Probability Concepts

Chapter 4 Part 1

Learning Outcomes
At the end of this chapter, students
should be able to:

Define probability and its associated

terminology
Apply the rules of probability
Explain and differentiate the independent
and dependent probabilities
Calculate probability of particular problem

4.1 Probability Basics

What is probability?
A numerical measure of the likelihood
(chance) that a specific event will occur
A generalization of the concept of percentage
Probability is associated with experiment,
outcomes and sample space
A probability near
0 indicates the event is unlikely to occur
1 indicates the event is likely to occur

4.1 Probability Basics

Example 1(a): When two balanced dice are rolled, 36

equally likely outcomes are possible:

The sum of the dice can be 11 in two ways. The

probability the sum is 11 is f/N = 2/36 = 0.056.
Doubles can be rolled in six ways. The
probability of doubles is f/N = 6/36 = 0.167.

4.1 Probability Basics

Example 1 (Dice): Two-balanced dice are rolled.

Determine the probability that:
a) The sum of the dice is 1
b) The sum of the dice is 12 or less
Solution:
a) The sum of the dice must be at least 2 or
more (f/N = 0/36=0).
Impossible event (Property 2)
b) The sum of the dice must be 12 or less (f/N =
36/36=1)
Certain event (Property 3)

Exercise 1 (Dice): Two-balanced dice are rolled.

Determine the probability that:
a) The sum of the dice is 6
b) The sum of the dice is 7 or 11
c) The sum of the dice is less than or equal to 4

4.2 Events & Sample Space

4.2 Events & Sample Space

Experiment

Outcomes

Sample Space

Toss a coin once

Head, Tail

S = {Head, Tail}

Roll a dice once

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Toss a coin twice

HH, HT, TH, TT

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Take a test

Pass, Fail

S = {Pass, Fail}

Select a student

Male, Female

S = {Male, Female}

Sample Space can be illustrated by drawing

Venn diagram
Tree diagram

4.2 Events & Sample Space

Representation of probability
Example : Tossing a coin once

Sample

space S = {H, T}

Venn Diagram
S

H
T

Tree Diagram

H
T

Exercise 2:
a) Use a tree diagram to find the sample space
for the gender of three children in a family.
Use B for boy and G for girl.
b) A committee consists of four executives, two
women and two men. Their names are Maria
(M), Susan (S), John (J) and Will (W). The
committee needs to select a chairperson and a
secretary. List all the possible outcomes for
appointed chairperson and secretary.

4.2 Events & Sample

Space

Example 2:
S = { One, Two, Three, Four, Five }
A = event the number selected is odd number
B = event the number selected is even number
C = event the number selected is beginning with
letter F
a)
b)
c)
d)

(not C) =
{ One, Two, Three }
(A or B) =
{ One, Two, Three, Four, Five }
(B and C ) = { Four }
(A and B) = ??

Exercise 3:
Reconsider Exercise 2 (a) on a family of three
children. Find each event
1) A : event of all boys
2) B : event of all girls or all boys
3) C : event of exactly two boys or two girls
4) (A and B) = ??

4.2 Events & Sample Space

Example 3: Identify the events that are mutually

exclusive
S = { One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six, Seven,
Eight, Nine , Ten }
A = event the number selected is odd number
B = event the number selected is even number
C = event the number selected is beginning with
letter F
D = event the number selected is beginning with
letter T
a)
b)
c)
d)

A and B = mutually exclusive

B and C = not mutually exclusive
A,B and D = not mutually exclusive
C and D =
mutually exclusive

Exercise 4:
Determine whether these events are mutually exclusive
a) Roll a die: Get a prime number (2, 3, 5), and get an odd
number.
b) Roll a die: Get a number greater than 3, and get a number
less than 3.
c) Select a student in your class: The student has brown hair,
and the student has blue eyes.
d) Select any course: It is a Calculus course, and it is an
English course.

4.3 Some Rules of Probability

Probability Notation
The Special Addition Rule
The Complementation Rule
The General Addition Rule

4.3 Some Rules of Probability

Probability Notation
If E is an event, then P(E) represents the probability that
event E occurs. It is read the probability of E.
Example: A balanced dice is rolled one, six equally
likely outcomes are possible. Use probability notation
to express the probability that the dice comes up an
even number
Even number can occur 3 ways 2, 4 and 6
f/N = 3/6 = 0.5

P(A)=0.5

4.3 Some Rules of Probability

Example :Determine the probability that a

randomly selected farm has between 100 500
acres
Size (acres)

Relative
frequency

Event

Under 10

0.084

10 50

0.265

50 100

0.161

100 180

0.149

180 260

0.077

260 500

0.106

500 - 1000

0.076

1000 2000

0.047

2000 & over

0.035

P(D or E or F)= P(D) + P(E) + P(F)

= 0.149 + 0.077 + 0.106
= 0.332

Exercise 5:
Reconsider Exercise 2 (b) on committee selection;
A = event a male is appointed chairperson
B = event Susan is appointed chairperson
C = event Will is appointed secretary
D = event only females are appointed
Find;
a) P(A or B)
b) P(A or D)

4.3 Some Rules of Probability

Example: Find the probability that a randomly

selected farm has less than 2000 acres
Size (acres)

Relative
frequency

Event

Under 10

0.084

10 50

0.265

50 100

0.161

100 180

0.149

180 260

0.077

260 500

0.106

500 - 1000

0.076

1000 2000

0.047

2000 & over

0.035

Let J = event the farm selected has less than 2000 acres
P(J) = 1 P(not J) = 1 0.035 = 0.965

4.3 Some Rules of Probability

* A and B are not mutually exclusive events

Example (pg 179):

Records for one year show that:
77.0% of the people arrested were male
16.5% were under 18 years of age
11.8% were males under 18 years of age
What is probability that person is either male or
under 18?
Solution:
M = event the person obtained is male and
E = event the person obtained is under 18
Apply the general addition rule:
P (M or E)
= P(M) + P(E) P(M & E)
= 0.770+0.165-0.118
= 0.817

Exercise 6:
Reconsider Exercise 5 on committee selection;
Find;
a) P(A or C)
b) P(B or D)

Exercise 7:
1) A box contains 3 strawberry doughnuts, 4 jelly doughnuts
and 5 chocolate doughnuts. If a person selects one
doughnut at random, find the probability that is either a
strawberry doughnut or chocolate doughnut.
2)

In a statistics class there are 18 juniors and 10 seniors; 6

of the seniors are females, and 12 of the juniors are
males. If a student is selected at random, find the
probability of selecting the following;
a)
b)

A junior or a female
A junior or a senior