12 - 1

CHAPTER 12
Cash Flow Estimation and
Risk Analysis
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Proposed Project

Cost: $200,000 + $10,000 shipping

+ $30,000 installation. Depreciable
cost: $240,000.
Inventories will rise by $25,000 and
payables by $5,000.
Economic life = 4 years.
Salvage value = $25,000.
MACRS 3-year class.
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Sales: 100,000 units/year @

$2.
Variable cost = 60% of sales.
Tax rate = 40%.
WACC = 10%.
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Set up, without numbers, a time line

for the projects cash flows.

0 1 2 3 4

Initial OCF1 OCF2 OCF3 OCF4

Costs
+
(CF0)
Terminal
CF

NCF0 NCF1 NCF2 NCF3 NCF4

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Investment at t =
0:
Equipment -$200
Installation & Shipping -40
Increase in inventories -25
Increase in A/P 5
Net CF0 -$260

NOWC = $25 $5 = $20.

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Whats the annual depreciation?

Year Rate x Basis Depreciation

1 0.33 $240 $ 79
2 0.45 240 108
3 0.15 240 36
4 0.07 240 17
1.00 $240

Due to 1/2-year convention, a 3-year

asset is depreciated over 4 years.
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Operating cash flows:

1 2 3 4
Revenues $200 $200 $200 $200
Op. Cost, 60% -120 -120 -120 -120
Depreciation -79 -108 -36 -17
Oper. inc. (BT) 1 -28 44 63
Tax, 40% -- -11 18 25
Oper. inc. (AT) 1 -17 26 38
Add. Deprn 79 108 36 17
Op. CF 80 91 62 55
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Net Terminal CF at t = 4:

Recovery of NOWC $20

Salvage Value 25
Tax on SV (40%) -10
Net termination CF $35

Q. Always a tax on SV? Ever a

positive tax number?
Q. How is NOWC recovered?
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Should CFs include interest expense?

Dividends?

No. The cost of capital is

accounted for by discounting at
the 10% WACC, so deducting
interest and dividends would
be double counting financing
costs.
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Suppose $50,000 had been spent last

year to improve the building. Should
this cost be included in the analysis?

No. This is a sunk cost.

Analyze incremental investment.
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Suppose the plant could be leased out

for $25,000 a year. Would this affect
the analysis?

Yes. Accepting the project means

foregoing the $25,000. This is an
opportunity cost, and it should be
charged to the project.
A.T. opportunity cost = $25,000(1 T)
= $25,000(0.6) = $15,000 annual cost.
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If the new product line would decrease

sales of the firms other lines, would
this affect the analysis?

Yes. The effect on other projects CFs is

an externality.
Net CF loss per year on other lines
would be a cost to this project.
Externalities can be positive or negative,
i.e., complements or substitutes.
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Here are all the projects net CFs (in
thousands) on a time line:
0 1 2 3 4
k = 10%

-260 79.7 91.2 62.4 54.7

Terminal CF 35.0
89.7

Enter CFs in CF register, and I = 10%.

NPV = -$4.03
IRR = 9.3%
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Whats the projects MIRR?

0 1 2 3 4

-260 79.7 91.2 62.4 89.7

10% 68.6
10%
110.4
10% 106.1
MIRR = ? 374.8
-260

Can we solve using a calculator?

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Yes. CF0 = 0
CF1 = 79.7
CF2 = 91.2
CF3 = 62.4
CF4 = 89.7
I
NPV
=
=
10
255.97

INPUTS 4 10 -255.97 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT TV = FV = 374.8
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Use the FV = TV of inputs to find MIRR

INPUTS 4 -260 0 374.8

N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 9.6

MIRR = 9.6%. Since MIRR < k = 10%,

reject the project.
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Whats the payback period?

0 1 2 3 4

-260 79.7 91.2 62.4 89.7

Cumulative:
-260 -180.3 -89.1 -26.7 63.0

Payback = 3 + 26.7/89.7 = 3.3 years.

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If this were a replacement rather than a

new project, would the analysis change?

Yes. The old equipment would be

sold, and the incremental CFs would
be the changes from the old to the
new situation.
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The relevant depreciation would be

the change with the new equipment.
Also, if the firm sold the old machine
now, it would not receive the SV at
the end of the machines life. This is
an opportunity cost for the
replacement project.
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Q. If E(INFL) = 5%, is NPV biased?

n
CFt Re v t Cost t
A. YES. NPV .
t 0 1 k 1 k
t t

k = k* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP.

Inflation is in denominator but not in

numerator, so downward bias to NPV.
Should build inflation into CF forecasts.
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Consider project with 5% inflation.

Investment remains same, $260.
Terminal CF remains same, $35.
Operating cash flows:
1 2 3 4
Revenues $210 $220 $232 $243
Op. cost 60% -126 -132 -139 -146
Deprn -79 -108 -36 -17
Oper. inc. (BT) 5 -20 57 80
Tax, 40% 2 -8 23 32
Oper. inc. (AT) 3 -12 34 48
Add Deprn 79 108 36 17
Op. CF 82 96 70 65
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Here are all the projects net CFs (in

thousands) when inflation is considered.

0 1 2 3 4
k = 10%

-260 82.1 96.1 70.0 65.0

Terminal CF 35.0
100.0
Enter CFs in CF register, and I = 10%.
NPV = $15.0 Project should be accepted.
IRR = 12.6%
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What are the three types of project risk

that are normally considered?

Stand-alone risk
Corporate risk
Market risk
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What is stand-alone risk?

The projects total risk if it were

operated independently. Usually
measured by standard deviation (or
coefficient of variation). Though it
ignores the firms diversification
among projects and investors
diversification among firms.
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What is corporate risk?

The projects risk giving consideration

to the firms other projects, i.e.,
diversification within the firm.
Corporate risk is a function of the
projects NPV and standard deviation
and its correlation with the returns on
other projects in the firm.
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What is market risk?

The projects risk to a well-diversified

investor. Theoretically, it is measured
by the projects beta and it considers
both corporate and stockholder
diversification.
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Which type of risk is most relevant?

Market risk is the most relevant risk

for capital projects, because
managements primary goal is
shareholder wealth maximization.
However, since total risk affects
creditors, customers, suppliers, and
employees, it should not be
completely ignored.
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Are the three types of risk generally

highly correlated?

Yes. Since most projects the firm

undertakes are in its core business,
stand-alone risk is likely to be highly
correlated with its corporate risk,
which in turn is likely to be highly
correlated with its market risk.
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What is sensitivity analysis?

Sensitivity analysis measures the

effect of changes in a variable on
the projects NPV. To perform a
sensitivity analysis, all variables are
fixed at their expected values,
except for the variable in question
which is allowed to fluctuate. The
resulting changes in NPV are noted.
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What are the primary advantages and

disadvantages of sensitivity analysis?

ADVANTAGE:
Sensitivity analysis identifies
variables that may have the greatest
potential impact on profitability. This
allows management to focus on those
variables that are most important.
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DISADVANTAGES:
Sensitivity analysis does not reflect
the effects of diversification.
Sensitivity analysis does not
incorporate any information about
the possible magnitudes of the
forecast errors.
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Perform a scenario analysis of the

project, based on changes in the
sales forecast.
Assume that we are confident of all the
variables that affect the cash flows,
except unit sales. We expect unit sales
to adhere to the following profile:
Case Probability Unit sales
Worst 0.25 75,000
Base 0.50 100,000
Best 0.25 125,000
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If cash costs are to remain 60% of

revenues, and all other factors are
constant, we can solve for project
NPV under each scenario.

Case Probability NPV

Worst 0.25 ($27.8)
Base 0.50 $15.0
Best 0.25 $57.8
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Use these scenarios, with their given
probabilities, to find the projects
expected NPV, NPV, and CVNPV.

E(NPV)=.25(-$27.8)+.5($15.0)+.25($57.8)
E(NPV)= $15.0.
NPV = [.25(-$27.8-$15.0)2 + .5($15.0-$15.0)2
+ .25($57.8-$15.0)2]1/2
NPV = $30.3.
CVNPV = $30.3 /$15.0 = 2.0.
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The firms average projects have

coefficients of variation ranging from
1.25 to 1.75. Would this project be of
high, average, or low risk?

The projects CV of 2.0 would

suggest that it would be
classified as high risk.
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Is this project likely to be correlated

with the firms business? How would
it contribute to the firms overall risk?

We would expect a positive

correlation with the firms
aggregate cash flows. As long
as this correlation is not perfectly
positive (i.e., r 1), we would
expect it to contribute to the
lowering of the firms total risk.
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If the project had a high correlation

with the economy, how would
corporate and market risk be affected?

The projects corporate risk would

not be directly affected. However,
when combined with the projects
high stand-alone risk, correlation
with the economy would suggest
that market risk (beta) is high.
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If the firm uses a +/-3% risk adjustment

for the cost of capital, should the
project be accepted?

Reevaluating this project at a 13%

cost of capital (due to high stand-
alone risk), the NPV of the project
is -$2.2 .
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What is Monte Carlo simulation?

A risk analysis technique in

which probable future events
are simulated on a computer,
generating estimated rates of
return and risk indexes.