Energy Trends and

Technologies

Energy Trends and Technologies

Its not just about new technology
Energy so pervasive in society that
several factors must be considered
including the economics, politics, and
cultural context
Once these factors are considered,
then one can talk about the
technology

Drivers of the Energy Future

GDP & pop.
growth
urbanization

Demand
Growth

Supply
Challenges

Technolog
y and
policy

Local pollution
Climate change

Environment
al Impacts

Security
of Supply

Significant
resources
Nonconventionals

Dislocation of
resources
Import
dependence

Growth in Energy Demand Due to

Economic Activity
US

Australia
Russia

France
Japan
UK

S. Korea

Malaysia
China
India

Mexico
Brazil

Greece

Ireland

Energy Demand Breakdown vs.

Time

Energy Demand (bnboe)

BNBOE=Billion
Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030)
Barrels of Oil
Equivalent

1 BNBOE =
6.11x1018
Joules

Key:

- transport

- power

- industry

Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants

2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service

- other sectors
Source: IEA WEO 2004

Energy Supply
There are significant resources in the
ground
The world is not running out of
energy any time soon
However, a rise in unconventional
sources of energy is expected

Sources of Energy in the US since

1850

Source: EIA

Energy use around the world in 2011

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil

2011 Data (BP, 2012)

Energy transitions take time:

historically 25 years or more
Retail consumer fuel prices in the UK 1800-2000 (p/kWh)

Fouquet and Pearson (2003

Climbing the energy ladder

Data, IEA

World Energy Flows

World Energy Use Today

Energy demand growth is expected to exceed
population growth
A mix of energy sources at the global level for
decades
We aim to make energy transitions at speeds not
seen before
We are on a path to +3.5C with 80% locked-in
The opportunity for different energy paths as
countries develop or change
Equal opportunities for efficiency improvements
as for changing the sources of energy
The scale of investment needed in the energy
industry is at least $1Trillion every year over the

Sources of Energy: Global Scale

Nuclear

Oil

Hydro

Oil

Coa
l

Coal

Gas

Natural gas

Hydr
o
Nuclear

Projection of Primary Energy

Sources
04 30
Annual Growth
Rate (%)

6.5
1.3
2.0
0.7
2.0
1.3
1.8

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference

Note: Other renewables include

geothermal, solar, wind, tide and
wave energy for electricity
generation

Reserves & Resources (bnboe)

Fossil Fuel Supply

Yet to Find

Unconventional
Unconventional
R/P Ratio
164 yrs.

R/P Ratio
41 yrs.

R/P Ratio
67 yrs.

Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP

How Much Oil is Available and at

What Price?
Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price

Source: IEA (2005)

Security of Supply
There is a dislocation of resources
around the globe: the oil and gas are
in the ground not where the main
consumers of the product are
Thus the dislocation leads to
necessary trade, and a reliance by
the consuming countries on the
stability and security of distant
oil/gas sources

Dislocation of Fossil Fuel Sources

from their Consumers

Source: BP Statistical Review 2006

ROW = Rest of World

Conclusions about Energy Supply

Dislocation
The oil is where the people ARE NOT
and the coal is where the people ARE
As countries become increasingly
concerned about supply issues, they
will turn increasingly to coal (e.g.
China and partially the U.S.)

Environmental Impacts: Local

Pollution and Climate Change
Local pollution is not so problematic: the technology exists
and is available at cost
He gives LA as an example, how the local pollution has
improved over the past few years
As countries/governments get more concerned they will be
more willing to invest in the available technology to
remove the local pollution.
Climate change is more problematic
Evidence implies CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil
fuel use (concentration increases by ~2 PPM a year)
Many say that 2X the pre industrial level of CO2 (550 ppm)
is a widely discussed stabilization target (beyond which it
will exert a dangerous influence on the climate system

Things to Know About CO2 In the

Atmosphere in Order to Solve Problem
Emissions

Concentration

The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 1000 years

About half of what we put up there stays up there
A bend in the emissions graph will just delay the time that we cross the dangerous CO2 level
threshold
Rule of thumb: every 10 percent reduction in emissions buys you about 7 years before reaching
the max
We need to reduce emissions by a factor of two from current levels to remain stable at the 550

Social Barriers to Emission

Reductions

Climate threat is intangible and diffuse; can be

obscured by natural variability
Its difficult to attribute things to climate change
phenomena. Its hard to make the climate change
discussion real for people
contrast ozone, air pollution
Energy is at the heart of economic activity
CO2 timescales are poorly matched to the
political process
Buildup and lifetime are centennial scale
Energy infrastructure takes decades to replace
Power plants being planned now will be
emitting in 2050
Autos last 20 years; buildings 100 years
Political cycle is ~6 years; news cycle ~1 day
There will be inevitable distractions
a few years of cooling
economic downturns
unforeseen expenses (e.g., Iraq, tsunamis, )
Emissions, economics, and the priority of the
threat vary greatly around the world

Emissions Facts

21st Century emissions from the Developing World (DW) will be more
important than those from the Industrialized World (IW)

DW emissions growing at 2.8% vs. IW growing at 1.2%

DW will surpass IW during 2015 - 2025

DW

E
IW

Sobering facts

When DW ~ IW, each 10% reduction in IW emissions is compensated by <

4 years of DW growth
If Chinas (or Indias) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global
emissions would be 40% higher
Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology
development will play a central role

Emissions By Source (2000)

Note: land use
means
deforestation and
the like.
Land use and
agriculture
are major
contributors:
there are
large
portions of
the
emissions
spectrum
that are
unregulated
and need
work!

Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version

Technologies and Policies

There are 4 aspects of energy technologies that make them different:
1) Scale:
-Large infrastructure, amounts of material, and numbers of units (more cars
will be built in the next 20 years than were built in the whole 20 th century).
-Requires large capital and leverage of existing infrastructure.
-This is one reason way large companies should be involved in the
innovation chain early on.
2) Ubiquity of energy:
-There are many players with sometimes divergent interests (consumers,
suppliers, governments, NGOs, etc)
3) Longevity:
-Lifetimes of large equipment and/or interoperability imply slow changes
(e.g. BP cant just change its fuel because it must work with older cars too)
4) Incumbency:
-New energy technologies must compete in cost.
-They may not provide any qualitatively new service to the end user

Energy Technologies:
Examples

Primary Energy
Sources:
Light Crude
Heavy Oil
Tar Sands
Wet gas
CBM
Tight gas
Nuclear
Coal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal

Extraction & Conversion

Technologies:

End Use
Technologies:

Exploration
Deeper water
Arctic
LNG
Refining
Differentiated fuels
Advantaged chemicals
Gasification
Syngas conversion
Power generation
Photovoltaics
Bio-enzyimatics
H2 production & distribution
CO2 capture & storage

ICEs
Adv. Batteries
Hybridisation
Fuel cells
Hydrogen storage
Gas turbines
Building efficiency
Urban infrastructure
Systems design
Other efficiency
technologies
Appliances
Retail technologies

There are no silver bullets

But some have a larger calibre than others !

We have about 30-40 years to deal with these problems so we

have to find those technologies which will have the biggest

How Do We Assess Energy

Technologies?
Current technology status and plausible technical headroom: wind mills
have been around for millennia, and there will be incremental improvements,
but compare to other improvements in biological technologies
Budgets:

Economic (cost relative to other options)

Energy (output how many times greater than input)
Emissions (pollution and CO2; operations and capital)
Materiality (at least 1TW = 5% of 2050 BAU energy demand: technology has
to scale)
Other costs - reliability, intermittency etc.
Social and political acceptability

we also must know what problem we are trying to solve!

Problems to Solve
There are 2 problems that technology plays into
1) Concern over future availability/cost of oil and
gas
2) Concern relating to threat of climate change
Its really hard to beat liquid hydrocarbons
Gasoline has a lot more energy per unit mass
than liquid H2 or compressed gas
With small weight and small space, liquid
hydrocarbons are likely to stay around for a while
For liquid hydrocarbons, the real issue is where
you get your carbon from

So Where Does the U.S. Get Its

Carbon From?
Fuel

Fossil

Agriculture

Annual US Carbon (Mt C)

1000

15% of Transportation
Fuels

Biomass

Where Does the World Get Its

Electricity From? (2004)

Source: IEA WEO 2006

Electricity Cost vs. CO2 Cost

Solar PV
~$250

$0.35/gal or $0.09/litre

Efficiency vs. Conservation

Efficiency and conservation are NOT the same thing
Ex 1) when steam engines became more efficient, the
amount of coal used did not decrease, but actually increased
because people used it in more and different ways
Ex 2) supply limited situations: right now there is not enough
electricity in china to meet the demand for air conditioning. If
we make air conditioners more efficient we will keep more
Chinese cool, but will not reduce the demand for energy
because it is a supply limited situation
The surest way to induce conservation is to either increase
the price or to enact some sort of policy. But either is
politically difficult for a government to do and remain in
power

Likely 30 Year Energy Future

Hydrocarbons will continue to dominate transportation (high energy
density)
-conventional crude/heavy oils/CTL ensure continuity of supply at
reasonable cost
Vehicle efficiency can be at least doubled (hybrids, plug in hybrids, HCCI,
diesel)
In the power sector coal (security) and gas (cleanliness) will continue to
dominate heat and power
-nuclear energy (security,CO2) will be a fixed, if not growing, fraction of
the mix
-renewables will find some application but will remain a small fraction of
the total
-advanced solar a wildcard
Demand reduction will happen where economically effective or via policy
CO2 emissions (and concentrations) continue to rise absent dramatic
global action

Necessary Steps for the

Technology
We need technically informed, coherent, and stable government
policies
-educated decision makers and an educated public
For short/mid term technologies, we should avoid winners/losers
-a level playing field for all applicable technologies
-emissions trading
For long term technologies, we need support for pre-competitive
research like fission, PV, biofuels, etc
Business needs reasonable expectation of carbon price
Universities/labs must recognize and act on importance of energy
research (technology and policy)
Need business to get involved in this research in the next several
decades since business like it or not is the way to get things done