Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Precipitation in Atlanta
Steven DiNapoli
EAS 4803 YW
April 22, 2008
Introduction
Current Atlanta Drought
Projected to continue due to La Nia conditions
Many previous droughts were exacerbated by
La Nia (e.g. 1950s, 2000)
Objective of Analysis Analyze relationship
between ENSO and precipitation in Atlanta
ENSO Data
ONI Oceanic Nio Index
Measure of 3-month running mean SST
anomalies in the Eastern Pacific
Positive Values correspond to El Nio conditions
ONI Data
4
2
0
-2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
Atlanta Precipitation
2000
2010
Atlanta Precipitation
ONI Data
4
ONI Value (deg. C)
Hartsfield-Jackson
International
Airport
2
Monthly totals from NCDC
0
Much more variability than ONI data
-2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Numerous
outlier
points
Year
Atlanta Precipitation
20
Precipitation (in.)
2010
15
10
5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
18
16
Precipitation (in.)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
ONI value
1.5
2.5
p-Value = 0.0687
Correlation is statistically insignificant
p-value should be less than 0.05
10
9
8
Precipitation (in.)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
ONI value
1.5
2.5
p-value = 0.0048
Correlation is significant
2
1
0
-1
-2
1950
1960
1970
1960
1970
Precipitation (in.)
70
1980
1990
Year
Yearly Precipitation
2000
2010
2000
2010
60
50
40
30
1950
1980
Year
1990
65
Precipitation (in.)
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
ONI value
0.5
1.5
Analysis of Attempt #3
Much less noise in the data
Outlier points removed
p-value = 0.0625
Significance lost due to lack of data points (58 vs. 696)
Conclusion
All major droughts occurred during La Nia
Not all La Nia events lead to drought
The opposite is not always true for El Nio
Questions?