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Ankita Mahajan
Probability:
Probability of a given event is an expression of likelihood of
occurrence of an event.
Probability is a number which ranges from 0 to 1.
Zero (0) for an event which cannot occur and 1 for an event which
is certain to occur.
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Favorable Events/ Cases:
It is the number of outcomes which entail the
happening of an event.
For example:
In throwing of 2 dice, the number of cases favorable to getting
the sum 5 is:
(1,4), (4,1), (2,3), (3,2).
For example:
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Approaches To Probability
There are 4 approaches to probability, namely:
Symbolically
Symbolically
Multiplication theorem
Definition: States that if 2 events A and B are
independent, then the probability of the occurrence of
both of them (A & B) is the product of the individual
probability of A and B.
Symbolically,
Probability of happening of both the events:
P(A and B) or P(A B) = P(A) x P(B)
If the result of one event IS affected by the result of another event, the
events are said to be dependent.
Therefore, the probability the both balls drawn are black is given by
P(AB) = P(A) x P(B/A)
= 4/9 x 3/8
= 1/6
Bayes Theorem
If an event A can occur only in conjunction with n mutually exclusive
& exhaustive events B1, B2, , Bn, & if A actually happens, then the
probability that it was preceded by an event Bi (for a conditional
probabilities of A given B1, A given B2 A given Bn are known) & if
marginal probabilities P(Bi) are also known, then the posterior
probability of event Bi given that event A has occurred is given by:
0.25 x 0.05 =
---------------------------------------------------------------
0.25 x 0.05 + 0.35 x 0.04 + 0.40 x 0.02
= 25/69
P(E3|E) = 16/69
= [(0.40 x 0.02)/(.25 x .05+.35 x .04+.40 x .02)]
CONCLUSION
Classical Probability: It is based on the idea that certain
occurrences are equally likely.
Example: - Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6 on a fair die are each
equally likely to occur.
Conditional Probability: The probability that an event
occurs given the outcome of some other event.
Independent Events: Events are independent if the
occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of
another event.
Joint Probability: Is the likelihood that 2 or more events will
happen at the same time.
Multiplication Formula: If there are m ways of doing one
thing and n ways of doing another thing, there are m x n ways
of doing both.
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