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CHAPTER 8 : INTRODUCTION TO
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
-GROUP 5DISEDIAKAN OLEH : NORASALIZA BT NOOR MOHAMED SALEH
(GS45266)
SALEHA BINTI MOHAMAD SALLEH
(GS45439)
MOHD QARIB BIN ZAINAL ABIDIN
(GS45863)
NURUL SYAHIRAH BINTI RUSLAN
(GS45293)
1
8.1 THE
TESTING
LOGIC
OF
HYPOTHESIS
Introduction
Hypothesis testing is a statistical procedure that allows researcher to
use sample data to draw inferences about the population of interest.
Hypothesis testing is one of the most commonly used inferential
procedures
Although the details of a hypothesis test change from one situation to
another, the general process remains constant
Hypothesis test is a combine of the concepts z-scores, probability, and
the distribution of sample
HYPOTHESIS
ABOUT
POPULATION
(Concerns the
value of a
population
parameter)
OBTAIN A
RANDOM
SAMPLE FROM
THE
POPULATION
Depending on the type of research and the type of data, the details
of the hypothesis test change from one research situation to another
We examine a hypothesis test as it applies to the simplest possible
situation using a sample mean to test a hypothesis about a
population mean
Hypothesis testing is an inferential procedure that uses the data
from a sample to draw a general conclusion about the population
The procedure begins with a hypothesis about an unknown
population
The a sample is selected, and the sample data provide evidence that
either supports or refutes the hypothesis
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FIGURE 8.1
From the point of view of the hypothesis test, the entire population receives
the treatment and then a sample is selected from the treated population. In
the actual research study, a sample is selected from the original population
and the treatment is administered to the sample. From the either perspective,
the result is a treated sample that represent the treated population.
FIGURE 8.2
(Even with the stimulation, the mean test score is still 80)
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Continued.
Alternative hypothesis (H) :
ii.
The alternative hypothesis is the opposite of the null hypothesis, and it is called the
scientific, or alternative, hypothesis (H).
States that there is a change, a difference, or a relationship for the general population.
For this example, the alternative hypothesis states the stimulations does have an effect
on mathematical skill for the population and will cause a change in the mean score
The null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive. They cannot both be true, and one of them must be true. The data
determine which one should be rejected
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The set of potential samples is divided into those that are likely to be
obtained and those that are very unlikely to be obtained if the null
hypothesis is true
FIGURE 8.3
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FIGURE 8.4
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16
ii.
A Type II error : is defined as the failure to reject a false H. In this case, the
experiment fails to detect an effect that actually occurred. The probability of a Type II
error cannot be specified as a single value and depends in part on the size of the
treatment effect. It is
identified by the symbol (beta).
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A TYPE I ERROR
Occurs when a researcher rejects a null hypothesis that is actually
true.
In a typical research situation, a Type I error means that the
researcher concludes that a treatment does have an effect when,
in fact, it has no effect.
In most research situations, the consequences of a Type I error
can be very serious because the researcher has rejected the null
hypothesis and believes that the treatment has a real effect.
A Type I error means that this is a false report thus it lead to false
report in the scientific literature.
Alpha Level is the probability that a test will lead to a Type I error.
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A TYPE II ERROR
Occurs when a researcher fails to reject a null
hypothesis that is really fast (Is the failure to reject
a false null hypothesis)
Means that a treatment effect really exists but
the hypothesis test fails to detect it (hypothesis
test has failed to detect a real treatment effect)
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20
FIGURE 8.5
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we set = .05
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z = 1.96
= 89 80
4
= 9 =
4
Reject the
Null
Hypothesis
High Probability
Values if the Null
Hypothesis is True
Reject the
Null
Hypothesis
Extremely low
Probability Values
if Null Hypothesis
is True (Critical
Region)
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Assumptions For
Hypothesis test with z
Scores
Random Sampling :
- Selected randomly
- to generalize our findings from the sample to the
population. The sample must be representative of the
population from which has been drawn.
- Random sampling helps to ensure that it is representative.
Independent Observation :
- Two observation are independent if there is no
consistent, predictable relationship between the first
observation and the second.
- Two events ( or observation ) are independent if the
occurrence of the first event has no effect on the
probability of the second event.
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28
Continue
z = M = 89 80 = 9 = 1.50
M
6
6
Z scores is no longer beyond the critical boundary of
1.96. So the statistical decision is to fail to reject
the null hypothesis
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Continue.
THE NUMBER OF SCORES IN THE SAMPLE
Used the sample n= 25, student obtained a standard error of
M = 20
25
Score of z = 2.25.What happens if increase the sample size to n= 100 students,
the standard error becomes
= 20 = 2 points.
100
Z score become :
z = M = 89 80 = 9 = 4.50
M
2
2
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32
33
Continued..
Ex : general population has an average score of
= 80 and H1, state that test scores will be increased
by the brain stimulation.
H1 : >80 ( With the stimulation, the average score is
greater than 80 )
Null Hypothesis stimulation , does not the increase
score
Reject H0
Data indicate
that H0 is
wrong
M
=4
M
80
Z
0
1.6
5
35
M = 20
25
4
4
z, score of z = 1.75 is in
critical region for a one-tailed
test.
The Stimulation produced a
significant increase in scores, z =
1.75, p .05
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38
39
standard deviation
Magnitude of d
Evaluation of Effect
Size
d = 0.2
Small effect
d = 0.5
Medium effect
d = 0.8
Large effect
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standard deviation
Cohens d = 47 45
8
= 2
8
= 0.25
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Definition
The power of statistical test is the probability that
the test will correctly reject false null hypothesis.
The power of a test depends on a variety of
factors including the size of the treatment effect
and the size of the sample.
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-Probability of 1-B
Example
Find the probability of a Type II error
Power of test is 70%
( 1 B)
1 - 70%
= 30%
Type II error is 30%
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47
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Two possible
outcomes :
1.If
the
null
hypothesis is true,
there
is
no
treatment effect.
2.If the researchers
expectation is
correct, there is 8
point effect.
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Standard error
= 10 = 10
25
5
=2
52
Z = -0.04
Exact power of test is p=0.5160 or 51.60%
-Probability of rejecting Ho increases, the power of test increases.
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2. Alpha level
-Reduce the alpha level will also reduce the power of
test.
Example
alpha from .05 to .01
-The boundary is out to 2.58 , moved farther to the
right
-It is smaller portion so lower probability of
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Summary
The power of hypothesis test is defined as the probability that
the test will correctly reject the null hypothesis.
As the size of treatment effect increases, statistical power
increases.
Several factors that influenced power and can be controlled by
the experimenter :
i) A large sample results in more power than a small sample
ii) Increasing the alpha level increases the power
iii) A one tailed test has a greater power than a two-tailed test.
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