Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
DBM
Quantitative Techniques in Management
Semester - 1
Session - 4
Examples of continuous
probability distributions:
The normal and standard normal
f ( x)
Note constants:
=3.14159
e=2.71828
1 x 2
(
)
2
1
2
1 x 2
(
)
e 2 dx
Var(X)= =
2
1
2
1 x 2
(
)
2
e
dx
x2
Standard Deviation(X)=
1 x 2
(
)
2
dx ) 2
68-95-99.7 Rule
68% of
the data
95% of the data
99.7% of the data
68-95-99.7 Rule
in Math terms
1
2
1
2
1
2
1 x 2
(
)
e 2 dx
.68
1 x 2
(
)
e 2 dx
.95
1 x 2
(
)
2
e
dx
.997
and
Standard deviation () =1
Skewness
Positive Skewness: Mean Median
Negative Skewness: Median
Mean
112.3
127.8
143.3
25
20
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
15
10
0
80
90
100
110
120
POUNDS
130
140
150
160
96.8
127.8
158.8
25
20
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
15
10
0
80
90
100
110
120
POUNDS
130
140
150
160
81.3
127.8
174.3
25
20
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
15
10
0
80
90
100
110
120
POUNDS
130
140
150
160
Example
Suppose SAT scores roughly follows a normal
distribution in the U.S. population of collegebound students (with range restricted to 200800), and the average math SAT is 500 with a
standard deviation of 50, then:
68% of students will have scores between 450 and
550
95% will be between 400 and 600
99.7% will be between 350 and 650
Example
BUT
What if you wanted to know the math SAT
score corresponding to the 90th percentile
(=90% of students are lower)?
P(XQ) = .90
Q
1 x 500 2
)
50
dx
(
1
e 2
(50) 2
200
Solve for Q?
.90
1
p( Z )
e
(1) 2
1 Z 0 2
(
)
2 1
e
2
1
( Z )2
2
100
0
200
2.0
X
Z
( = 100, = 50)
( = 0, = 1)
Example
For example: Whats the probability of getting a math SAT score of 575 or less, =500 and =50?
575 500
Z
1.5
50
i.e., A score
P ( X 575)
(50)
200
1 x 500 2
(
)
2
50
e
dx
1.5
1
2
1
Z2
e 2 dz
Yes!
But to look up Z= 1.5 in standard normal chart = .9332
Practice problem
If birth weights in a population are normally
distributed with a mean of 109 oz and a
standard deviation of 13 oz,
a. What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 141 oz or heavier when sampling
birth records at random?
b. What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 120 or lighter?
Answer
a. What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 141 oz or heavier when sampling
birth records at random?
141 109
Z
2.46
13
From the chart 2.46 corresponds to a right tail (greater than)
of: P(Z2.46) = 1-(.9931)= .0069 or .69 %
area
Answer
b. What is the chance of obtaining a birth
weight of 120 or lighter?
120 109
Z
.85
13
Z=1.51
Z=1.51
Area is 93.45%
Exercises
Assuming the normal heart rate (H.R) in
normal healthy individuals is normally
distributed with Mean = 70 and Standard
Deviation =10 beats/min
Exercise # 1
Then:
1) What area under the curve is
above 80 beats/min?
Diagram of Exercise # 1
13.6%
33.35%
13.6 %
2.2 %
-3
-2
-1
0.159
0.15%
Since M=70, then the area under the curve which is above 80 beats per minute
corresponds to above + 1 standard deviation. The total shaded area corresponding to
above 1+ standard deviation in percentage is 15.9% or Z= 15.9/100 =0.159. Or we
can find the value of z by substituting the values in the formula Z= X-M/ standard
deviation. Therefore, Z= 70-80/10 -10/10= -1.00 is the same as +1.00. The value of z
from the table for 1.00 is 0.159
Exercise # 2
Then:
2) What area of the curve is above 90
beats/min?
Diagram of Exercise # 2
33.35%13.6%
2.2%
0.15
0.023
-3
-2
-1
Exercise # 3
Then:
3) What area of the curve is between
50-90 beats/min?
Diagram of Exercise # 3
33.35%
13.6%
2.2%
0.954
-3
-2
-1
0.15
Exercise # 4
Then:
4) What area of the curve is above 100
beats/min?
Diagram of Exercise # 4
33.35%
13.6%
2.2%
0.15
0.015
-3
-2
-1
6 7
Normal approximation to
binomial
.27
6 7
2 (4.8) 2.8
Z
2
1.39
1.39
P(Z<2)=.022
A little off, but in the right ballpark we could also use the value
to the left of 1.5 (as we really wanted to know less than but not
including 2; called the continuity correction)
2.37
1.39
1.39
P(Z-2.37) =.0069
SAMPLING and
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
Sampling Distributions
A sampling distribution is created by, as the
name suggests, sampling.
The method we will employ on the rules of
probability and the laws of expected value
and variance to derive the sampling distribution.
For example, consider the roll of one and two
dice
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
While there are 36 possible samples of size 2, there are only 11 values for
, and some (e.g. =3.5) occur more frequently than others (e.g.
=1).
1/36
2/36
3/36
4/36
5/36
6/36
5/36
4/36
3/36
2/36
1/36
5/36
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
is shown below:
6/36
P( )
4/36
P(
3/36
2/36
1/36
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Compare
2
4
5
6
1 with
the 3sampling
distribution
of
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Generalize
We can generalize the mean and variance
of the sampling of two dice:
to n-dice:
Example 1
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that
the amount of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is
actually a normally distributed random variable,
with a mean of 32.2 ounces and a standard
deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys one bottle, what is the
probability that the bottle will contain more than
32 ounces?
Regular old look up a normal probability.
Example 1
=32.2 and
Example 1
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed
that the amount of soda in each 32-ounce
bottle is actually a normally distributed random
variable, with a mean of 32.2 ounces and a
standard deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what
is the probability that the mean amount of the
four bottles will be greater than 32 ounces?
Example 1
Things we know:
1) X is normally distributed, therefore so will X.
2)
3)
= 32.2 oz.
Example 1
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the
probability that the mean amount of the four bottles
will be greater than 32 ounces?
Graphically Speaking
mean=32.
2
Example
The dean of the School of
Business claims that the average
salary of the schools graduates
one year after graduation is $800
per week (x) with a standard
deviation of $100 (x). Note: This
is the population. A second-year
student would like to check
whether the claim about the mean
is correct. He does a survey of 25
people who graduated one year
ago and determines their weekly
salary. He discovers the sample
mean to be $750. Is this
consistent with the deans
claim???
x 800
x / n 100 / 25 20
Sampling Distribution of a
Proportion
Normal Approximation to
Binomial
Binomial distribution with n=20 and p=.5 with a normal approximation
superimposed ( =10 and =2.24)
Normal Approximation to
Binomial
Binomial distribution with n=20 and p=.5 with a normal
approximation superimposed ( =10 and =2.24)
Hence:
and
Normal Approximation to
Binomial
mean:
Example 2
Starting salaries for MBA grads at two universities are normally distributed
with the following means and standard deviations. Samples from each
school are taken
University1
University2
Mean
62,000$/yr
60,000$/yr
Std.Dev.
14,500$/yr
18,300$/yr
50
60
samplesizen
Sampling Distribution
=SQRT(14,5002/50 + 18,3002/60)
= 3128.3
Sampling
Population A group that includes all the
cases (individuals, objects, or groups) in
which the researcher is interested.
Sample A relatively small subset from a
population.
Random Sampling
Simple Random Sample A sample
designed in such a way as to ensure that
(1) every member of the population has
an equal chance of being chosen and
(2) every combination of N members has
an equal chance of being chosen.
This can be done using a computer,
calculator, or a table of random numbers
Random Sampling
Systematic random sampling A method
of sampling in which every Kth member (K is
a ration obtained by dividing the population
size by the desired sample size) in the total
population is chosen for inclusion in the
sample after the first member of the sample
is selected at random from among the first K
members of the population.