Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Opportunities in India
March 2004
Agenda
Economic backdrop
In summary
GDP growth
Ten
year
average of
6.0%
50
billion in
FY2003
US$
90 billion
Short
term debt
0.8%
of GDP
External debt
20%
of GDP
Sectoral
share of GDP
growth
FY2004
(%)
Services
56.1
7.3
Industry
21.8
5.0
Agriculture
22.1
10.7
GDP
7.4
Information
Informationtechnology
technology
Business
Businessprocess
processoutsourcing
outsourcing
Financial services
Financial services
Entertainment,
Entertainment,media,
media,travel
travel&
&tourism
tourism
Industry
Agriculture
Strong
Strongdomestic
domesticdemand
demand
Improving competitiveness
Improving competitivenesslower
lower
interest
rates,
increased
productivity,
interest rates, increased productivity,
better
betterworking
workingcapital
capitalmanagement,
management,
deleveraging
deleveraging
Export
Exportthrust
thrust
Favourable
Favourableclimatic
climaticconditions
conditionswith
with
good
goodmonsoon
monsoon
Modernisation
Modernisationof
ofagriculture
agriculturescale
scale
and
farming
methods
and farming methods
underpinned by strong
infrastructure growth
Construction
Constructionof
ofGolden
GoldenQuadrilateral
Quadrilateral
Roads
and
andNorth-South,
North-South,East-West
East-Westcorridors
corridors
13,000
13,000km
kmlong
long--worlds
worldslargest
largest
single
highway
project
single highway project
Boosting
Boostingdemand
demandfor
forsteel,
steel,cement,
cement,
commercial
commercialvehicles
vehicles
Basic
Basictelephone
telephonesubscriber
subscriberbase
baseof
of
Industry
39.9
39.9million,
million,growing
growingat
atan
anaverage
average
rate
rateof
of23%
23%over
overlast
last77years
years
Cellular
Cellularsubscriber
subscriberbase
baseof
of11.7
11.7million,
million,
growing
at
an
average
rate
of
88%
growing at an average rate of 88%over
over
last
6
years
last 6 years
Positive
Positiveimpact
impacton
onefficiency
efficiencyof
offirms
firms
and
andservices
servicesexports
exports
Certain
Certainmis-steps
mis-stepshave
haveconstrained
constrained
Power
Urban
infrastructure
development
developmentin
inthis
thissector
sector
Now
Nowbeing
beingcorrected
correctedthrough
throughpolicy
policy
initiatives
initiatives
Electricity
ElectricityAct
Actpassed
passedby
byParliament
Parliament
New
Newfocus
focuson
oncreating
creatingcapacities
capacitiesas
as
well
wellas
asenhancing
enhancingtransmission
transmissionand
and
distribution
distributionefficiency
efficiency
Need
Needfor
forurban
urbanrejuvenation
rejuvenationhousing,
housing,
roads,
roads,utilities
utilities
Local
Localbodies
bodiesin
inseveral
severalcities
citiestaking
taking
initiatives
in
this
area
initiatives in this area
35 - 49 years
17%
> 50 years
14%
< 14 years
34%
15 - 35 years
35%
Source: Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India
22.5%
17%
11%
10.1%
5%
1970-71
1985-86
10
2000-01
200102
58.2
5
50
25
25.6
0
~
~
67.1
3
1990-91
1997-98
Merchandize exports
1999-00
Services exports
79.4
4
95.2
3
2001-02
2002-03
104.23
83.80
74.81
75
78.00
External debt
50
25
Gap
5.80
1990-91
Source: RBI
12
29.42
~
~
Forex reserves
1999-00
2002-03
Enhanced corporate
competitiveness
Return on Equity (PAT /
Equity)
21%
14%
0.9
7%
0.6
0.2
0%
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01
India
Shanghai A (Chinese cos. listed in Shanghai SE)
H-shares (Chinese cos. listed in HK SE)
Red chips (Chinese Govt. controlled cos. listed in HK SE)
Source: Deutsche Bank
13
Average
Full
14
..driving transformational
change
50% of GDP
Significant contributor to exports
15
Agenda
Economic backdrop
In summary
17
Indian
economy
Financial
sector
Extensive
regulation
Focus on
industrial
sector
Highly
segmented
Public
sector
dominance
The 1990s
Liberalisatio
n
Globalisation
Structural
change
services
Opening up of
various subsectors
Private sector
participation
Today
Resilient
industry
Buoyant
services
sector
Diversified
financial
groups
Globally
benchmarked
Diversification
Countrywide coverage
Large number of players
Increasingly sophisticated
financial markets
Technology
Regulation
19
Emergence of integrated
players
Diversifying capital
deployment
Leveraging synergies
Robust regulatory
system aligned to
international standards
Efficient monetary
management
Sector snapshot
Size
Number of
banks
Branch
network
20
Total
Totalassets
assetsof
ofUS$
US$335
335billion
billion
Over
Over290
290scheduled
scheduledbanks
banks
Public sector: 27
Public sector: 27
Private
Privatesector:
sector:new
new9;
9;old
old
Foreign: 37
24
24
Foreign: 37
Over
Over190
190regional
regionalrural
ruralbanks
banks
Over
Over66,000
66,000branches
branches
Public
Publicsector:
sector:46,000
46,000
Private
Privatesector:
sector:5,500
5,500
Foreign:
190
Foreign: 190
Regional
Regionalrural:
rural:14,400
14,400
Structural issues
Non-performing assets
Legacy systems
Low
levels of technology
Limited
22
30%
20.0%
15%
10.0%
4%
23
India
S. Korea
J apan
Malaysia
0.0%
US$ bn
40%
30.0%
Thailand
Position much
stronger than
other Asian
economies
43%
40.0%
China
43%
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
24
Sell products
Product research:
what will sell?
Product sales and
profitability targets
Product specialist
groups
Introduce new
offerings every few
years/months
Branch banking
Focus - customer
acquisition
25
transactions
in March
2000
Share of
transactions
in July 2003
Branches
94%
28%
ATMs
3%
51%
Internet
2%
10%
Call centre
1%
11%
60
55
50
52
40
36
30
33
27
20
10
18
14
0
Korea
Taiwan
Malaysia
Thailand
India
27
Middle
Middle &
& high
high income
income
households
households increased
increased from
from
11.6
11.6 million
million in
in fiscal
fiscal 1995
1995 to
to
25.7
25.7 million
million in
in fiscal
fiscal 2002
2002
Interest
Interest rates
rates on
on residential
residential
mortgages
mortgages have
have reduced
reduced by
by
7%
7% over
over last
last 44 years
years
Entry
Entry of
of banks
banks has
has led
led to
to
increased
increased competition
competition and
and
coverage
coverage
Increasing
Increasing use
use of
of technology
technology
further
further enhancing
enhancing reach
reach and
and
accessibility
accessibility
14.0
16.5
12.9
12.0
9.4
10.0
8.0
7.3
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1999-00
Housing finance
Commercial vehicle finance
Consumer durable finance
28
2000-01
Car finance
2-wheeler finance
2001-02
2002-03
fee-based services
Treasury and risk management products
Facilitating resource raising by corporates
through syndication, securitisation and marketmaking
New approach to SME lending
Sophisticated
banking services
Scientific portfolio construction and management
29
14.2
%
10.0%
Premium as a % of GDP
12.1
%
9.0%
8.0%
6.0%
5.2%
4.0%
2.9%
2.7%
2.2%
Thailand
India
China
2.0%
0.0%
United
Kingdom
South
Korea
United
States
Malaysia
Life insurance
General insurance
30
Area of large
NRI
population
UK
(0.72 mn)
US
(1.2
mn)
Number of
NRIs
GCC
West
Indies
Areas of
large PIO
population
Nepal
(4.1
mn)
Zimbabw
e/
Uganda
South
Africa
Singapor
e/
(0.14
mn
Malaysia
NRIs)
Fiji
Australia and
New Zealand
(< 0.1
mn)
Agenda
Economic backdrop
In summary
32
In summary
Immense
Improved
as a manufacturing base
Globally
33
In summary (contd).
Focus
Corporate
34
Thank you
35