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What is
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
A thin blanket of
air that surrounds
the Earth
Interactions
Energy from
the Sun
Atmosphere
Biosphere
Land
Oceans
Ice sheets
Interactions
Climate Change
Issues
Trends &
Scenarios
Global
warming
refers to the
increase in the
earths
mean
temperature
due to the socalled enhanced
greenhouse
effect.
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Effect
CO2
Carbon dioxide
CH4
N2O
Atmosphere
Methane
Nitrous oxide
water vapor
These and other gases keep the Earths surface about 60F (33 C)
warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse
or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrous oxides
Nitrous Oxide
Natural sources
Soils (biological processes)
Natural sources
Ocean
Carbon dioxide
Hydroflourocarbons
Methane
Natural sources
Natural sources
Wetlands
Termites
Methane
none
Hydrofluorocarbons
Ocean
Nitrous Oxide -
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6
The planet is now close to 0.8 degrees Celsius warmer than it was a century ago
Projected (2100)
Current (2010)
Industrial Revolution (1733)
What is enhanced
greenhouse effect
IPCC Conclusions
Warming of the
climate system
Increasing in
global average
air and ocean
temperatures
Rising global
average sea level
Reductions of
snow and ice
Warmest 12 years on
record
effect of global
warming
What is
Climate
Change?
CLIMATE CHANGE
Change in climate patterns
such as rainfall, wind patterns
Climate Change
UNFCCC
Climate
change is unequivocal
(undisputable/undeniable)
Climate Change
Climate Change is the change in climate
over a time period that ranges from
decades to centuries. The term refers to
both natural and humaninduced changes.
The term climate variability refers to
shorter term (years to decades) fluctuations
in climate such as those caused by El
Nio/Southern Oscillation.
1A.35
Celsius
A 1 DEGREE
INCREASE
TEMPERATURE
THE TROPICS
AGRICULTURAL
YIELD
DECLINE
BY AS MUCH
AS 10%
Extreme temperatures can directly cause the loss of life (ex: 35,000
people died during heat wave in Europe, Aug03.)
Warmer weather provides an ideal breeding environment for
mosquitoes.
Tropical Diseases?
Global Warming
increases drought which
lessens the supply of
clean drinking water.
Cholera
It increases
temperature providing
an ideal breeding
environment for
mosquitoes.
Dengue fever
Malaria
Yellow fever
in frequency of heavy
rainfall events and typhoons
frequent
occurrence of more
intense drought
of Natural
Ecosystems
32% of the
AGRICULTUR
country's total land
PHILIPPINES
is
is
area HIGHLY
is agriculturalE
to
lands.VULNERABLE
The share of agriculture
in
total
employment
is
AGRICULTURA
an
country
CLIMATE
33%.CHANGE
L
About
RAPID
POPULATIO
N GROWTH
RISING
INCOM
E
HIGH
DEMAND
FOR FOOD
countrystat.bas.gov.ph
What are
potential
impacts on
water resources?
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON WR
The Water Resources Sector is seen to be
very vulnerable to climate change in terms of
availability and quality
All regions of the world show an
overall net negative impact
of climate change on water resources and
freshwater ecosystems
Impacts to WR availability
Rainy Season- too intense but short duration rains, & more frequent in some areas
Excessive
Runoff
Silted Rivers
Severe Erosion
Impacts to WR availability
Dry Season- less rainfall, frequent occurrence of drought periods in some areas
Reduced Stream
flow
Reduction in
Yield
Total Crop Loss
Declining
Groundwater Level
Inundation
of low-lying
areas
Reduction in
production area
Sea
water
intrusion
Freshwater
less available
Reduced
water
supply for
irrigation
Increasing
GHGs
Global
Warming
Temperature
Rise
Extreme
Climate
Aberrations
Frequent &
Stronger
typhoons
Too
much
Water
Flooding
Damaged
Agri- infra
Soil Erosion
Pest &
diseases
More
Intense
Droughts
Too
little
Water
High evap
rate; Drier
soils
Increased crop
water demand
Water shortage
Reduced surface
flow & GW Level
decline
Reduction in
irrigated area
Drying of
wetlands
Rainfall
variability
Changing
rainfall
pattern
Rainfall availability
less predictable
Disruption in
cropping
system
Natural
ecosystems
change
HOW IS CLIMATE
CHANGE
MANIFESTED IN
THE PHILIPPINES
Observed Changes
ANNUAL MEAN
TEMPERATURE
(60
Trend in the
frequency of days
with maximum
temperature above
the 1961-1990 mean
99th percentile
(Hot
Trend in the
frequency with
minimum
temperature above
the 1961-1990
mean 99th
percentile (Warm
nights)
Trend in the
frequency with
maximum
temperature below
the 1961-1990
mean 1st percentile
Cool Days
Trend in the
frequency with
minimum
temperature below
the 1961-1990 mean
1st percentile
Cold nights
CLIMATE
PROJECTION
FOR THE
PHILIPPINES
Observed mean temperature has increased by 0.64 C during the last 60 years (1951-2010). Projected increase of 1 to 2.0
C under a medium emission scenario is expected by 2020 & 2050 and 0.7 to 1.7 C increase under a high emission
scenario. The figure shows that it is only after 2050 that the temperature increase showing the climate response to high or
medium range scenarios will start to diverge. This is due to the fact that Ghg gases already in the atmosphere have long
lifetimes and will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize.
Frequency of
Extreme
Temperature
hot temperatures
(indicated by the
number of days with
maximum
temperature
exceeding 35 C) will
continue to become
more frequent.
SEASON
Key Findings
Medium-range
Emission Scenario
2020
2050
Dec-Jan-Feb
(DJF)
0.8 to
1.0
1.6 to
2.2
Mar-Apr-May
(MAM)
0.9 to
1.3
2.0 to
2.5
Jun-Jul-Aug
(JJA)
0.8 to
1.3
1.6 to
2.6
Sep-Oct-Nov
(SON)
0.8 to
1.1
1.5 to
2.2
Warm months
becoming hotter
Frequency of
Extreme Rainfall
Heavy daily
rainfall
(exceeding
300mm) events
will continue to
increase in
number in
Luzon, Visayas
& eastern
sections of the
country.
Dry seasons
becoming drier.
Wet seasons
becoming wetter.
Medium-range Emission
Scenario
2020
2050
Dec-Jan-Feb
(DJF)
-0.4 to 54.3
%
-0.1 to25.1-%
Mar-Apr-May
(MAM)
-0.2 to
-33.3%
-1.4 to
-39.8%
-0.4 to
43.1%
-0.7 to
72.5%
-0.4 to
30.0%
-0.5 to
39.0%
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA)
Sep-Oct-Nov
(SON)
Manila-Mean
Temperature
Melting of
glaciers and ice
sheets
18 cm 59 cm
Probability of occurrence
Current
More Hot
Less
Cold
Cold
New
Average
More
Extrem
e
Hot
[Source: Adapted from IPCC (2007)]
Mitigation or
Adaptation
measures?
Increase
Limit
Mitigation
Temperature
increase
<20C
Mitigation
Adaptation
Behavior
and
practice
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