Sociology 601: Class 5, September 15, 2009

What we have accomplished with

sampling distributions
Given a population parameter, we know that a
sample statistic will produce a better estimate of the
population parameter when the sample is larger.
(Better means more accurate and normally
distributed).
We know what we are doing at a qualitative level.

Whats next
We will take it to a quantitative level: How good is
a given estimate from a given sample?
We will go over formal language and equations for
using sample statistics to make inferences for
population parameters.
Once we have equations for predicting a population
mean and standard deviation, we will discuss
formal language for defining an interval estimate, a
guess of a range of potential values for the
population parameter, based on the sample. 3

5.1: Estimation: definitions

Point estimate: a single number, calculated from a
set of data, that is the best guess for the parameter.
Point estimator: the equation used to produce the
point estimate. (Common notation: put a hat on
the parameter.)
Interval estimate: a range of numbers around the
point estimate within which the parameter is
believed to fall. Also called a confidence interval.
4

The basics of point estimation

The typical point estimator
of a population mean is a sample
mean:

Yi
Y
n

The typical point estimator of a

population proportion is a sample
proportion:

Yi
f

n
n

Q: is this a point estimator of a mean?

Y15

Point estimators for standard deviations.

Estimated standard deviation of observations in a

population:

= s =

2
(Y

Y)
i

n 1

Typical point estimators for standard errors.

Estimated standard error

of samples drawn from a
population:
Special case: estimated
standard error of a
population proportion:

(1 )
n

Choosing a good estimator

You can technically use any equation you want as a
point estimator, but the most popular ones have
certain desirable properties.
Unbiasedness: The sampling distribution for the estimator
centers around the parameter. (On average, the estimator
gives the correct value for the parameter.)
Efficiency: If at the same sample size one unbiased
estimator has a smaller sampling error than another unbiased
estimator, the first one is more efficient.
Consistency: The value of the estimator gets closer to the
parameter as sample size increases. Consistent estimators
may be biased, but the bias must become smaller as the
sample size increases if the consistency property holds true.
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Examples for point estimates:

Given the following sample of seven observations:
5,2,5,2,4,5,5

What is the estimator of the population mean?

What is the estimate of the population mean?
What is the estimator of the population standard error?
What is the estimate of the population standard error for
this sample?

What is the estimate of the population proportion with a

value of 5 or greater?
What is the estimate of the population standard error for the
proportion with a value 5 or greater?
9

Examples for point estimates:

Given the following sample of seven observations:
5,2,5,2,4,5,5
What is the estimator of the population mean?

Yi
Y =
=
n

What is the estimate of the population mean?

(5+2+5+2+4+5+5) / 7 = 28 / 7 = 4
What is the estimator of the population standard error?

s
Y =
=
n
n

What is the estimate of the population standard error for this sample?
o =sqrt {[(5-4)2+(2-4)2+(5-4)2+(2-4)2+(4-4)2+(5-4)2+(5-4)2]/(7-1)} / sqrt(7)
o = sqrt { [1 + 4 + 1 + 4 + 0 + 1 + 1] / 6 } / sqrt(7)
o = sqrt(2) / sqrt(7)

o = 1.41 / 2.64
10
o = 0.53

Examples for point estimates:

Given the following sample of seven observations:
5,2,5,2,4,5,5
What is the estimate of the population proportion with a
value of 5 or greater?
o =4/7
o = .57

What is the estimate of the population standard error for the

proportion with a value 5 or greater?

= sqrt(.57 * (1-.57)) / sqrt(7)

= sqrt (.57 * .43) / sqrt(7)
= sqrt (.24) / sqrt(7)
= .49 / 2.64
= .187
11

5.2: interval estimates:

Interval estimate (also called a confidence interval):
a range of numbers that we think has a given
probability of containing a parameter.
Confidence coefficient: The probability that the
interval estimate contains the parameter. Typical
confidence coefficients are .95 and .99.
We usually are told the desired confidence
coefficient, then asked to find the interval estimate
appropriate for the confidence coefficient.
12

Example of confidence interval.

95% confidence interval for a sample mean:

95% c.i. = Y 1.96 * se(Y )

95% c.i. = Y 1.96 * Y

example using age from IHDS:
.summarizeage
Variable|ObsMeanStd.Dev.MinMax
+
age|21575427.3466319.348410116
.ciage
Variable|ObsMeanStd.Err.[95%Conf.Interval]
+
age|21575427.34663.041654927.2649927.42827

Q: how is std. err. of age calculated?

Q: assumptions?

13

Equations for interval estimates.

Confidence interval of a mean
and proportion:
where

c.i. Y z Y

c.i. z

Y s /

and where you choose z, based on the p-value

for the confidence interval you want
Assumption: the sample size is large enough that
the sampling distribution is approximately normal
14

Notes on interval estimates:

Usually, we are not given z. Instead we start with a
desired confidence interval (e.g., 95% confidence),
and we select an appropriate z score.
We generally use a 2-tailed distribution in which of
the confidence interval is on each side of the sample
mean.
What does this do to our choice of p-values for the
z-scores?

15

Equations for interval estimates.

Example: find c.i. when Ybar =10.2, s=10.1, N=1055,
interval=95%.
z is derived from the 95% value: what value of z leaves 95% in
the middle and 2.5 % on each end of a distribution?
For p = .975, z = 1.96
The standard error is s/SQRT(n) = 10.1/SQRT(1055) = .31095
Top of the confidence interval is 10.2 + 1.96*.31095 = 10.8095
The bottom of the interval is 10.2 1.96*.31095 = 9.5905
Hence, the confidence interval is 9.59 to 10.81
16

Normality rules for confidence

Confidence intervals assume a normal distribution of
possible samples
Q: when can you assume normality for a sampling
distribution of a continuous interval variable (such as
income?)
A1: when N >= 30
A2: when observations in the population can be
assumed to be normally distributed.

17

5.3: Confidence intervals for population

proportions:
Confidence interval for a population proportion:

(1 )
n

Example, 424 of 1000 respondents in a poll report that they

plan to vote for candidate X. Calculate a 95% c.i. for this
result.
o = .424 +- 1.96 * sqrt { [ .424 * (1-.424)] / 1000 }
o = .424 +- 1.96 * sqrt { [ .424 * .576 ] / 1000 }
o = .424 +- 1.96 * sqrt { .000244}
o = .424 +- 1.96 * .0156
o = .424 +- 0.031
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o = .395 -> .455

Normality rules for confidence intervals for

sample proportions:

Q: when can you assume normality for a sample of a

dichotomous interval variable (yes = 1, no = 0)
A: when n(p(1-p)) >= 10
(For what values of p do you need an extra large n to
ensure a normal sampling distribution?)
What can go wrong when you inappropriately assume a
normal sampling distribution?
19

Putting it all together:

Given the following sample of seven observations:

o 5,2,5,2,4,5,5
What is the 95% confidence interval of the population
mean?

20

What is the best phrasing for an interval

estimate?
a.) The 95% confidence interval for the population
mean is 6.8 to 9.5? Or
b.) There is a 95% probability that the true
population mean is between 6.8 and 9.5? Or
c.) We estimate that 95% of samples from the
underlying population would fall within 1.35 of the
true population mean, and we estimate that the true
population mean is 8.15?
21

Confidence intervals using STATA

Confidence intervals for means and proportions using cii

95 % confidence interval for General Social Survey sexfreq question

as per A&F example 5.1
Command is: cii samplesize mean standarddeviation, level(level)

cii 1055 10.2 10.1, level(95)

Variable |
Obs
Mean
Std. Err.
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------|
1055
10.2
.3109533
9.589842
10.81016

* Variant with higher threshold for confidence

cii 1055 10.2 10.1, level(99)
Variable |
Obs
Mean
Std. Err.
[99% Conf. Interval]
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------|
1055
10.2
.3109533
9.397584
11.00242

* 95% confidence interval for proportion, as per A&F example 5.2

cii 1934 895, level(95)
-- Binomial Exact -Variable |
Obs
Mean
Std. Err.
[95% Conf. Interval]
22
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------|
1934
.4627715
.011338
.4403617
.4852942

5.4: Choosing the best sample size

Cost is directly proportional to sample size, so we

generally want the minimum sample to do the job.
Estimating minimum sample size is commonly
done with population proportions
With population proportions, you do not need to
make separate guesses about the population
mean and standard deviation.
With population proportions, it is easy to identify
a conservative mean, and the bias does not vary
much.
23

Choosing the best sample size for a population

proportion
We already have an equation for the confidence interval:

c.i. z

(1 )
n

When we choose the best sample size, we choose one half

of the confidence interval (the top one) and solve for n

(1 )
nz
2
(c.i.top1/ 2 )
2

Agresti and Finlays term for one half of the confidence

interval is the confidence bound B

24

Sample size example:

Example: Sample size for election poll:
Desired 95% c.i. = + or 3%
Preliminary estimate: = .50
What sample size is needed?

25

Choosing the best sample size for a sample mean

Estimating minimum sample size is less commonly

done with population means
With population means, you need to make
separate guesses about the population mean
and standard deviation.
We generally have a hard time making a good
guess about a population standard deviation
without measuring it.
26

Choosing the best sample size for a population

mean
We already have an equation for the confidence interval:

s
c.i. Y z
n

When we choose the best sample size, we choose one half

of the confidence interval (the top one) and solve for n

nz

(c.i.top1/ 2 )

Again, Agresti and Finlays term for one half of the

confidence interval is the confidence bound B

27

Sample size example:

Example: Sample size for study of educational
attainment among elderly native Americans:
Desired 99% c.i. = + or 1 year
Preliminary estimates: = 12, = 2.5
What sample size is needed?

28