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distribution

By: Letekirstos(MSc)

School of Public Health

College of Health Sciences

Mekelle University

Learning Objectives

At the end of this session, the student will be able

to:

Understand the concepts and characteristics of

probabilities and probability distributions

Compute probabilities of events and conditional

probabilities

Differentiate between the binomial and normal

distributions

Understand and apply the concepts the standard

normal distribution to solve heath problems

Probability

Chance of observing a particular outcome

Is the mathematical framework for describing uncertainty.

Is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific

event will occur.

Probability reflects the long-run relative frequency of the

outcome.

foundation for statistical inference.

School of Public Health

12/13/16

3

Medicine is not exact science, physicians

seldom predict an outcome with absolute

certainty.

E.g. Formulate a diagnosis

Although no test result is absolutely accurate, it

does affect the probability of the presence or

absence of a disease. Sensitivity and specificity

Understanding of probability is fundamental for

quantifying the uncertainty that is inherent in

decision-making process.

Allows us to draw conclusions about a

population based on the information obtained

from

a ofsample.

School

Public Health

Basic properties of

probability

Probability is always about future

The probability of an event is non-negative (P(E

(

i

) 0, i= 1,2,3,n).

The result is always b/n zero and one

The sum of the probabilities that an

event will occur and that it will not

occur is equal to 1; hence, P(A) = 1

P(A)

A random experiment is a procedure whose

outcome in a particular performance or trial

cannot be predetermined

Equally likely outcomes

Are the outcomes that have the same chance of

occurring.

Mutually exclusive

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if

they cannot occur simultaneously such that

A B =.

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Definitions

The universal Set or Sample space(S):

The set all possible outcomes.

The empty set (): a set contains no

elements.

The event (E) : is a set of outcomes in S

which has a certain characteristic. Events are

represented by uppercase letters such as A,

B, and C

School of Public Health

1. Objective Probability--Classical and Relative

Classical Probability :

likely ways, and if m of these possess a trait, E, the

probability of the occurrence of event E is equal to m/ N .

m

P( E )

For Example: in the rolling of N

the die , each of the six

sides is equally likely to be observed . So, the probability

that a 4 will be observed is equal to 1/6.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Each is equally likely i.e. P(1)= 1/6, P(2)= 1/6. P(6)=

1/6

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Cont

Another equally likely setting is

flipping of fair coin

Fig 1.1

all possible outcomes {H, T}.

Pr(H) = 0.5

Pr(T) = 0.5

School of Public Health

If some posses is repeated a large number of times,

n, and if some resulting event E occurs m times , the

relative frequency of occurrence of E , m/n will be

approximately equal to probability of E .

P(E) = m/n

If you toss a coin 100 times and head comes up 40

time.

P(H) = 40/100 = 0.4.

If we toss a coin 10,000 times and the head comes

up 5562.

P(H) = 0.5562.

Therefore, the longer the series and the longer sample size, the

closer the estimate to the true value.

School of Public Health

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these, 200,000 were LBW infants.

The probability that a newborn is LBW is estimated by

Pr (LBW) = 200,000/2,500,000 = 0.08

2. Subjective Probability

Probability measures the confidence that a particular

individual has in the truth of a particular proposition.

For Example :

the probability that a cure for cancer will be discovered

within the next 10 years.

If someone says that am 95% certain that a cure for

AIDS will be discovered within 5 years.

Pr(discovery of cure for AIDS within 5 years) = 95% = 0.95

Rules of Probability

1-Addition Rule

P(A U B)= P(A) + P(B) P (AB )

2- If A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) ,then

P (AB ) = 0

Then , addition rule is

P(A U B)= P(A) + P(B) .

3- Complementary Rule

P(A' )= 1 P(A)

where, A' = complement event

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Rules

Example

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Rules

questions:

1-The probability that this person will be 18-years old or

younger?

2-The probability that this person has family history of mood

orders Unipolar(C)?

3-The probability that this person has no family history of

mood orders unipolar

C ( )?

4-The probability that this person is 18-years old or younger

or has family history of mood orders Negative (A)?

5-The probability that this person is more than18-years old

and has family history of mood orders Unipolar and

Bipolar(D)?

School of Public Health

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Solution:

1. P(E)=141/318

2. P(C)=85/318

3. P(C )= 1-P(C)=1-85/318

4. P(E U A)=P(E)+P(A)-P(E n A)

= (141/318) + (63/318) 28/318

5. P(L n D) = 60/318

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

Conditional Probability

When probabilities are calculated with a subset of

the total group as the denominator, the result is a

conditional probability.

P(A\B) is the probability of A assuming that B has

happened and P(B/A) is the probability of B assuming

that A has happened.

P(A\B)=

, P(B) 0

P(B\A)=

, P(A) 0

Conditional Probability

Example :

From previous example , answer

suppose we pick a person at random and

find he is 18 years or younger (E),what is

the probability that this person will be one

who has no family history of mood

disorders (A)?

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Conditional Probability..

Solution:

P(A\E)= P(AnE)/P(E)

P(AnE)=28/318,

P(E)=141/318

P(A\E)=28/318/141/318=

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Exercise

suppose we pick a person at random

and find he has family history of

mood (D) what is the probability that

this person will be 18 years or

younger (E)?

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Joint Probability

Sometimes we want to find the

probability that a subject picked at

random from a group of subjects

possesses two characteristics at the

same time.

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Example:

what is the prob. that a person

picked at random from the 318

subjects will be early (E) and will be a

person who has no family history of

mood disorders (A)?

Solution:

P(E A)=28/318=.0881

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

Multiplicative Rule:

A probability may be computed from

other probabilities.

For example, a joint probability may be

computed as the product of an

appropriate marginal probability and an

appropriate conditional probability.

This relationship is known as the

multiplication rule of probability.

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

Cont..

P(AB)= P(A\B)P(B)

P(AB)= P(B\A)P(A)

Where,

P(A): marginal probability of A.

P(B): marginal probability of B.

P(B\A):The conditional

probability.

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Addition Rule

Given two events A and B, the prob.

That event A, or event B, or both

occurs is equal to the prob. That event

A occurs, plus the prob. That event B

occurs, minus the prob. that the

events occur simultaneous

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A

B)

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

Exercise:

If we selected a person randomly

from the 318 subjects. What is the

prob. that this person will be an early

age of onset subject (E) or will have

no family history of mood disorders

(A) or both?

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Independent Events:

If A has no effect on B, we said that

A,B are independent events.

Then,

1- P(AB)= P(B)P(A)

2- P(A\B)=P(A)

3- P(B\A)=P(B)

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Example

In a certain high school class consisting of 60 girls

and 40 boys, it is observed that 24 girls and 16 boys

wear eye glasses . If a student is picked at random

from this class ,

the probability that the student wears eyeglasses ,

P(E), is 40/100 or 0.4 .

random wears eye glasses given that the student is

a boy?

b) What is the probability of the joint occurrence of the

events of wearing eye glasses and being a boy?

School of Public Health

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Solution:

a) using the formula:

p ( E B) 16 /100

p( E / B)

0.4

p( B)

40 /100

b) E and B are independent events:

p ( E B ) P ( B ).P ( E / B ) p ( B ) p ( E )

40

40

( )*( )

100 100

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

Complementary Events:

Example :

Suppose that of 1200 admission to a

general hospital during a certain period

of time,750 are private admissions. If we

designate these as a set A, then compute

P(A) , P().

School of Public Health

Discrete Random Variables

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Definition:

The probability distribution of a discrete

random variable is a table, graph, formula,

or other device used to specify all possible

values of a discrete random variable along

with their respective probabilities.

The Cumulative Probability

Distribution of X, F(x):

It shows the probability that the variable X is

less than or equal to a certain value, P(X x).

School of Public Health

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Example

Cont.

Number of frequency

Programs

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

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Total

62

47

39

39

58

37

4

11

297

P(X=x)

0.2088

0.1582

0.1313

0.1313

0.1953

0.1246

0.0135

0.0370

1.0000

=F(x)

P(X x)

0.2088

0.3670

0.4983

0.6296

0.8249

0.9495

0.9630

1.0000

Properties of probability

distribution of discrete random

variable.

0 P (X x ) 1

1. P (X x ) 1

2.

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A sequence of Bernoulli trials forms a Bernoulli

process under the following conditions

exclusive, outcomes. One of the possible

outcomes is denoted (arbitrarily) as a success, and

the other is denoted a failure.

2- The probability of a success, denoted by p,

remains constant from trial to trial. The probability

of a failure, 1-p, is denoted by q.

3- The trials are independent, that is the outcome of

any particular trial is not affected by the outcome

of any other trial

School of Public Health

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random variable X, the number of

successes in n independent trials is:

n

f (x ) P (X x ) p X q n X

, x 0,1, 2,...., n

x

the number of

Where n

is

combinations

of n distinct objects taken x

x

of them at a time.

n

n!

x !( n x )!

x

x ! x (x 1)(x 2)....(1)

Note: 0! =1

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

distribution

1. f ( x ) 0

2.

(x ) 1

distribution are n and p

4.

E ( X ) np

5.

var(X ) np (1 p )

2

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Example-1

If we examine all birth records from the

Ayder University Hospital for Health

statistics for year 2007, we find that 85.8

percent of the pregnancies had delivery in

week 37 or later (full- term birth).

If we randomly selected five birth records

from this population what is the probability

that exactly three of the records will be for

full-term births?

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

Exercise

Suppose it is known that in a certain

population 10 percent of the population is

color blind. If a random sample of 25

people is drawn from this population, find

the probability that

a) Five or fewer will be color blind.

b) Six or more will be color blind

c) Between six and nine inclusive will be

color blind.

d) Two, three, or four will be color blind.

School of Public Health

12/13/16 12:53

The Poisson

Distribution

If the random variable X is the number of

occurrences of some random event in a certain

period of time or space (or some volume of matter).

The probability distribution of X is given by:

f (x) =P(X=x) =

, x = 0,1,..

Where:

x!

- The symbol e is the constant equal to 2.7183.

(Lambda) is called the parameter of the

distribution and is the average number of occurrences

of the random event in the interval (or volume)

distribution

1. f (x ) 0

2. f (x ) 1

3. E (X )

2

4. var(X )

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Continuous Probability

Distributions

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Properties of CPD

continuous variable is one that can

assume any value within a specified

interval of values assumed by the

variable.

1- Area under the curve = 1.

2- P(X = a) = 0, where a is a constant.

3- Area between two points a , b =

P(a<x<b) .

School of Public Health

The normal

distribution:

It is one of the most important probability

distributions in statistics.

The normal density is given by

1

e

f ( x)

( x )2

2 2

-< x < , -

, e : constants

: population mean.

: Population standard deviation.

School of Public Health

distribution

The following are some important characteristics of

the normal distribution:

2- The mean, the median, and the mode are all equal.

3- The total area under the curve above the x-axis is

one.

4-The normal distribution is completely determined

by the parameters and .

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depends on the two

parameters and .

determines the

location of

the curve.

But, determines

the scale of the curve, i.e.

the degree of flatness or

Peaked ness of the curve.

2

1 < 2 < 3

3

1

2

3

1 < 2 < 3

School of Public Health

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Note that :

1. P( - < x < + ) = 0.68

2. P( - 2< x < + 2)= 0.95

3. P( -3 < x < + 3) = 0.997

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distribution:

with mean equal 0 and a standard

deviation of 1.

The equation for the standard normal

distributionz is written as

f ( z)

,-<z<

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normal distribution

1- It is symmetrical about 0(zero).

2- The total area under the curve

above the x-axis is one.

3- We can use table to find the

probabilities and areas.

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Note that

The cumulative probabilities P(Z z) are given in

tables for -3.49 < z < 3.49.

Thus,

P (-3.49 < Z < 3.49) 1.

For standard normal distribution,

P (Z > 0) = P (Z < 0) = 0.5

Example :

If Z is a standard normal distribution, then

P( Z < 2) = 0.9772

is the area to the left to 2

and it equals 0.9772.

2

School of Public Health

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Example :

P(-2.55 < Z < 2.55) is the area between

-2.55 and 2.55, Then it equals

P(-2.55 < Z < 2.55) =0.9946 0.0054 -2.55

= 0.9892.

0

2.55

Example :

P(-2.74 < Z < 1.53) is the area between

-2.74 and 1.53.

P(-2.74 < Z < 1.53) =0.9370 0.0031

-2.74

= 0.9339.

School of Public Health

1.53

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Example :

P(Z > 2.71) is the area to the right to 2.71.

So,

P(Z > 2.71) = 1-P(Z<2.71)=

1 0.9966 = 0.0034.

2.71

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distribution (X) to standard

normal

distribution

(Z)? formula:

This is done

by the following

Example:

value of standard normal Z, If X= 6?

Answer:

x 63

z

1.5

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Normal Distribution

Applications

of many variables that are of interest. This allow us to answer

probability questions about these random variables.

Example :

The Uptime is a custom-made light weight battery-operated

activity monitor that records the amount of time an individual

spend the upright position. In a study of children ages 8 to 15

years. The researchers found that the amount of time children

spend in the upright position followed a normal distribution with

Mean of 5.4 hours and standard deviation of 1.3.Find

1-The probability that the child spend less than 3

hours in the upright position 24-hour period

P( X < 3) = P(

<

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

hours in the upright position 24-hour period

P( X > 5) = P(

>

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

hours in the upright position 24-hour period

P( X = 6.2) = 0

hours in the upright position 24-hour period

P( 4.5 5.4

1.3

7.3 5.4

< 1.3

<

)

= P( -0.69 < Z < 1.46 ) = P(Z<1.46) P(Z< -0.69)

= 0.9279 0.2451 = 0.6828

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