Analytics:

Statistics for
Fundraisers
May 15, 2013

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The key to maximizing value and sustained growth is

getting the right information to the right people at the
right time

ANALYTICS
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What We Will Cover

Data Sources
Types of Analytics
Campaign Analytics
Forecasting Analytics
Monitoring Outcomes

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Old Model
New Model need a plan to integrate

DATA SOURCES
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Sources: The Old Model

Web Sites

TM

Donor/
Custome
r
Direct
Mail

Events/Maj
or Gifts

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You Need a Plan that Integrates the

Data

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Integrating Data to Develop

Strategy

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Balancing Analytical Needs

Description of Types of Analytics

TYPES OF ANALYTICS
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Analytics Balancing LCLS

There are basically 4 types of data
that need to constantly be balanced
in decision making each has
different value

L Lagging Benchmarking
C Current Campaign Reports/Testing
L Leading Forecasting/Budgeting
S Strategic Scenario Building/Multi-Year
Growth

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Analytics a Few Types

Campaign Analytics
Performance
Reports
Package Testing
Results

Forecasting
Analytics
Budget Forecasting
Cash Flow
Forecasting

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Analytics a Few Types

Digital Media
Analytics
Web Site Traffic
Analysis
Paid Advertising ROI

Communication
Analytics
Segmentation
Analytics
Predictive Analytics

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Analytics a Few Types

Performance Indicator Reports
Trend Analysis (historic donor value)
Multi-Year Forecasting (future donor
value)

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Performance Reports
Metrics

CAMPAIGN ANALYTICS
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Performance Reports
Key metrics help determine
campaign success
What are they?
How are they calculated?
Why is it important? Why may it be
limiting?

Which is most important when?

It depends on your goals!
It depends on the program!
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Response Rate
What?
The percentage of the quantity mailed that
responded

How?
(# of Gifts/Quantity)*1000

Why important?
Indicator of package success. More gifts the better!

Why limiting?
Does not factor in revenue, size makes a difference.

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Average Gift
What?
The average size of the contribution

How?
Gross Income/# of Gifts

Why important?
The higher the gift, the more valuable the
donor

Why limiting?
Does not factor in response, large gifts can
skew performance

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Gross/M
What?
Gross income per thousand pieces mailed

How?
(Gross Income/Quantity Mailed) * 1000

Why important?
The more revenue per piece, the better

Why limiting?
Does not factor in cost

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Cost/M
What?
Cost per thousand pieces mailed

How?
(Total Cost/Quantity Mailed) * 1000

Why important?
Tracks costs

Why limiting?
Test vs. rollout pricing need to be
considered

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Investment/Donor (CTA)
What?
Net Investment to acquire a new donor

How?
Net income/# of Gifts

Why important?
Factors in response AND revenue AND cost

Why limiting?
Only used in prospecting, but its a key
indicator!

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Acquisition Campaign Report

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Net/M
What?
Net income per thousand pieces mailed

How?
Gross/M Cost/M
(Net Income/Quantity Mailed) * 1000

Why important?
Factors in gross and cost, measures net productivity

Why limiting?
Not really applicable in prospecting when there is
traditionally no net revenue

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Appeal Campaign Report

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Which variable is most important

when? It depends, but general rule
of thumb is

Acquisition Investment/Donor (CTA)

Appeals Net/M
Renewals Response Rate
Upgrades Average Gift

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Package Testing Why?

Build on whats working, change
what isnt
Tweak Tests, New Package

Move the needle on a specific

variable based on program goals
Response rate, Average gift, Net (etc.)

Stay one step ahead of your peers!

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Package Testing When?

As often as possible!
Try and test at least one variable in
every mailing

Tests arent limited to creative/design

RFM segment testing in appeals
List testing in prospecting (80/20 rule)

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Package Testing How?

Ensure there is enough quantity (and
gifts) to be statistically significant
Test only one variable at a time
Make sure segments are equally
distributed
Ensure you wait long enough to make
a conclusion!

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Package Testing For

Statisticians

Confidence Intervals
Bell Curves
Z Score
P Value

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Bell Curve

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

Lower

Actual

Upper

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Bell Curves Intersecting

Package A

Package B

Overlap?

Lower (A)

Upper (A)Lower (B)

Upper (A)

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Acquisition Testing Report

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Appeal Testing Report

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Package Testing For Everyone Else

9 times out of 10 the result will be
the same
Lower and Upper Bounds
Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios
Overlap
Which metrics to consider depend on
goals of the test

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Budget Forecasting
Cash flow Forecasting
Multi-year Forecasting

FORECASTING ANALYTICS
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Budget Analysis
Question: Based on where I am
today in my fiscal year cash flow and
how campaigns have been
performing, where am I going to end
the fiscal year.
Approach: Combining current cash
flow to date along with a forecast of
active campaigns gives an
excellent real-time approximation of
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total fiscal year revenue.
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Budget Analysis: Tools

Campaign Budgets: All TM, DM, Web,
etc. budgets with expected
outcomes.
Predictive Flow: using different tools
for each channel flow out budget
(i.e., DM would use a standard days
out).
Estimation of Carry In/Carry Out:
Based on timing of prior FY
campaigns how much revenue will be
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carried into this FY. Same for
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Budget Analysis: Results

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Forecast Analysis
Question: Recent performance
metrics are soft compared to last year,
how is recent performance going to
affect my fiscal year budget.
Approach: Look at recent cash flow
trends based on which campaigns are
active and use tools to forecast the
remaining months.
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Forecast Analysis: Tools

Historical performance by day.
Time-series analysis to utilize recent
trends along with historical
performance to predict outcome.
Create several forecasts based on
assumptions of environment
changes.

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Forecast Analysis - Results

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Multi-Year Forecasting
Question: Determine the baseline scenario of
business models based on declining performance.
Analyze what investment levels are realistic given
current trends in each business model

Approach: Establish benchmarks for growth in

each program areas including investment levels,
return on investment targets, donor return rates,
retention targets, donor conversion, and upgrading
targets, etc.
Identify the donor segments of greatest value to guide
investment decisions.

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Multi-Year Forecasting - Tools

Segment the file into the investment
channels (i.e., DM acquisition, Web Ads, F2F,
etc.)
Estimate performance of the new acquisition
channels based on the investment.
Use historical activation, retention and
upgrading measures to predict future donor
value.
Create scenarios based on modifications of
investments or changes in the base file.

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Multi-Year Forecasting Results

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Thank you!
Jim Emlet
Principal
202-452-9732
jemlet@integral-dc.com
www.integral-dc.com

Bryan Evangelista
Account Supervisor
202-296-9660
bevangelista@lautmand
c.com
www.lautmandc.com

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