What is Theory?

Theory is NOT:

Correlation
Description
Interpretation
Absence of data
Ideology

Theory IS:

A general, abstract explanation

Theories simplify reality

The world is complex

Theories tell us what to pay
attention to

Theories have empirical

implications

Assume the existence of a real world

Aim to increase understanding, not to

accomplish political, moral, or social
ends

Have empirical implications

If X, then Y, where X and Y are

observables

Social theories

Explain social rather than

individual outcomes

We are interested in explaining the

behavior of social systems rather
than of individuals

Social theories

Are composed of

Causal relations
Causal mechanisms

Causal Relations

The outcome

The thing you are trying to explain

Also called

Dependent variable
Effect

Causal Relations, contd

The cause

A factor such that change in it is

associated with change in the
outcome
Also called

Independent variable

Causal Relations, contd

So, X causes Y if by modifying X,

one can affect Y

An explanation includes an assertion

of such a causal relation

Causal Mechanisms

The link between the cause and

the outcome

In other words, the process through

which the cause leads to the outcome

We will say more about this later

How do we know which

theory is best?

Empirical evidence

Theories produce empirical

predictions about how change in a
causal variable will affect an outcome
variable
These predictions are called
hypotheses

Example: Durkheims theory

of suicide

The level of individualism in a group

affects the rate of suicide in the group
Individualism a cause

The degree to which individual activities are

controlled by individuals themselves rather
than by others

Suicide rate an outcome

Some countries/groups have a low rate;

others a relatively high one

Empirical implications

If Protestants are more individualistic

than Catholics

Then Protestants in France will have

higher suicide rates than Catholics in
France

If unmarried men are more

individualistic than married men

Then unmarried men will have a higher

rate of suicide than married men

Empirical implications,
contd

To determine whether the

predictions are supported by the
data, we must pay attention to
three things:

Correlation
Causal Order
Spuriousness

Correlation

A change in X is associated with a

change in outcome Y

Causal order

The cause must occur before the

effect

It is possible to change the value of the

dependent variable by changing the
causal variable
In other words, if you change X, Y will
change
Cause
(x)

Outcome
(Y)

Non-spuriousness

To infer causality, all possible

spurious causes of Y (the
dependent variable) must be ruled
out

That is, the researcher must

determine that a third variable is not
responsible for the observed relation
between X and Y

Example: The Protestant

Ethic

Max Weber noted that the initial

geographic distribution of European
industrial capitalism seemed correlated
with the % of Protestants in a country

Protestantism industrial capitalism

Possible spurious causes

Perhaps countries with large coal reserves

tended to be Protestant
If coal reserves industrial capitalism, then
Protestantism is a spurious relation

Example The Protestant

Ethic

Protestantis
m

Capitalism

Coal
Reserves

Assessing theories

If the theoretical predictions are

consistent with what we observe,
then we have more confidence in
the theory

Caveats

Very few classical theories live up

to these expectations

They do not always explicitly

articulate causal relations and causal
mechanisms

Not many contemporary ones do,

either

Theories are imperfect

Theories simplify reality

Theories must omit much, must

overemphasize much

Hence, all theories are imperfect

How to choose between rival

theories?

Ultimate criterion: empirical

adequacy

The best theory is the one that is

most consistent with observable
empirical phenomena