Sie sind auf Seite 1von 9

Debt Relief for Poor

Countries: Rationale and


Expectations
Christina Daseking

Deputy Division Chief


Policy Development and Review
Department, IMF
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and should not be
attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.
1

Slide 1: Main Arguments for Debt


Relief to Poor Countries

Moral argument
Financing argument
Debt overhang/growth argument
Evergreening/efficient lending
argument

Slide 2: The Moral Argument

Poor countries should not devote


scarce resources to pay rich creditors
But...
No debt service means no borrowing
Smaller overall aid envelope
How pessimistic should we be?

Slide 3: Are poor countries doomed


to stay poor?
Per Capita Income in U.S. dollars
8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

Thailand

4,000

3,000

2,000

Ghana
1,000

0
1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Slide 4: The Financing Argument

Debt relief generates additional


predictable resources in support of the
MDGs
But...
Additionality cannot be taken for granted
There may be better ways to provide MDG
financing, as debt relief is:

Backloaded
Allocated based on past lending decisions
Small relative to new development assistance
5

Slide 5: Debt Service and ODA for 28


Post-Decision-Point HIPCs, 1999-2003

Slide 6: The Debt


Overhang/Growth Argument

As a high debt burden weakens incentives


to invest, debt relief will foster growth
But...
Growth effect beyond financing controversial:
Is high debt ratio cause or symptom of low
growth?
HIPC Initiative has already removed large
portion of debt
Other factors are likely to be much more
important (trade deal, policies, institutions)
7

Slide 7: The Evergreening/Efficient


Lending Argument
Debt relief removes roll-over concerns,

Debt relief removes roll-over concerns,


allowing creditors to allocate new
resources more efficiently
But...
Allocation of debt relief resources itself
benefits heavy borrowers
Performance-based lending already possible
Debt relief may create incentive problems of
its own by raising expectations for more
8

Slide 8: Conclusions

All arguments for debt relief have


some appeal and merit
But none is without caveats
Bottom-line: Dont expect too much!
Debt relief generates predictable aid,
but it cannot generate sustainable
growth.
9