A Presentation by Gerald Graham, Ph. D.

to the University of Victoria Commerce

Students Society,
18 March, 2015

Tanker A on the Rocks!

Outline
Whats On the Line if an Oil Spill Occurs
The Interconnectedness of It All
Focus on Enbridges Northern Gateway Project

and Kinder Morgans Trans Mountain Expansion

Project
The Notion of Risk
Conclusions

A Presentation by Dr. Gerald Graham January

27, 2010

www.findingcoral.c
om

Most of the
shipping
traffic off of
the BC Coast
follows the
Great Circle
Route to and
from Asia

Projects in the Pipeline:

Numbers of Transits Per Annum

Port

Bbls/d or #s of
Transits

Completion Date

Stewart
Bulk cargo terminal

From 30 vessels now to

100

Prince Rupert
Potash export
terminal
Container terminal
Phase 2

Late 2014

Kitimat
Enbridge Gateway oil

100 transits

2015

Enbridge condensate

120

2015

Kinder Morgan TMX-2

14 per month ( LOS )

Kitimat LNG

70-90

2014

A typical Very
Large Crude
Carrier (VLCC)

Average Number of Voyages & Size of Tankers Enbridge

Plans to Use Per Year
VLCC

Suezmax
Condensate

Aframax

# of Voyages

50

120

50

Length of
Vessel

340m

274m

240m

DWT Range

200,000300,000

120,000200,000

80,000-120,000

Avge cargo
capacity (t)

300,000

160,000

100,000

Avge cargo
capacity
(bbls)

2 million

1 million

0.75 million

The Oil Spill Threat

Spill Avoidance
Spill Response Techniques
Spill Risk
Cumulative effects

A Real Northern Adventure!

Number of Spills > 700

tonnes

Number of medium sized (7-700 t) & large (>700 t)

spills per decade from 1970-2008

Major Oil Spills Since 1967 (ITOPF )

Position

Shipname

Year

Location

Spill Size
( tonnes )

Atlantic Empress

1979

Off Tobago

287,000

ABT Summer

1991

Off Angola

260,000

Castillo de Belver

1983

Off South
Africa

252,000

Amoco Cadiz

1978

Brittany,
France

223,000

Haven

1991

Genoa, Italy

144,000

Odyssey

1988

NS, Canada

132,000

Torrey Canyon

1967

Scilly Isles, UK

119,000

Sea Star

1972

Gulf of
OmanOman

115,000

Irenes Serenade

1980

Greece

100,000

10

Urquiolo

1976

La Coruna,
Spain

100,000

11

Hawaiian Patriot

1977

Hawaii, USA

95,000

35

Exxon Valdez

1989

Alaska, USA

37,000

January 17, 2010 Exxon Kodiak Incident,

Prince William Sound, Alaska

Recent Bligh Reef Tug

Incident in Prince William
Sound, Alaska

Selected Marine Incidents in BC Waters 2003-2010

Vessel Name,
Year of
Incident

Incident Type

Incident
Location

Fuel Type
Spilled

Quantities
Involved

MV Hebei Spirit
2009

Bulk Carrier Ran

Aground

Gulf Islands

N/A

N/A

MV Petersfield
2009

Cargo Vessel
Ran Aground

Douglas
Channel

N/A

N/A

Sea Voyager
2009

Tug Ran
Aground

Bella Bella

Diesel?

Ted Leroy
Barge, 2007

Barge Tipped

Robson Bight,
Johnstone Strait

Diesel,
gasoline, motor
oil

10,000 l. diesel,
1400 hydraulic
oil

Trans Mountain
Pipeline 2007

Pipeline Rupture

Burrard Inlet

Crude oil

1474 barrels

Westward
Annette 2006

Cargo Ship

Howe Sound
( Squamish )

Bunker C

29,000 l. (192
barrels); est.
2/3 recovered

Queen of the
North, 2006

BC Ferry Sinking

Wright Sound

Diesel, lube oil

MV Andre 2006

Bulk Carrier
Bunkering Spill

Vancouver
Harbour

Bunker C

63 barrels

MV Zois 2003

Container Ship

Trail Island

N/A

N/A

Oil Spill Risk Defined

Risk is defined as the

probability of a spill
occurring X by the
seriousness of the
consequences that
result from it

Thus, a spill that

might occur once in

a lifetime could still
be considered high
risk if the
consequences were
catastrophic

Differing Risk Tolerance

Thresholds

Two Extremes vis a vis the

Prospect of Tankers in the
QCB
The chance of a

tanker spill
happening is nil; this
statement is
attributed to
President of the
Pacific Pilotage
Authority

A tanker spill is

inevitable ; this
statement is widely
made by ENGOs
Are either of these
statements accurate,
or are they both
wrong?

Too Much Risk of a Tanker

Spill?
Is the prospect of 7

tanker spills > 1000

barrels over the 30 year
lifespan of the Enbridge
Northern Gateway
project too much?
( Statistical Source: Van

Hinte et al, 2007 )

Questionable prediction
If accurate, would

anyone, including the

proponent, find that risk
level acceptable?

Preliminary Risk Benefit Analysis of Enbridge

Northern Gateway Project
From a societal perspective, are 4000 short-term

construction jobs and 200 long-term terminal jobs

worth it if the environmental effects of a major oil
spill could be catastrophic and irreversible?
Is the main beneficiary of the project really
assuming the risk for marine spills, or is this being
fobbed off on the shipper?
Is there any way this project could become
palatable to some stakeholders?
Highly

doubtful in the case of Coastal First Nations and

Environmental Non-governmental Organisations
( ENGOs )

Conclusions
So long as there is oil in ships, spills cannot be entirely ruled

out
In general, increased shipping activity means increased risk
Multiple projects bring prospect of cumulative risk
Commercial shipping activity in the QCB is on the rise
Quantifying the chances of a major spill in the QCB is an
inexact science
To borrow a saying from the mutual funds industry: Past

performance is no guarantee of future results.

There is always the chance, however small, of a catastrophic

spill occurring, with potentially irreversible consequences

Largely because of the climate, + the semi-enclosed and deeplyindented nature of the coastline

Decide for yourselves whether the threat level is acceptable

Living Oceans Society Oil Sp

ill Models

Another Close Call!

Video of Douglas Channel Co

astline

Definition of Risk and Application to Decision as to

Whether or Not to Get On an Airplane
Risk can be defined as:

The probability of an
event occurring multiplied
by the consequences if
that event does occur
Fly/No Fly example:
Low probability of a crash

occurring, but potentially

catastrophic
consequences if it were to
Acceptable level of risk?
Do you get on that plane?

Development Proposals in
the Pipeline
Individual Projects
Their Cumulative Impacts, although Many of

Them May Never See the Light of Day!

Coming Soon to a Port Near

You!

The Interconnectedness
of
It All
SCC/BC Brochure

Twenty-One Marine Species at

Risk
Source: Hall, 2004

Processes following a
spill
Source: www.ipieca.org

North American Pipeline Expansion

Projects

Level of Response
0-10,000 Tonnes > Regional Response, i.e.

Marine Spill Response Corporation, aka

Burrard Clean Operations (BCO)
10,000- 25,000 Tonnes > National Response
25,000 Tonnes + > International Response