PPA 691 Seminar in Public

Policy Analysis
Lectures 3&4 Problem Structuring

Nature of Policy Problems

Problem structuring, which is a continuously

recurring phase of policy inquiry in which analysts

search among competing problem formulations of
different stakeholders, is no doubt the most
important activity performed by policy analysts.
It is so important because policy analysts seem to
fail more often because they solve the wrong
problem than because they get the wrong solution
to the right problem.

Nature of Policy Problems

Beyond problem solving.
Policy analysis is a dynamic, multilevel process
in which methods of problem structuring take
priority over methods of problem solving (see
figure).

Priority of Problem Structuring in

Policy Analysis
Problem
Sensing

PROBLEM
SITUATION

Problem
Structuring

Problem
Dissolving

POLICY
PROBLEM

NO

Problem
Unsolving

RIGHT
PROBLEM?

YES
Problem
Solving

POLICY
SOLUTION

YES

POLICY
SOLUTION?

Problem
Resolving

Nature of Policy Problems

Beyond problem solving.
Distinctions among problem-related processes.
Problem sensing versus problem structuring.
Problem structuring versus problem solving.
Problem resolving versus problem unsolving and problem
dissolving.

Characteristics of problems.
Interdependence of policy problems (policy messes).
Analytic versus holistic approaches.

Subjectivity of policy problems.

Artificiality of policy problems.
Dynamics of policy problems.

Nature of Policy Problems

Characteristics of problems (contd.)
In short, systems of problems (messes) cannot be
decomposed into independent subsets without running
the risk of producing the right solution to the wrong
problem.
The whole is greater (qualitatively different) than the
sum of its parts.
A recognition of the interdependence, subjectivity,
artificiality, and dynamics of policy problems alerts us
to the possible unanticipated consequences that may
follow from policies based on the right solution to the
wrong problem.

Nature of Policy Problems

Problems versus issues.
If policy problems are really systems of
problems, then policy issues are equally
complex.
Policy issues reflect not only conflict over
courses of actions, but over definitions of the
problem.

Nature of Policy Problems

Major Issues

Secondary Issues

Functional Issues

Minor Issues

Nature of Policy Problems

Problems versus issues.
Major issues.
Those encountered at highest levels of government
within and between federal, state, and local
jurisdictions.
Involve questions of agency mission.

Secondary issues.
Located at the level of agency programs at the
federal, state, and local levels.
The setting of program priorities and the definition
of target groups and beneficiaries.

Nature of Policy Problems

Problems versus issues.
Functional issues.
Located at both the program and project levels.
Involve questions of budget, finance, and
procurement.

Minor issues.
Located at the level of specific projects.
Involve questions of personnel, staffing, employee
benefits, vacation times, working hours, and
standard operating procedures.

Nature of Policy Problems

Problems versus issues.
Strategic policies are policies where the
consequences are relatively irreversible.
Operational polices are policies where the
consequences are relatively reversible.

Nature of Policy Problems

Three classes of policy problems.
Well-structured.
Prototype: completely computerized decision
problems.

Moderately structured.
Prototype: prisoners dilemma.

Ill-structured.
Prototype: most important problems.

Nature of Policy Problems

STRUCTURE OF PROBLEM
Moderately
Structured

ELEMENT

Well structured

Ill Structured

Decision maker(s)

One or few

One or few

Many

Alternatives

Limited

Limited

Unlimited

Utilities (values)

Consensus

Consensus

Conflict

Outcomes

Certainty or risk

Uncertainty

Unknown

Probabilities

Calculable

Incalculable

Incalculable

Problem Structuring in Policy

Analysis

The requirements for solving ill-structured

problems demand that the analyst take an

active role in defining the problem.

Problem Structuring in Policy

Analysis

Creativity in problem structuring.

The product of the analysis is sufficiently novel that
most people could not or would not have arrived at the
same solution;
The process of analysis is sufficiently unconventional
that it involves the modification or rejection of previous
accepted ideas;
The process of analysis requires sufficiently high
motivation and persistence that analysis takes place
with high intensity or over long periods of time;

Problem Structuring in Policy

Analysis

Creativity in problem structuring (contd.).

The product of analysis is regarded as valuable
by analysts, policymakers, and other
stakeholders, since it provides an appropriate
solution to the problem; And.
The problem initially posed is so ambiguous,
value, and ill defined that part of the task is to
formulate the problem itself.

Problem Structuring in Policy

Analysis
Phases of problem structuring.
Problem search.
Problem definition.
Problem specification.
Problem sensing.

Problem Structuring in Policy

Analysis
METAPROBLEM
Problem
Definition

Problem
Search

PROBLEM
SITUATION

SUBSTANTIVE
PROBLEM

Problem
Sensing

Problem
Specification
FORMAL PROBLEM

Problem Structuring in Policy

Analysis

Errors of the third type (EIII).

How well do the substantive and formal problems
correspond to the original problem situation?
If most problem situations are messes, then models should
reflect complexity.

Types of errors.
Type I rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.
Type II accepting the null hypothesis when it is false.
Type III solving the wrong problem.

Types of Policy Models

Policy models are simplified representations

of selected aspects of a problem situation

constructed for specific purposes.
By definition, they are artificial constructs.

Descriptive models.
The purpose of descriptive models is to explain
and/or predict the causes and consequences of
policy choices.
Used to monitor the outcomes of policy actions and
to forecast performance.

Types of Policy Models

Normative models.
Explain and predict, but also to provide rules
and recommendations for optimizing some
utility or value.
Example: compound interest.

S n (1 r ) S 0
n

Forms of Policy Models

Verbal models.
Expressed in everyday language.
The equivalent of substantive problems.
Limitation: the reasons for recommendations and
predictions may be hidden.
Symbolic models.
Use mathematical symbols to describe relationships
among key variables believed to characterize a
problem. The premises must be made explicit.

Y a bX

Forms of Policy Models

Table 1. Mean education and mean income
Birmingham, Alabama neighborhoods
50000

Adjusted income 2000

40000

30000

20000

10000

Rsq = 0.6369

0.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

Proportion with high school or higher

.9

1.0

Forms of Policy Models

Procedural models.
Represent dynamic relationships among
variables believed to characterize a policy
problem.
Example:
Decision tree.

Methods of Problem Structuring

Boundary analysis (used to estimate boundaries of

metaproblem).

Saturation sampling.
Elicitation of problem representations.
Boundary estimation.

Classificational analysis.
Uses logical division and logical classification.
Criteria.

Substantive relevance.
Exhaustiveness.
Disjointness.
Consistency.
Hierarchical distinctiveness.

Methods of Problem Structuring

Hierarchy analysis.
Possible clauses, plausible causes, and
actionable causes.
Uses same rules as classificational analysis.
Synectics.
Personal analogies.
Direct analogies.
Symbolic analogies.
Fantasy analogies.

Methods of Problem Structuring

Brainstorming.
Groups should be composed of knowledgeable subjects.
Idea generation and idea evaluation should be kept
separate.
Atmosphere should be open and permissive.
Idea-evaluating should only begin after idea-generating
has ceased.
At the end of idea-evaluating, ideas should be
prioritized and incorporated into a proposal that
contains a conceptualization of the problem and its
potential solutions.

Methods of Problem Structuring

Multiple perspective analysis.
Technical perspective.
Organizational perspective.
Personal perspective.
Assumptional analysis.
Stakeholder identification.
Assumption surfacing.
Assumption challenging.
Assumption pooling.
Assumption synthesis.

Methods of Problem Structuring

Argumentation mapping.
Assessing probability and plausibility of policy
argument warrants.