GEOG 111/211A

Transportation Planning

UTPS (Review from last time)

Urban Transportation Planning System
Also known as the Four - Step Process
A methodology to model traffic on a network
Developed in 1962 (Chicago)

Four Steps:

Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
Traffic Assignment

Estimate Person Trips for each TAZ

Distribute Person Trips from TAZ to TAZ
Convert Person Trips to Vehicle Trips
Assign Vehicles to the Network

Oct/Nov 2004

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Survey Data interviews

of persons about their
behavior
Models of behavior
extract key aspects to
capture most variation
Use models
incorporate models into
a computerized map

Transportation Planning

If no survey available?

Discuss options in class!

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Transportation Planning

The Four Steps:

Trip Generation = Estimate Person Trips for each TAZ
Trip Distribution = Distribute Person Trips from TAZ to
TAZ
Mode Choice = Convert Person Trips to Vehicle Trips
Traffic Assignment = Assign Vehicles to the Network
Pre 4-step = Land Use and Demographics?
Post 4-step = Emissions, Traffic Simulation, Link by Link
Evaluation

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Transportation Planning

Key Concepts of UTPS

TAZ: Traffic Analysis Zone
A TAZ is an arbitrary subdivision of the study area
TAZs are used in trip generation and trip distribution
TAZs may be any shape or size, but US Census Blocks,
Block Groups, and Tracts are often used

Block
i.e., a
city block

Block Group

Tract

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Transportation Planning

Key Concepts of UTPS

Centroid
Every TAZ (Gate and Internal Zone) has a centroid,
usually placed roughly at the geographic center of the
TAZ
All trips to or from a TAZ are assumed to start or end at
the centroid

Discussion
Why do we use TAZs and centroids to model trips?

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Transportation Planning

Key Concepts of UTPS

Gate TAZs
TAZs placed outside the Study Area where major roads
cross the boundaries of the study area
Used to model External Trips (i.e., trips with an origin or
destination or both outside the study area)
Gate TAZs represent all areas outside of the study area
Network
Gate TAZ
(Study Area)

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Transportation Planning

Centroid
Gate TAZ

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Transportation Planning

Every zone is a node (the centroid) with an identifier and type

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Transportation Planning

Trip Generation
Additional suggested reading material:
Ortuzar & Willumsen, third edition,
Chapter 4.

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Transportation Planning

Trip Generation Objectives

Estimate amount of trip making going out of a TAZ
Estimate amount of trip making going into a TAZ
Account for differences among TAZs due to person
and household characteristics
Account for differences among TAZs due to
business (establishments) characteristics
Develop functions to predict future amount of trip
making

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Transportation Planning

Trip Generation Usual Process

Collect Data, usually by Surveys and Census
Sociodemographic Data and Travel Behavior Data

Create Trip Generation Models

Estimate the number of Productions and Attractions
for each TAZ, by Trip Purpose
Balance Productions and Attractions for each Trip
Purpose
Total number of Productions and Attractions must be
equal for each Trip Purpose

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Transportation Planning

Trip Generation Models

Regression Models
Explanatory Variables are used to predict trip generation rates,
usually by Multiple Regression

Trip Rate Analysis

Average trip generation rates are associated with different trip
generators or land uses

Cross - Classification / Category Analysis

Average trip generation rates are associated with different trip
generators or land uses as a function of generator or land use
attributes

Models may be TAZ, Household, or Person - Based

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Transportation Planning

Usual Unit of Analysis

TAZ - zonal rates (Number of trips as a function of a
zones population characteristics)
Household rates (Number of trips as a function of
household characteristics)
Person rates (Number of trips as a function of person
characteristics)
NEW (PennState Research)! Multilevel rates (Number
of trips as a function of person & household & TAZ
characteristics)

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Transportation Planning

Units and Models

TAZ-based models = productions and attractions
converted to origins and destinations
Household and/or person - based models = origins
and destinations
Establishment - based = attractions need to convert
to destinations

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Transportation Planning

Common Trip Definitions in CE422

Trip: a one - way movement from one place to another
HB = Home Based: a trip where the home of the traveler is
either the origin or the destination of the trip
HBW = Home Based Work: trips between home and work
HBNW = Home Based Non-Work: trips between home and
shopping, also called HBS (Home Based Shopping)
HBO = Home Based Other: trips between home and a non
- work / shopping location
NHB = Non Home Based: trips where neither end of the
trip is the home of the traveler

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Transportation Planning

Related Definitions
1.Home-based school trip
Home

1+2+3=Tour or Trip
Chain (home-based)

School
2.NonHome-based
work trip

3. Home-based
work trip

Work

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Transportation Planning

Productions - Attractions
All Home - Based Trips
Residential
Area

Production

Attraction

Production

Attraction

Non-Residential
Area

Non - Home - Based Trips

Non-Residential
Area

See also OW-p. 124

Production

Attraction

Attraction

Production

= Origin
= Destination

Non-Residential
Area

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Transportation Planning

Trip Balancing Methods

Hold Productions Constant
Attractions are multiplied by the ratio of the sum of non-gate
productions to the sum of non - gate attractions
Most common form of trip balancing

Hold Attractions Constant

Productions are multiplied by the ratio of the sum of non-gate
productions to the sum of non - gate attractions

Hold Neither Productions or Attractions Constant

Not used very often

Note: Gate Productions and Attractions are not

in this balancing process

included

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Transportation Planning

Examples
http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/clearinghouse/docs/Time-D
ay/
- discussion of time-of-day issues
http://www.psrc.org/datapubs/index.htm (this is the
metropolitan plan where models are used)
http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/clearinghouse/ <the
ultimate web site for GEOG 111/211A>
All sites verified October 2004

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Transportation Planning

Gate Trip Estimation

Gate Trips Must be Modeled Separately
Gates have specific traffic volumes associated with them
Gates do not have sociodemographic data
Gates may represent trips with extremely variable trip
lengths

Gate Trip Modeling

Correlate percentages of traffic volumes to different trip
purposes (e.g., X% * Total daily volume observed = trips
for commuting)

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Transportation Planning

ITE Trip Generation Manual

Trip Rate Analysis Model
Univariate regression for trip generation
Primarily for businesses (attraction rates)
Explanatory variables are usually number of employees or
square footage
Models developed using data from national averages and
numerous studies from around the US

Copies of the ITE Trip Generation Manual may be

Found in the Hammond and PTI Libraries

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Transportation Planning

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Transportation Planning

TAZ Issues
TAZ Scale

Modeling Accuracy

Data Availability

Block

Good

Poor

Block Group

Not Good

Excellent

Tract

Poor

Good

Data availability limited by privacy issues

Larger TAZs, with complete data, are no longer
necessarily homogeneous
Model accuracy decreases with larger TAZs

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Transportation Planning

Model Formulation and Surveys

Privacy
May limit data collection efforts
Private information must remain secure

Response Rate
Good survey should have at least 85% response rate

Representative Sample Size

Pop. representation most important

Model Stability and Transferability

Over time, behavior may change
Behavior is not necessarily the same from place to place

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Transportation Planning

Trip Generation Example

Similar to the lab exercise

From the Puget Sound Region in 1989
Subsistence (work + school trips)
These are one way trips (origins) instead of
productions

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Transportation Planning

Sample Descriptives
Descriptive Statistics

HHSIZE
TOT6_17
TOT1_5
NUMVEH
AGE
EMPLOY
SFREQ1
Valid N (listwise)

N
1621
1621
1621
1621
1559
1621
1621
1559

Minimum
1.00
.00
.00
.00
15.00
.00
.00

Class: What do you observe?

Maximum
7.00
5.00
3.00
8.00
90.00
1.00
7.00

Mean
2.7378
.4349
.2295
2.3146
46.9602
.6539
.8421

Std.
Deviation
1.1721
.7983
.5581
1.1126
14.2144
.4759
.8740

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Class: Interpret the model

Transportation Planning

Trip Generation Linear Regression

Model for Subsistence
Trips
Coefficients
a

Model
1

(Constant)
HHSIZE
TOT6_17
TOT1_5
NUMVEH
AGE
EMPLOY

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
.409
.120
9.99E-03
.035
2.50E-02
.042
-.116
.049
-8.5E-03
.019
-4.4E-03
.002
.986
.043

a. Dependent Variable: SFREQ1

Standardi
zed
Coefficie
nts
Beta
.013
.023
-.075
-.011
-.071
.536

t
3.413
.283
.595
-2.380
-.437
-2.685
22.838

Sig.
.001
.778
.552
.017
.662
.007
.000

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Transportation Planning

Goodness of fit
ANOVA b
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
385.290
802.521
1187.811

df
6
1552
1558

Mean
Square
64.215
.517

F
124.186

Sig.
.000a

a. Predictors: (Constant), EMPLOY, TOT1_5, TOT6_17, NUMVEH, AGE, HHSIZE

b. Dependent Variable: SFREQ1

Model Summary

Model
1

R
.570a

R Square
.324

Adjusted R
Square
.322

Std. Error
of the
Estimate
.7191

a. Predictors: (Constant), EMPLOY, TOT1_5, TOT6_17,

NUMVEH, AGE, HHSIZE

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Lets Improve the Model

If (age < 20) Teen = 1 .

If (age >= 20 and age < 35) Young=1.
If (age >= 35 and age < 65) Midage=1.
If (age >= 65 and age < 75) Senior=1.
If (age >=75) VSenior=1.

Transportation Planning

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Transportation Planning

Descriptives of the New Vars

Descriptive Statistics

YOUNG
TEEN
MIDAGE
SENIOR
VSENIOR
Valid N (listwise)

N
1621
1621
1621
1621
1621
1621

Minimum
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00

Maximum
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

Mean
.1777
1.73E-02
.6268
.1154
2.47E-02

Std.
Deviation
.3824
.1303
.4838
.3196
.1552

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Transportation Planning

Linear Regression
Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
EMPLOY
TEEN
YOUNG
MIDAGE
SENIOR
VSENIOR

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
.221
.094
1.037
.043
.659
.163
-.133
.100
-4.2E-02
.094
-.118
.106
-.197
.146

a. Dependent Variable: SFREQ1

Standardi
zed
Coefficie
nts
Beta
.565
.098
-.058
-.023
-.043
-.035

t
2.355
24.120
4.050
-1.321
-.451
-1.106
-1.343

Sig.
.019
.000
.000
.187
.652
.269
.179

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Transportation Planning

Leisure Trip Generation

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
EMPLOY
TEEN
YOUNG
MIDAGE
SENIOR
VSENIOR

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
2.298
.191
-9.9E-02
.087
-4.8E-02
.331
1.38E-02
.204
-4.8E-02
.190
-.170
.216
-.545
.298

Standardi
zed
Coefficie
nts
Beta
-.032
-.004
.004
-.016
-.037
-.058

a. Dependent Variable: LFREQ1

The same model as for subsistence did not work!!!!!

t
12.057
-1.129
-.146
.068
-.253
-.786
-1.831

Sig.
.000
.259
.884
.946
.800
.432
.067

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Transportation Planning

New model for leisure

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
LICENSE
WKDIST
TOT6_17
TOT1_5
NUMVEH
SEX
STUDENT
S1

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
1.682
.178
.339
.166
-8.0E-05
.000
.261
.045
7.94E-02
.064
2.64E-02
.033
-8.8E-02
.073
-1.4E-03
.001
9.96E-02
.046

a. Dependent Variable: LFREQ1

Standardi
zed
Coefficie
nts
Beta
.052
-.027
.144
.031
.020
-.030
-.034
.054

t
9.425
2.045
-1.050
5.771
1.241
.795
-1.206
-1.384
2.171

Sig.
.000
.041
.294
.000
.215
.427
.228
.167
.030

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Transportation Planning

Goodness of fit
ANOVA b
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
95.414
3306.909
3402.323

df
8
1612
1620

Mean
Square
11.927
2.051

F
5.814

a. Predictors: (Constant), S1, SEX, STUDENT, TOT1_5, TOT6_17, LICENSE,

WKDIST, NUMVEH
b. Dependent Variable: LFREQ1
Model Summary

Model
1

R
.167a

R Square
.028

Adjusted R
Square
.023

Std. Error
of the
Estimate
1.4323

a. Predictors: (Constant), S1, SEX, STUDENT, TOT1_5,

TOT6_17, LICENSE, WKDIST, NUMVEH

Sig.
.000a

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Transportation Planning

Compare frequencies
700

1000

600
800
500
600

400

300

400

200
200
100

Std. Dev = .87

Std. Dev = 1.45

Mean = .8

Mean = 2.2

N = 1621.00

0
0.0

SFREQ1

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

N = 1621.00

0
0.0

LFREQ1

Class: Which one is easier to estimate?

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

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Transportation Planning

Traditional Trip Generation

Input: social and economic characteristics
Output: productions/attractions, origins/destinations
by zone
Key concepts: trip generation by purpose maybe
more accurate but some purposes easier to predict
(trips to work)
Other: Goods movement productions/attractions are
handled in a similar way (Freight Forecasting
Manual exists)

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Transportation Planning

Post-MTC Lawsuit Models

Level of service = quality of transportation system
measured in travel time from an origin to a destination
Trip generation also function of level of service
New models for induced demand = new demand for
travel after improvements in level of service
Activity-based models to reflect scheduling of
persons, coordination of activities
Multilevel models to reflect within group coordination

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Transportation Planning

In the Lab - Check

TAZ population and productions

Businesses and attractions
What do you expect the relationship to be?
Does the relationship make sense?

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Transportation Planning

Summary
Collect data using surveys
Derive a model using statistics
Use the model to predict number of trips generated
in each zone
Apply this at each centroid representing a zone
Have all this ready for the next step trip
distribution
If you cannot run a survey use equations from ITE trip
generation manual or other studies check for similarities/verify
results!