Afghanistan and Regional Actors

Afghanistan: School of militancy/Jihad

Afghanistan, one of the most isolated barren

landscape on earth.
It is difficult to believe that any empire would want
to invade it, and yet it has become unlikely target
and obsession of some of the worlds greatest
empires and superpowers.
Afghanistan has a history of resistance to foreign
invaders and occupation and rightfully continues to
enjoy the status of Graveyard of Empires.
But it has always been the part of all great power
rivalries called great game.

Afghanistan: School of militancy

Afghanistan has been a victim of imperial
intentions and contestation in recent history.
Domestically, it has passed through
wrangles between the forces of modernity
and orthodoxy,
From King Amanullah Khans attempts to
modernize Afghan society in 1920s
To Republic of president Daoud in 1973
To theocracy under Taliban reign in 1990s.

Regional Dimension from Comp. to

Coop.
Afghanistans
neighbours
have
traditionally
competed and intervened into Afghanistan to
promote their national interests.
No regional country has the leverage to impose its
will in Afghanistan.
But, they surely have capacity to spoil anything they
perceive divergent to their interests.
Now, after exhausting all military options and security
competition, they [neighbours] now are ready to
cooperate for security and stability of the region.

Historical Background
History of Afghanistan is full of up-heavals; no other
country in a modern international political system
has faced more blows than that of Afghanistan.
It has experienced the ire of Alexander the Great,
Babur in 1504 took the control of Kabul, entered
into Subcontinent and established
Mughal
Dynasty.
In 19th Century - Great Game - Afghanistan became
the battle ground between Tsarist Russia and British
Empire, the first Anglo-Afghan war took place in
(1838-1842) and second in (1878-1880).

Historical Background
The modern Afghanistan won its independence on
August 8, 1919 after attacks on British Forces by
King Amanullah Khan who ruled from 1919 to 1929.
During Zahir Shahs rule Afghanistan enjoyed a
period of comparative political stability and
economic prosperity that lasted till 1973 when
Daoud deposed Zahir Shah.
1973 coup of Daoud Afghanistan became republic.
Communist coup April 27, 1978 Saur Revolution
Tarakai ousted by Hafiz ul Amin in Sep 1979, illconceived reforms.

Historical Background
Soviet invasion December, 1979 Brzezinski
stinger.
UN brokered Geneva accords April 1988
USSR troops withdrawal Najeeb govt.
Step down March 17, 1992 Kabul was taken
over by Mujahedeen under Ahmed Shah
Masood.
Infighting among Mujahedeen gave way to
the emergence of Taliban 1994 regarded
Rabbani govt. as anti Pashtoon and corrupt.

Historical Background/Rise of
Taliban

Therefore, during the four years of Civil War

(1992-1996) they earned popular support
from the southern and eastern Afghanistan.
In November 1994 Taliban took over Qandahar,
in September 1995 Taliban captured Herat and
imprisoned its Governor Ismail Khan.
After a series of territorial victories Taliban
eventually seized the control of Kabul in
September 1996 and ousted the Rabbani
Government.

9/11 and Bonn Process

After 9/11 and subsequent US invasion ousted
Taliban within one month.
UN invited all major Afghan parties other than
Taliban, esp. NA & loyalists of the King Zahir Shah
to Bonn, Germany.
On December 5, 2001, the Afghan participants
signed the Bonn Agreement.
UNSC under 1386 resolution, also established
International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) to
administer the security affairs in Afghanistan.

9/11 and Bonn Process

In the leadership of Hamid Karzai the
Interim Government was formed on
December 22, 2001.
After six months, Loya Jirga comprising
1650 elders endorsed Hamid Karzai as the
head of the Transitional Authority.
In January 2004 Afghan constitution
enacted.
Hamid Karzai became president after
securing 55% votes in 2004 election.

Pakistan and Afghanistan

In contemporary world, there are no two states shares
as much common fate, culture, history and geopolitical dilemmas as Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Historically, relations between two sides have been
combination of optimism and gloom, collaboration
to antagonism since the origin of Pakistan in 1947.
Afghanistans irredentist claims Pashtoonistan stunt.
In 1950s Pakistani flags were burnt Pakistani
embassy was attacked diplomatic relations were
severed.

Pakistan and Afghanistan

In 1960s relations were at ease relatively.
1970s
premier
ZA
Bhutto
visited
Afghanistan that was reciprocated by Sardar
Daud.
Afghanistan in late 1978 descended into
chaos USSR invasion of Afghanistan in
1979.
Mujahedeen resistance supported by US,
Muslim world,
and Pakistan in
particular, (Operation Cyclone).

After 9/11 Pakistan and

After
9/11, Toppling Taliban regime was a universal mandate
Afghanistan
for Int. coalition.

Stable Afghanistan has always been vital to Pakistan, but

after a decade long chaos and construction, stability in
Afghanistan has become more crucial for Pakistan.
Pakistan Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned solution of
the Afghanistan issue.
Sartaj Aziz when discussed this with Daud Ahmedzai Karzai
accused Pakistan for playing Taliban card to have a sway in
Afghanistan.
Karzai had the history of accusing Pakistan for interference,
but in reality corrupt and incompetent Karzai with his
cronies took the escape route by charging Pakistan.

After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

Sympathetic policy of Pakistan has been very
antagonistically responded by Afghanistan, it has done
nothing to address Pakistani grievances TTP leadership
in Kunar and Nuristan as fugitives.
Pakistan gave 500 US$ Mn in aid to Afghanistan.
Pakistan fears that Talibans rise to full power - they will
support the TTP and strive for the Pashtoonistan stunt now
under the banner of jihad.
Pakistan has never claimed to have strategic depth in
Afghanistan nor does it intend to.
Many believe Pakistan had Strategic Depth Policy that
has now been replaced with strategic shift.

After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

Pakistan was compelled to opt for SD India,
Iran, Russia supported Northern Alliance.

We want to have strategic depth in

Afghanistan, but that does not imply controlling
it. If we have a peaceful, stable and friendly
Afghanistan, automatically we will have our
strategic depth because our western border will
be secure, and we will not be looking at two
fronts.
Gen. Kayani,
2010

After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

Pakistan support the reconciliation process as a
mediator and facilitator not as guarantor, as
eventually it would be the Afghan responsibility.
The strategic shift of Pakistan has four main goals;
first, good neighbourly relations with India and
Afghanistan;
second, bilateral trade with India;
Third, reaching out energy rich Central Asian;
Finally, bridging Central Asia to South Asia for
energy transportation.

After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

Today, Pakistan is concerned about the two
developments that might emerge in Afghanistan;
First, manoeuvring of the TTP by Afghan
intelligentsia;
Second, Pakistan does not want collaboration
between TTP and Afghan Taliban.
Both outcomes will be devastative for internal
security of Pakistan;
therefore, Pakistan is in favour of peaceful neighbour
with Taliban mainstreamed as political force.
This is how TTP can be deprived from being energized
by the support of Afghan Taliban.

After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

After Karzai
Ashraf Ghani defying all diplomatic norms went
straight to GHQ.
Relations became cordial till August, 2015, when the
news about the death of Mullah Omer Sabotaged
the Murree process of Dialogue started in July 2015.
In fact, Karzai and his aides sitting in NDS were not
happy with growing relations and Pakistani leverage.
Ghani, at home, was accused for having an
appeasement policy towards Afghanistan.

After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

After Gen Raheel Sharifs visit, it has been agreed to help
revive Afghan reconciliation process.
Pakistan lost Ghani?
No, because Ghani knows to what extent Pakistan went in
bringing to a table.
Including - be kicked out of Pakistan unless they obliged.
Pakistan now feels Ghani was a weak and unreliable
partner.
He would need to guarantee, and prove, greater control
over the process on his side for Pakistani trust.
Then Pakistan-backed reconciliation process then is
wishful.

India and Afghanistan

Indias sensitivities Pakistan, access to Central
Asia with Afghanistan as transit route.
India's immediate interest in post-Taliban 2001
Afghanistan is to prevent the conservative
takeover to avoid violence spill over into India.
Politically stable, secure, sovereign, and
democratic Afghanistan will significantly lessen
the likelihood of such threats.
Indias long term goal in relation to Afghanistan is
to use Afghanistan as land bridge, for access
to energy rich Central Asia.

India and Afghanistan

Around US$2 billion of aid to Afghanistan has been pledged
by India till date.
India has been projecting its soft power to the detriment
of Pakistan by building, universities, hospitals and building
of the parliament, that has earned a very high status for
India among Afghans.
An Indian steel consortium has won the iron ore mining
rights of Hajigak in Bamyan, a project of worth US$11
billion.
India has enduring strategic and economic interests in
Afghanistan; with the NATOs security cover India has
pursued its security and economic objectives in Afghanistan.

India and Afghanistan

Strategic agreement with Afghanistan in 2011 for
capacity building of ANSF.
India is empowering ANA, arming it, so after
withdrawal of US/NATO troops it does not descend
into chaos again.
India has been using Afghan soil as staging ground
for her clandestine operations inside Pakistan.
Economic growth has enabled India to play a
decisive role in regional security affairs.
Indias Afghan policy is Pakistan centric

Iran and Afghanistan

In 1990s, Iran backed the anti-Taliban Persian

speaking NA.
Therefore, was a staunch supporter of US-led
invasion of Afghanistan to over throw the Taliban
regime.
Iran wants to maintain status quo in Afghanistan so
no other power can threaten Iran from Afghanistan.
Although U.S. presence in Afghanistan is ominous to
Iran, but on the question of Taliban and stability in
Afghanistan both U.S. and Iran seem to be on the
same page.

Iran and Afghanistan

Immediate goal of Iran is to prevent its people from
any attack by U.S. from its bases in Afghanistan
was against SPA and wanted to sabotage
BSA.
On strategic fronts, Iran has three strategic
objectives;
First, Tehran neither want a regime closer to U.S.
nor Saudi backed conservative like Taliban.
Second; Iran will support Afghan govt. with
appropriate representation of persian speaking
Shiite Hazara and Tajik in the political system.
Third; protection of investments and personnel in

China and Afghanistan

Chinas policies have been very careful and
restrained and Xinjiang province centric.
China is committed to stabilize Afghanistan with
International Community.
After US withdrawal instable Afghanistan will be
a threat to China, Russia, Iran and the region.
It support Afghan-led Afghan-owned peace
process.
There is also a trilateral mechanism china
Pakistan Afghanistan, Keeping India away
given the sensitivities of Pakistan.

China and Afghanistan

China wants stabilized Afghanistan because of

possible radicalism to Xing Xian and it
investments in Afghanistan.
In 2008, a Chinese group acquired Aynak copper
deposit worth of US$ 3.5 billion for 30 years.
Estimated deposits of copper is potentially US$
100 billion worth and five times more of Afghan
GDP.
Conclusively, Afghanistan has very high place
in develop the West and One Belt One
Road projects.

Russia and Afghanistan

Afghanistan is observed by Russia through

the lenses of security threats to Russia and
its backyard CARs.
First, Russia worries that intensification of
Islamist extremism will energize militant
movements in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Secondly,
drug
trafficking
from
Afghanistan to CA and Russia.

Russia and Afghanistan

Therefore, Russia offered Northern supply

route to Afghanistan when Pakistan blocked
NATO supplies.
Threat of Islamization is a myth says many
security analysts justification for ruthless
policing.
Recent Qunduz fall Russians viewed it as a
warning to CA/Russia, even ISIS is also seen
by China and Russia as a threat more to
them than Afghanistan.

USA and NATO Allies

USA invaded Afghanistan after 9/11 in pursuit of Al-Qaeda
and their Taliban affiliates.
USA toppled Taliban established Bone Process and resultant
Karzai government.
They failed in democratization, state building, and nation
building of Afghanistan they now have assumed the role
train, advice, and assist.
US/NATO now insist to stay in Afghanistan by keeping 9,800,
later on 12,000 troops for coming years.
USA by living in Afghanistan intends to keep an eye on
nuclear ambitious Iran, put pressure on China and
resurgent Russia, Nuclear Pakistan, and ensure smooth
energy flow through Persian Gulf.

Conclusion
Afghanistan is still far from a functioning state despite 14
years long expensive campaign by international coalition.
Bone process was seen as state itself what about the
legitimacy of the state??
Afghanistan has regional solution from within with a
power sharing mechanism.
Any solution imposed by others will be short-lived.
Taliban must be mainstreamed as political entity.
Pakistan sensitivities must be dealt in relation to
Indian footprints on Afghan soil.
China should play a larger role for cherished peace and
security.