Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
MAHAVIDYALAYA
PROJECT TITLE
FORECASTING OF AIRPORT PLANNING
ID : BVM/15TSE003
PREPARED BY
SHALEHA VAHORA :
15TSE003
CONTENT
INTRODUCTION
FORECASTING REQUIREMENT
WHAT NEEDS TO BE FORECASTED
FACTORS AFFECTING FORECASTING
LEVELS OF FORECASTING
TYPES OF FORECASTING
FORECASTING METHODS
FORECASTING APPLICATION
INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS A FORECASTING?
FORECAST
=ESTIMATION/PREDICTIONS
Forecastingis the process of making
predictions
of the future based on past and
present data
and analysis of trends.
FORECASTING REQUIREMENT
Main forecasting is needed for:
Analysis of future needs
Financial plan(estimate costs and project the sources of
revenue)
Airside development planning
Landside development planning
Community side planning
Other factors:
Adequate level of services
Reducing probability of errors in planning process
Enhance decision making process
LEVELS OF
FORECASTING
TWO LEVELS
AGGREGATE
FORECASTING
DISAGGREGATE
FORECASTING
AGGREGATE
FORECASTING
Aggregate forecasts are forecasts of the total aviation
activity in a large region such as a country, state, or
metropolitan area.
Aggregate forecasts are made for such variables
The total revenue passenger-miles
Total enplaned passengers
The number of aircraft operations
Licensed pilots in the country.
DISAGGREGATE FORECASTING
Disaggregate forecasts deal with the activity at individual airports or
on individual routes.
It examine demand at local airports & development required
Disaggregate forecasts for airport planning determine such variables
as
the number of originations,
passenger origin-destination traffic,
the number of enplaned passengers,
the number of aircraft operations by air carrier and general aviation
aircraft at an airport.
TYPES OF FORECASTING
SHORT
TERM
(0-5YRS)
MEDIUM
TERM
(6-10YRS)
LONG TERM
(10-20YRS)
FORECASTING METHODS
Forecasting methods in general can be divided into three
broad categories:
QUANTITATIVE OR
MATHEMATICAL
DECISION ANALYSIS
QUALITATIVE OR
JUDGEMENTAL
QUANTITATIVE OR MATHEMATICAL
TIME
SERIES
METHOD
ECONOMIC
MODELLIN
G
EXTRAPOLATION:
STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES
TECHNIQUES
SMOOTHING
Linear
trend
Exponential trend
Parabolic
trend
ADVANTAGE
Short term forecasting
Eliminate cyclic variation
DISADVANTAGE
Inability to show a casual relationship between the
dependent and independent variables.
Degree of uncertainty increase.s with time
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING
Most complex and sophisticated technique.
Mathematical techniques to study the correlation between
dependent and independent variables.
Various techniques used in ECONOMIC MODELLING are:
1. Trip generation
2. Gravity models
3. Simple regression
4. Multiple regression
QUALITATIVE OR JUDGEMENTAL
DELPHI TECHNIQUES
TECHNOLOGIC
FORECASTING
DELPHI TECHNIQUES
A common approach being utilized more often today for
preparing forecasts by judgment is known as the Delphi
method.
RATE OR PRIORITY
DISTRIBUTED
REEVALUATE
DECISION ANALYSIS
Decision analysis should be considered as a
combination of both quantitative and qualitative
analysis methods.
In decision analysis, the analysts judgement is used in
preparing forecasts for a particular area of expertise in
combination with some statistical or mathematical
techniques including subjective inputs of probabilities.
MARKET SHARE
METHOD
PROBABILISTIC
ANALYSIS
ADVANTAGES
Development of micro forecasts
Dependence on existing sources
Minimize the forecasting cost
DISADVANTAGE
Dependence on stability and predictability of ratios
Uncertainty surround market share
FORECASTING APPLICATION
THE AIRPORT SYSTEM PLAN
THE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN
THANK YOU