Referendum Baseline

Public Opinion Poll

June 2010
Date Published: 4th June 2010

© 2010. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synovate Formerly Steadman
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Methodology
 Objective of the Survey

The objective of the survey was to assess voters views on issues

around the draft constitution including voting intentions and
prediction of the likely outcome of the referendum.

To inform and act as a planning guide for the various stakeholders

involved in the referendum process and to inform public debate

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Poll Methodology

Dates of polling May 22nd – May 28th

Sample Size 6017 respondents

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS

Recently registered voters by IIEC

Universe

Data collection Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the

methodology household level

Sampling error +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level

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Sample Distribution

Province National Distribution of Survey Sample

Population registered voters distribution
distribution
(IIEC Register)
(over 18 years)
Nairobi 10% 10% 10%
Central 14% 16% 16%
Coast 9% 8% 8%
Eastern 16% 16% 16%
North Eastern 3% 2% 2%
Nyanza 14% 14% 14%
Rift Valley 24% 24% 24%
Western 11% 11% 11%

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Media coverage on
draft constitutional
matters
Constitutional issues media coverage (1st to 30th May 2010)

Overall : 6,746 articles across 9 print titles, 36 radio channels and 5 Tv channels (May 2010)

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Constitutional issues coverage on TV (1st to 30th May 2010)

TV Basis; 925 items across 5 Tv channels

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Familiarity with the
proposed Draft
“How much do you know about the draft constitution?”

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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“What are the sources of what you know about the constitution?”

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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“How much would you say you know about the draft
constitution?” – By Gender and Setting

% indicating know a lot/something

about the draft

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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 “How much would you say you know about the draft
constitution?” – By Province

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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Views on the draft
“How Decisive are the voters?”

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote
YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote
YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”

Base: n=4374 (those who have made up their

minds)
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Reasons why you would vote against the proposed
constitution

Base: n=1141 (those will vote NO)

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Support for the draft by the level of familiarity

% Indicating will vote ‘yes to approve’

Base: n=3233 (those indicated will vote Yes to

approve)
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In you view is the draft constitution a very good constitution that does
not need to be amended, a good constitution that needs a few minor
amendments, an acceptable constitution that needs major amendments
or a bad constitution that should be rejected altogether?

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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Support for the draft
by support for
political personalities
and political parties
“If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote
for if that person was a presidential candidate?”

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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Support for the draft by political personalities followers.

Supporters of: Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote

Raila Odinga (n=2490) 74% 8% 12% 5%
Mwai Kibaki (n=708) 57% 13% 22% 8%
Martha Karua (n=431) 53% 17% 19% 12%
Uhuru Kenyatta (n=163) 50% 25% 16% 9%
Kalonzo Musyoka (n=778) 44% 26% 22% 9%
William Ruto (n=515) 10% 68% 17% 5%

Base: Supporters of each personality

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 “Which political party do you feel closest to?”

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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 Support for the draft by political parties followers.

Base: Supporters of each Party

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Support for the draft by Provinces.

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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Religious leaders and
the draft
“Should the religious leaders take sides, either “YES” or “No”
on the constitutional referendum?”

W
sh hich
o
su uld side
pp th
or ey
t?

Yes = 50%,
No 35%,
Not sure 16%

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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“Which side would you like the religious leaders to support?”

Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)

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Poll Methodology
The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6017
respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was
distributed across 71 districts.

The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95%
confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that
districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation.

The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random
sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews
are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions .

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected
within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in
the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member
randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member
selection.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll
questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is
no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork
Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the
field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

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 For further details Please contact:

George Waititu
Tel: + 254 20 4450 196
Mobile: +254 722206980
George.waititu@synovate .com

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