Breaking Down

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2016

The Electoral College

The United States is the only country that
elects a politically powerful president via
an electoral college.

A candidate can become the President

without having obtained the highest
number of votes in the popular voting.

The game i.e. the political election process

is given and can't be easily changed.

The candidates develop strategies to

account for the specifics of the game,
which includes targeting swing states.

Where did it all start for Mr. Trump?

Feb
2016

Where did it all start for Mr. Trump?

In a series of electoral contests in the
months Feb-June, 17 Candidates entered
the race to become the Republican Party
nominee

Feb
2016

Donald Trump played the perfect Game of

Chickens openly daring the other
Republican nominees
Republican Party Nominees
Many nominees including Ted Cruz and
John Kasich refused to exchange taunts,
and resulted in withdrawal of their
nominations.

The others like Marco Rubio lost badly by

undermining his image as an upright
moderate.

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Lets look at a short video

How the Game Unfolded?

Dares Opponent

Does Not Dare

Opponent

Does Not
Dare
/Retaliate

Dares /
Retaliates

Republican
Nomination

The game has two Nash Equilibria- (Dares,

Does Not Dare) and (Does Not Dare, Dare)

-2,-2

-1,1

1,-1

0,0

Given that both players want to win,

Donald Trump acquired a reputation of
playing tough by intimidating all rivals.

With the fear that their reputation might

suffer, his rivals within the Republican
Party withdrew their nominations

Mr. Trump soon caught the media frenzy

June
2016

Trumps campaign and debates received tremendous visibility from media houses
Considered to be an important weapon in his eventual victory

Hotellings Game explains the Media Phenomenon

Media
Channels

Political
Spectrum

Trump rallies had controversial statements

implying more eyeballs and high ratings

Herd mentality of Channels, not to loose on

the viewers as well; no Channel wanted to
be left out like a hot dog stand away from
the center.
More the media coverage more the
people/voters are influenced.

The battle to become the next US President fierced up

Sept
2016

Trumps Best Strategy- Unpredictability

Unpredictability is the best rational strategy in some cases

Whether you will
use Nuclear
Weapons to stop
terrorists?

Will Use

Will Not Use

Unpredictability is the best rational
strategy here where both Trump and
Hillary have clashing interests, and both
their best choices depends on what
strategy the other chooses.

Will
Use

275,240

255,260

Will
Not
Use

250,265

260,255

By behaving randomly, Trump never

allowed Hillary to predict his next move.

It is much likely that his unpredictable

behaviour stems from his ignorance on
policy issues.

Trump ultimately swayed the voters in his favor

Nov
2016

Median Voter Theorem testifies the result

Policy advocated by Trump involved :
Deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants
A significant increase in military spending
Same-Sex marriage should be opposed
U.S. tax corporate profits should be stashed overseas
Replace Obama Care
Privatize Prison
The above policies were opposed by Hillary Clinton.

The median voter resonated with Trump philosophies,

helping him to win

Against Inclusiveness (Trump)

Pro Inclusiveness(Clinton)

How Hillary Clinton could have pulled out a victory?

01

Exploit

Clinton should have exploited Trumps

propensity to retaliate against anyone.
Her Vice-Presidential candidate should
have been a brawler, who would spend the
last six months confronting Trump and
dissuading him from speaking on important
issues.

Dissuade
Probe

03

Clinton should have probed more into

Trumps stance on important issues like the
use of Nuclear weapons, to dissuade Trump
from being unpredictable.

References

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-clinton-swing-state-voters-election-day-1.3838496
http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2016/03/29/why-does-donald-trump-get-so-much-media-coveragehttp://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2016/05/17/more-donald-trump-and-game-theory-tit-for-tat-and-unrel
eased-tax-returns/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_candidates,_2016
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote/
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/donald-trumps-rambling-90-second-speech-stuns-englishspeaking-world_uk_57ab37d7e4b08ab70dc0f646
http://www.orfonline.org/expert-speaks/us-presidential-election-2016/
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/16/politics/trump-transition-team-of-bitter-rivals/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization
http://www.theweek.co.uk/us-election-2016/74067/donald-trumps-transition-in-disarray