Diploma I/II/III

2.60

2.58

2.68

Universitas

6.75

7.21

8.33

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Semakin tinggi tingkat

pendidikan semakin tinggi
tingkat pengangguran
Tingkat pengangguran terbuka (TPT) penduduk usia 15 tahun ke atas menurut
jenjang pendidikan tertinggi yang ditamatkan (Agustus, persen)
2013

2014

2015

SD ke bawah
Sekolah Menengah
Pertama

3.44

3.04

2.74

7.59

7.15

6.22

Sekolah Menengah Atas

Sekolah Menengah
Kejuruan

9.72

9.55

10.32

11.21

11.24

12.65

Diploma I/II/III

5.95

6.14

7.54

Universitas

5.39

5.65

6.40

Keseluruhan

6.17

5.94

6.18

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Ketimpangan pendapatan
memburuk
Trendline-polynomial

Sources: (1) BPS for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005,2007-2013 see http://www.bps.go.id/tab_sub/view.php?kat=1&tabel=1&daftar=1&id_subyek=23&notab=6; for 2004 and 2006 see
BPS, Key Indicators of Indonesia, Special Edition 2007. (2) Satish Chandra Mishra, Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes and Policy Response, Strategic Asia,
March 2009: 17 for 1976, 1984, 1987, 1990, and 1993.

Indonesia has one of the

highest concentrations of
wealth
Shareof total wealth held byrichest 1percent of households(percent)
66.2

Russia

50.5
50.3
49.0

Thailand
Indonesia
India

45.7

Brazil

40.1
38.4
37.2

South Africa
United States
China

33.9
33.7
32.7
30.9
30.8
29.3
28.9
28.6
28.1
26.7

Korea
Mexico
Taiwan
Switzerland
Sweden
Denmark
Norway
Singapore
Germany
Greece

23.3
22.7
21.4
21.1

United Kingdom
Netherlands
France
Australia
Japan
Belgium

17.9
17.3

Source: World Bank, Indonesias Rising Divide, December 2015.

The crony-capitalism index

Billionaire wealth as a % of GDP, ranked by
crony-sector wealth, 2016

Where the living is

easy
Rent-seeking sectors
included in the index
Casinos
Coal, palm oil and timber
Defense
Deposit-taking banking and
investment banking
infrastructure and pipelines
Oil, gas, chemicals and other
energy
Ports, airports
Real estate and construction
Steel, other metals, mining and
commodities
Utilities and telecoms services
*Includes territories.
Source: The Economist, Daily chart: Comparing crony capitalism around
the world (http://econ.st/24zXocy).

The new age of crony capitalism

The Economist (http://econ.st/O5uB

Source: https://grrrgraphics.wordpress.com/2015/08/26/thecrony-capitalist-pyramid/

Vested interests are taking the

shine off democracy in
Southeast Asia

Source: Nikkei Asian Review

Bagian II
Indonesia Semakin Tercecer
dalam
Persaingan Global

Degree of openness: (X +
M)*/GDPPopulat
Exports
Imports
Country
ion
China
1,364.3
India
1,295.3
United States
318.8
Indonesia
254.4
Brazil
206.1
Japan
127.1
Philippines
99.1
Germany
80.9
Thailand
67.7
United Kingdom
64.5
South Africa
54.0
Korea, Rep.
50.4
Malaysia
29.9
Netherlands
16.8
Sweden
9.7
Hongkong SAR,
China
7.2
Denmark
5.6
Singapore
5.5

X + M

1981
7.5
5.8
9.5
29.0
9.4
14.4
23.8
20.2
23.8
25.4
28.4
32.1
51.6
55.9
28.7

2014
(X)
22.6
23.6
13.5
23.7
11.5
16.2
29.1
45.6
75.0
28.4
31.3
50.6
79.6
83.1
44.6

1981
7.5
8.4
9.9
24.0
9.8
13.7
27.2
24.1
30.1
22.5
30.4
37.2
57.7
51.2
28.1

2014
(M)
18.9
26.0
16.5
24.5
14.3
19.0
31.5
39.2
67.7
30.2
33.1
45.3
69.9
72.3
40.8

1981
15.0
14.2
19.4
53.0
19.2
28.1
51.0
44.3
53.9
47.9
58.8
69.3
109.3
107.1
56.8

2014
41.5
49.6
30.0
48.2
25.8
35.2
60.6
84.8
142.7
58.6
64.4
95.9
149.5
155.4
85.4

91.1
36.1
198.2

219.6
53.7
187.6

92.6
34.9
201.6

219.6
48.4
163.2

183.7
71.0
399.8

439.2
102.1
350.8

* Exports and imports of goods and services.

Source: World Bank: for exports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS);
and for imports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS.

Average exports and imports

as % of GDP

Source: World Bank: for exports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS);

and for imports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS.

Selected top-30 merchandise

2014
Manufactures
exporters
Value
Share (%)
(2009
)

(Billion US$)

Rank
1 (1)
2 (3)
3 (2)
4 (4)

Country
2014
2009
China
2,342
1,202
United States 1,621
1,057
Germany
1,508
1,121
Japan
684
581
Korea,
7 (9) Republic of
573
364
9
Hong Kong,
(11) China
524
330
14
(14) Singapore
410
270
16
United Arab
(19) Emirates
360
175
17
(18) Saudi Arabia
354
189
19
(22) India
322
155
20
Chinese
(17)
314World204
Sources:Taipei
World Trade Organization,
Trade
World Development Indicators.

Growth exports as %

(%)
of
total
2014 2009 2009-14 exports, 2014
12.4 9.6
95
94
8.6 8.5
53
62
8.0 9.0
34
83
3.6 4.7
18
88
3.0

2.9

57

86

2.8

2.6

59

70

2.2

2.2

52

71

1.9

1.4

1.9

1.5

1.7

1.2

106
87
108

n.a
11
64

1.7 2010
1.6and 2015;
54and World Bank,
99
Report

Selected top-30 merchandise

2014
Manufactures
importers
Value
Share (%)
(2009
)

(Billion US$)

Rank
1 (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
4 (5)

Country
2014
2009
United States 2,413
1,604
China
1,959
1,006
Germany
1,216
931
Japan
822
551
Hong Kong,
7 (9) China
601
353
9
Korea,
(12) Republic of
526
323
12
(15) India
463
244
15
(14) Singapore
366
246
18
Chinese
(18) Taipei
274
175
19
United Arab
(24) Emirates
262
140
21
(26)
239 World134
Sources:Brazil
World Trade Organization,
Trade
World Development Indicators.

2014
12.7
1.3
6.4
4.3

Growth imports as %

(%)
of
total
2009 2009-14 imports, 2014
12.7
50
73
8.0
95
58
7.4
31
69
4.4
49
50

3.2

2.8

70

90

2.8

2.6

63

52

2.4

1.9

90

44

1.9

1.9

49

62

1.4

1.4

57

n.a

1.4

1.1

87

n.a

1.3 2010
1.1and 2015;
78 and World Bank,
72
Report

Share of product groups in world

merchandise exports, 1980-2012

Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

Diversity of exported and

imported goods
Diversity of imported
goods (+)

Diversity of exported
goods (-)

Diversity of exported
goods (+)

Diversity of imported
goods (-)

Source: Bank Indonesia (November 24, 2015) based on UN COMTRADE

data.

Export performance: Indonesia is

the worst

Sources: World Bank, world Development Indicators for 2011-2014; BPS-Statistics Indonesia; and
tradingeconomics.com dor Thailand and Vietnam 2015.

Although trade account is back

to surplus, exports still
continued to
decline
Trade account
Billion US$

Growth (yoy)

Descriptio
n
Total export

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016*

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016*

190.0

182.6

176.0

150.3

56.6

-6.6

-3.9

-3.4

-14.6

-12.8

Non-oil and gas

153.1

149.9

146.0

131.7

51.3

-5.5

-2.0

-2.6

-9.8

-9.0

Oil and gas

37.0

32.6

30.0

18.6

5.3

-10.9

-11.8

-7.0

-38.2

-37.9

Total import

191.7

186.6

178.2

142.7

-53.9

8.0

-2.6

-4.5

-19.9

-11.6

149.1

141.4

134.7

118.1

-47.0

9.0

-5.2

-4.7

-12.3

-6.9

42.6

45.3

43.5

24.6

-6.9

4.6

6.4

-4.0

-43.4

-34.2

Surplus (Deficit)

(-1.6)

(-4.1)

(-2.2)

7.6

2.7

Non-oil and gas

4.0

8.6

11.3

13.6

4.3

(-5.6)

(-12.6)

(-13.5)

-6.0

-1.6

Non-oil and gas

Oil and gas

Oil and gas

* January-May.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

The fall in oil prices reduced

current account deficits
Current account and its components (US$ billions)
Current
Year

Nonoil
and
gas

account
0.1
2008
(0.0%) 15.1
10.6
2009
(2.0%) 25.6
5.1
2010
(0.7%) 27.8
1.7
2011
(0.2%) 34.5
-24.4 (2012
2.6%) 13.9
-29.1 (2013
3.2%) 15.5
-6.0 (Q1
2.6%)
4.4
-10.1 (Q2
4.2%)
1.5
-8.6 (Q3
3.7%)
2.7
-4.3 (Q4
2.0%)
6.8
-27.5 (*2014
In parentheses is percent
of GDP.
3.1%)
18.8

Oil

Servic
Gas
es

-8.4

16.1 -13.0

Primary Secondary
income

income

-15.2

5.4

-4.0

9.4

-9.7

-15.1

4.6

-8.7

11.9

-9.8

-20.7

4.6

-17.5

16.9

-9.8

-26.5

4.2

-20.4

15.2 -10.6

-26.6

4.1

-22.5

12.8 -12.1

-27.0

4.2

-6.4

3.5

-2.6

-6.0

1.1

-5.1

3.0

-3.6

-7.0

1.0

-5.7

3.0

-2.8

-6.8

0.9

-5.4

3.2

-3.1

-7.2

1.2

-23.9

12.1 -10.0

Source:
-29.7Bank Indonesia
5.2

US$ billions

Trade deficit: manufacturing

products
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Imports
.Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Exports

Surplus(deficit)

Trade deficit: food products

Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Skyrocketing fuel consumption, the

production slump, making imports
increasingly undermined the economy

1,398
(Exports
)

Source: BP Statistical Review of

World Energy.

Oil production:
A mixture of
hydrocarbons that
exists in liquid
phase in natural
-789
(Imports) underground
reservoirs and
remains liquid at
atmospheric
pressure after
passing
through surface
separating
facilities.
Oil consumption:
inland demand
plus aviation and
marine bunkers

he utilization of such implementation flexibility may well be

Indonesia has actively used

Figure 28: Indonesia has actively used restrictive
act onrestrictive
trade and investment
trade and investment measures
quo,
(number of restrictivemeasures on tradeand investmentspassed and
measures
to

ing.
ds
ity to
tions
rds
ies. As
vides

ion of
cies.
be
t for
he

implemented June2009-todate, select South East A sian countries)

250

Passed

Implemented

200
150
100
50
0

Source: Global Trade Alert (accessed 13/ 11/ 2015); World Bank staff
calculations
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Reforming Amid Uncertainty, December 2015, p. 35.

among South East Asian comparators (Figure 28). On the

Asymmetric Pattern

Indonesia's main export commodity

prices continue to be depressed
Palm oil Monthly Price
Rubber Monthly Price
over
the last
4 years
(US$/metric
ton)
(SGP/MYS, US$/kg)
1,400

7
6

1,200

5
1,000

706

800

1.67

2
600

35,000
30,000

100

25,000

80

16,707

20,000

51.2

15,000
10,000

2009-1
5
9
2010-1
5
9
2011-1
5
9
212-1
5
9
2013-1
5
9
2014-1
5
9
2015-1
5
9
2016-1
5

40

2009-1
5
9
2010-1
5
9
2011-1
5
9
212-1
5
9
2013-1
5
9
2014-1
5
9
2015-1
5
9
2016-1
5

Tin Monthly Price

(US$/metric ton)

Australian thermal coal

Monthly
Price (US$/metric ton)

120

60

5,000

2009-1
5
9
2010-1
5
9
2011-1
5
9
212-1
5
9
2013-1
5
9
2014-1
5
9
2015-1
5
9
2016-1
5

140

2009-1
5
9
2010-1
5
9
2011-1
5
9
212-1
5
9
2013-1
5
9
2014-1
5
9
2015-1
5
9
2016-1
5

400

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets (http:http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets),

downloaded on March 8, 20016.

Indonesias imported commodity

prices also dropped, but domestic

Soybeans Monthly Price
Beef Monthly price
prices
in opposite
direction
(US$/metric
ton)
(US$/kg)
700

600

500

300

2009-1
5
9
2010-1
5
9
2011-1
5
9
212-1
5
9
2013-1
5
9
2014-1
5
9
2015-1
5
9
2016-1

400

World Sugar Monthly Price

(US$/kg)

Maize Monthly Price

(US$/metric ton)

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets (http:http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets),

downloaded on March 8, 20016.

Commodity prices to stay weak in

2016

Note: Last observation is September 2015.

Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook; Understanding El Nio, October 2015, p.
3.

Make the momentum of the fall in

oil prices to consolidate the
economy

Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) May

20016

Source: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crudeoil.aspx

Brent Crude Last Day (ICE) May 2016

Source: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crudeoil-brent.aspxc

Gasoline prices in Malaysia

January
2016
RM 1.85
RM 2.25
RM 1.60

February
2016
RM 1.75
RM 2.05
RM 1.35

March 2016
RON 95
RM 1.60
RON 97
RM 1.95
Diesel
RM 1.35
Euro 5
diesel
RM 1.70
RM 1.45
RM 1.45
Exchange rate (Bank Indonesia selling
rate) on
January 4, 2016: RM 1 = Rp 3,233.10
February 1, 2016 = Rp 3,317.35
March 1, 2016 = Rp 3,214.64
January
February

2016
2016
March 2016
RON 95
Rp 5,981 Rp 5,805
Rp 5,143
RON 97
Rp 7,274
Rp 6,801
Rp 6,269
Diesel
Rp 5,173
Rp 4,478
Rp 4,340
Euro 5
diesel
Rp 5,496
Rp 4,810
Rp 4,661

Penyelundupan kian marak, sampai

kapan

Bareskrim Polri Selidiki Dugaan

Impor Jagung Ilegal

Food prices contributed

significantly to the inflation
Infla
tion
(y-oy)
Jan'
15
6.96
Feb 6.29
Mar 6.38

Contribution
of food (mto-m)
overall
deflation
deflasi
deflasi

Apr

6.79

deflasi

May

7.15

56.0%

Jun

7.26

61.1%

Jul

7.26

43.0%

Aug
Sep

7.18
6.83

48.7%
deflasi

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Dominant contributors to inflation

beras, telur ayam ras, daging ayam ras,
ikan segar
beras
beras, bawang merah
daging ayam ras, bawang merah, (beras
deflasi)
cabai merah, daging ayam ras, telur ayam
ras, bawang merah,
ikan segar, (beras deflasi)
cabai merah, daging ayam ras, telur ayam
ras, bawang merah,
ikan segar, (beras deflasi), beras, ikan
segar, daging sapi
ikan segar, daging ayam ras, cabai merah,
beras, daging sapi
beras, daging ayam ras, telur ayam ras,
dafing sapi
beras

emain
moderate in
the near termhas
Headline
inflation

se

nt

nt

ary.

moderated, but food price

pressures remain

Figure 6: Headline inflation has moderated, but food

price pressures remain
(changeyoy, percent; last observation November 2015)
12
Unprocessed food

10
8

Headline

6
4

Core

2
0
Jan-14

y
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
y
Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations
est Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Private Investment is Essential, March 2015, p. 5.
remains significant, though it eased somewhat, to 4.3

inflation rate is expected to

decline steadily and stabilized
BI target: 4% 1%
at around 4%
18.4

18
16
14
12.1

12
10

8.8

8.4
7.3

6.3

6.3
4.9

4.5

4
2
0
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

3.6
2.4

4.0

3.4