Beruflich Dokumente
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Expert Systems
12.1 Opening Vignette:
CATS-1 at General Electric
The Problem
Traditional Solution:
Apprenticeship
Good Short-term Solution
BUT GE Wanted
12.3 History of
Expert Systems
1. Early to Mid-1960s
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
3. Mid 1970s
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
BUT
Key Insight
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
4. Early 1980s
EMYCIN
EXPERT
META-DENDRAL
EURISKO
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
Latest ES Developments
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Expertise
Experts
Transferring Expertise
Inferencing Rules
Explanation Capability
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Expertise
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Experts
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Transferring Expertise
Activities
Knowledge acquisition
Knowledge representation
Knowledge inferencing
Knowledge transfer to the user
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Facts
Procedures (Usually Rules)
Regarding the Problem Domain
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Inferencing
Reasoning (Thinking)
The computer is programmed so
that it can make inferences
Performed by the Inference
Engine
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Rules
IF-THEN-ELSE
Explanation Capability
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Expert Systems
The system can operate with only a few rules (as the first
prototype)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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12.5 Structure of
Expert Systems
Development Environment
Consultation (Runtime)
Environment
(Figure 12.2)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Three Major ES
Components
Knowledge Base
Inference Engine
User Interface
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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All ES Components
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Knowledge Acquisition
Subsystem
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Knowledge Base
Facts
Special heuristics, or rules that direct the use of
knowledge
Knowledge is the primary raw material of ES
Incorporated knowledge representation
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Inference Engine
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Inference Engine
Major Elements
Interpreter
Scheduler
Consistency Enforcer
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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User Interface
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Blackboard (Workplace)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Explanation Subsystem
(Justifier)
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The User
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Other Participants
System Builder
Tool Builder
Vendors
Support Staff
Network Expert
(Figure 12.3)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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ES Development
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Participants
Domain Expert
Knowledge Engineer and
(Possibly) Information System
Analysts and Programmers
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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ES Shell
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Consultation
By Rapid Prototyping
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Interpretation systems
Prediction systems
Diagnostic systems
Design systems
Planning systems
Monitoring systems
Debugging systems
Repair systems
Instruction systems
Control systems
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Category
Interpretation
Problem Addressed
Inferring situation descriptions from observations
Prediction
Diagnosis
Design
Planning
Monitoring
Debugging
Repair
Instruction
Control
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Category
Employment requirement
Existing employment inventory
Strategic planning
Employers requirements
Candidates performance
Recruiting goals
State of labor market
Status of possible inside recruits
Planning, design,
interpretation,
diagnosis
Application blank
Personality and performance test
Physical examination
Selection criteria
Design, planning
monitoring, control
Individual diference
Profit amount of organization
Contributions to meeting organizational
goals
Organization s needs
Knowledge, skill, and ability needs to
perform the job
Employee s needs, performance, and
characteristics
Planning
Interpretation,
Design
Design, planning
prediction
Monitoring,
interpretation,
instruction, control
Debugging,
instruction, control
Monitoring, design,
planning
Planning ES
Eliminate any gaps that may exist between supply and demand
Recruitment
Layof
Overtime
Retirement
Dismissal
Job description
Job specification
Methods of recruiting
Sources of recruits
Recruiting policies
Selection ratio
Acceptance/Rejection
Methods of payment
Incentive form
Pay level
Pay structure
Rate ranges
Salary adjustment
Promotion
Improvement of performance
Layof
Transference
Contract
Lockout
Arbitration
Job Analysis ES
Fit each job into the total fabric of the organization
Recruitment ES
Distinguish between qualifications of potential applicants and desirable ones
Selection ES
Most likely meet organization s standards of performance and increase the proportion of
successful employees selected
Compensation ES
Meet all the criteria; equitable to employer and employee; incentive providing; and acceptable
to the employee
Performance Evaluation ES
Evaluate employee performance to meet with standards
Training ES
Match the organizations objectives with the firms human talent, structure, climate, and
efficiency
Labor-Management Relations ES
Negotiate with the union on the contract
(Source: Based on Byum, D. H. and E. H. Soh, Human Resource Management Expert Systems
Technology, Expert Systems, May 1994.
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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12.10 Benefits of
Expert Systems
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Lead to
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Longevity of Commercial
Expert Systems
(Gill [1995])
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Plus
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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For Success
1. Business applications justified by
strategic impact (competitive
advantage)
2. Well-defined and structured
applications
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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12.13 Types of
Expert Systems
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Application
Intelligent Agents
Intelligent Agents
Intelligent Agents
Intelligent Agents
Filter E-mail
Intelligent Agents
Expert Systems
Intelligent Agents
Expert systems
Expert Systems
Intelligent Agents
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Summary
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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ES success factors
Expert systems can make mistakes
Distinction between expert systems, and
knowledge systems
Some ES are ready-made
Some expert systems provide advice in a real-time
mode
Expertise may be provided over the Internet /
Intranets via ES
ES and AI provide support to the Internet /
Intranets
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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Vendor (Developer)
Description
DENDRAL
Stanford University
(Stanford, CA)
EURISKO
Stanford University
(Stanford, CA)
META-DENDRAL
Stanford University
(Stanford, CA)
STEAMER
U.S. Navy in
cooperation with Bolt,
Beranek, and Newman
Inc.
(Cambridge, MA)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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APPENDIX 12-B:
Classic Expert Systems
MYCIN
X-CON
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1. MYCIN
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MYCIN Features
Rule-based knowledge
representation
Probabilistic rules
Backward chaining method
Explanation
User-friendly system
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Aerospace/DoD
Logistics
Manpower planning
Situation assessment
Diagnosis & repair
Inventory management
Seismic analysis
Tactical scheduling
Training
Munitions requirements
Transportation
Scheduling
Pricing
Yield management
Resource allocation
Business Services
Profit forecasting
Product selection
Data dictionary
Custom interfaces
Custom training
Custom software tools
Software requirements
Service Industry
For a list of applications in the service industry
see Motiwalla and Gargaya [1992]
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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