Predicting Performance

Predicting Performance
DYNAMIC MODEL
Well/Facilities
Model

Upscaled
Reservoir
Model

Near Wellbore
Performance Models

Preliminary
Dynamic
Model

Projected
Reservoir
Performance

Field
Economic
Model

Calibrated
Dynamic
Model
Optimized
Reservoir
Development
Plan

Objectives of Future Performance

Predictions
Predict reservoir behavior
Estimate performance in new reservoirs
Optimize operating conditions
Maximize economic gain

Limitations of Future Performance

Predictions
The major limitation of future performance
predictions is the accuracy of the
reservoir model.
A good history match does not guarantee
an
accurate
and
representative
performance prediction.

Limitations of Future Performance

Predictions
This might occur if future performance
predictions represent operating scenarios that
are dramatically different from the historical
operation of the field. Examples include
Converting a depletion drive reservoir to
waterflooding, pressure maintenance or
enhanced recovery
Converting an old, depleted reservoir to gas
storage

Types of Future Performance

Predictions
Common uses for future performance
predictions
Depletion studies
Secondary or enhanced recovery studies
Timing of facilities installation
Timing of well workovers
Timing of well conversions
Infill drilling studies

Data Requirements for Predicting

Future Performance
Number and timing of new wells
New well data
Well, production facility
operating constraints

and

Economic limits
Workover plan for existing wells
Completion plan for new wells

field

Number and Timing of New Wells Based On

Availability of drilling rigs
Time required to drill a well
Budget considerations
In some cases, new well locations can be
selected automatically by simulator

New Well Data

Well location in the simulation grid
Type of well (producer or injector)
Well constant, denoted WC, (related to PI
of well)

New Well Data

Skin factor must also be considered. Incorrect
assumptions about skin factors for new wells could
lead to unrealistic forecasts.
Skin factor for new wells can be estimated using
(1) knowledge of skin factors resulting from drilling
and completion practices in the field of interest, or
(2) measured skin factors in existing wells (possibly
before and after cleanup or stimulation treatments).
Another possibility is to perform a sensitivity analysis
using a range of expected skin factors.

Well (Existing and New) and

Facilities Constraint Data
Minimum and maximum operating pressures at
Compression facilities
Separators
Liquid processing facilities
Maximum fluid cuts (GOR, WOR) and liquid
rates, which may limit
Lifting facilities at wells
Gathering and processing facilities
All constraints can apply to wells, production
facilities and/or the entire field operation.

Economic Limits
Economic
limits
determine
the
operating life of a project or well in a
future performance prediction.
Economic limits are often minimum
production rates for oil and gas, for
individual wells or the entire field.
Producing gas-oil ratios and water-oil
ratios can also be used.

Economic Limits
Data requirements for determining economic limits
Estimate of future pricing for oil and gas
Fixed operating costs
Monthly operating costs for wells
Lifting costs
Routine maintenance costs
Workover/repair costs for wells
Taxes and regulatory factors
Operating cost and oil and gas price escalations

Economic Limits
Alternative approach - allow an economics
model to determine when a project is
uneconomic.
Use overall production stream for entire
project.
Input fixed and per well operating cost
into economics model.
Limit use of economic limits in reservoir
simulation.

Workover/Completion Plan For Wells

Develop a plan for workovers of existing
wells
Skin damage removal
Hydraulic fracturing
Mechanical repairs
Develop a plan for completion of new wells
Stimulation
Mechanical configuration

Transitioning From History

to Predictions
Transitioning from history matching to
performance predictions means wells are no
longer controlled by known operating
conditions, but rather by an estimated future
operating scenario.
Unless there is an immediate change in the
operating conditions of a field after history
matching, the well and field production rates
and fluid cuts (overall production performance)
should be similar to recent past history.

Smooth Transitions From History

to Predictions
The quality or smoothness of the transition is
dependent on the quality of the history match.
If a smooth transition is not seen, then it might
be necessary to further refine the history
match.
Also a function of how future operating
conditions are specified.

 Methods for a smooth transition from history

matching to future performance:
If wells were rate constrained at the end of
history, then begin forecasting using the
same rate constraints on wells.
If the wells were producing at capacity
(pressure constrained) at the end of
history, then the wells should be pressure
constrained at the start of performance
predictions.
As an alternative, use the average well rate
or pressure from the last several days,
weeks or months for future predictions.

Summary of Production Constraints For

Forecast Cases
Parameter

Value

Minimum well flowing bottomhole

pressure (FBHP)

300 psia

Minimum well oil rate

50 STB/D

Maximum completion water-oil ratio

(WOR)

6 STB/STB

Minimum field oil production rate

500 STB/D

Well Locations for Case Fore2a-New Wells

and Recompletions
Block VI

Block V

6
8
9

10

OW
C

OW
C
00
129

Legend
existing production 44
wells
45

proposed production wells

46
wells with proposed re-completions

OW

proposed water injection wells

47

true fault traces

48
fault traces in simulation
model

Field Production Rates for Base (Fore1b) and New

Wells and Recompletion (Fore2a) Forecast Cases
60

50

Qo, Qw (MSTB/D)

40

30

150

20

100

10

50

0
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Time, years

2002

2004

2006

2008

0
2010

Qg (MMCF/D)

Obs Qo
Obs Qw
Obs Qg
300
hist33k:Field OIL Production Rate
hist33k:Field WAT Production Rate
hist33k:Field GAS Production Rate
fore2a:Field OIL Production Rate
fore2a:Field
250WAT Production Rate
fore2a:Field GAS Production Rate
fore1b:Field OIL Production Rate
fore1b:Field WAT Production Rate
fore1b:Field GAS Production Rate
200

FORE Field Prod Rates

New Wells and Recompletions Increase Recoveries

Cum Oil, Cum Water (MMSTB)

300
250
200

Obs Cum Oil

Obs Cum Water
Obs Cum Gas
Hist33k:Field Oil Cum
Hist33k:Field Water
Hist33k:Field Gas
Fore2a:Field Oil Cum
Fore2a:Field Water
Fore2a:Field Gas
Fore1b:Field Oil Cum
Fore1b:Field Water
Fore1b:Field Gas Cum

150
100
50
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Time, years

New Wells and Recompletions Lower

Reservoir Pressure
6000

Obs C3C4 MidPerf SI

Obs C4 MidPerf SI
Obs C5 MidPerf SI
Obs C3C4 NoPerf Datum SI
Obs C4 NoPerf Datum SI
Obs C5 NoPerf Datum SI
hist33k: Field Average Pressure
fora2a: Field Average Presssure
fore1b: Field Average Pressure

Pressure, psia

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990

1995

2000
Time, years

2005

2010

Water Saturation Maps (0.2 - 1.0 Scale) for

Case Hist33k, Fore1b and Fore2a for Layer 1

Movable Oil Maps for Cases HIST33k,

FORE1b and FORE2a for Layer 1

Summary of Forecast Simulation Cases

Summary of Forecast Simulation Cases
Case
Name

Ultimate
Ultimate
Ultimate
Ultimate
Oil
Water
Gas
Oil
Production Production Production Recovery
(% of OOIP)
(MMSTB) (MMSTB)
(Bscf)

Base (Fore1b)

216

129

179

34.3

New Wells and

Recompletions (Fore2a)

250

167

227

39.7

Conclusions
There are several fault blocks in the
VLE-196 field with significant
volumes of bypassed oil.
Oil recovery can be increased by 34
million STB (5.4% of the OOIP) by
recompleting 5 existing wells and
drilling 8 new wells

Recommendations
Develop and calibrate an expanded
model of the VLE-196 C-4/C-5
reservoirs, to better model
communication with other reservoirs.
This should include the B/C-2/C-3
reservoirs, areas across the VLE-400
fault to the west and block VI to the
north.

Integrated Reservoir Study

DYNAMIC MODEL
Well/Facilities
Model

Upscaled
Reservoir
Model

Near Wellbore
Performance Models

Preliminary
Dynamic
Model

Projected
Reservoir
Performance

Field
Economic
Model

Calibrated
Dynamic
Model
Optimized
Reservoir
Development
Plan