Statistics?

To guess is cheap. To guess wrongly is

expensive - Chinese Proverb
There are three kinds of lies: lies, d--n
lies, and statistics - Benjamin Disraeli,
British PM
First get your facts, then you can distort
them at your leisure - Mark Twain
Statistical Thinking will one day be as
necessary for efficient citizenship as
the ability to read and write - H. G.
Wells
All models are wrong, some models are1
What is statistics
In our world, through conversation with
others, through books, TV and sports, we
are continually confronted with collections
of facts or data

STATISTICS is a branch of mathematics

with the collection, analysis,
interpretation, and presentation of masses
of numerical data

Statistics is used to understand variability.

2
Why do we need statistics?

To know how to properly present

information
To know how to draw conclusions
about populations based on
sample information
To know how to improve processes
To know how to obtain reliable
forecasts
3
 Key definition
A population (universe) is the collection
of all members of a group
A sample is a portion of the population
selected for analysis
A parameter is a numerical measure
that describes a characteristic of a
population
A statistic is a numerical measure that
describes a characteristic of a sample
4
 Population vs. Sample

Population Sample

a b cd b c
ef gh i jk l m n gi n
o p q rs t u v w o r u
x y z y

Measures used to describe a Measures computed from

population are called parameters sample data are called
statistics
What is statistics
Frequently we wish to acquire information
or draw conclusions about a population (all
individuals or objects of a particular type)
Many times, the data at our disposal is a
sample (a portion or subject of a
population)
The field of statistics can be broken into 2
branches
Descriptive statistics concerned with the
organization, summation, and presentation of data
Inferential statistics - Value to apply to create
6
population or when data consist of a sample
What is statistics?
Probability a bridge between the 2
fields by studying random variation

Inferential statistics using sample

data to draw conclusion about the
entire population ( i.e. making an
inference about a group based on a
sample)

7
Descriptive statistics

8
Grouped Relative Frequency
Distribution
Relative Frequency Distribution of IQ for Two Classes

IQ Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

80 89 3 12.5 12.5
90 99 5 20.8 33.3
100 1096 25.0 58.3
110 119 3 12.5 70.8
120 1293 12.5 83.3
130 1392 8.3 91.6
140 1491 4.2 95.8
150 and over 1 4.2 100.0

Total 24 100.0 100.0

Descriptive statistics

10
Descriptive Statistics
Histograms
A graphical summary tool that permits
sorting of data into cells. It is especially
useful for finding population tendencies
(location and dispersion). Requires
multiple (20-30) observations to allow
process responses to exhibit their
tendencies. Also data specifics are lost
within the cell boundaries.

11
 Histogram
8. 10
0
1 0.IQ
. 12 40
1. 16
.
0
2
Fn
y
u
c
q
re

3
4
5
isto
H
6 ra
gm
o
fIQ
S
co
re
sfo
rT
w
C
la
se
Descriptive Statistics
The drawback is that within each cell, we
lose the data point values contained by
the cell. For example, we would not be
able to see from the graphical
representation that the 80s cell data all
lie within the range of 80 89. Therefore,
cell selection can be an art form requiring
some care.

13
Stem and Leaf Plot
Stem and Leaf Plot of IQ for Two Classes

Stem Leaf
8 279
9 3678
10 235679
11 159
12 078
13 1
14 0
15
16 2
Descriptive Statistics
Summarizing Data:

Central Tendency (or Groups Middle Values)

Mean
Median
Mode

Variation (or Summary of Differences Within Groups)

Range
Interquartile Range
Variance
Standard Deviation
Mean
Most commonly called the average.

Add up the values for each case and divide by the

total number of cases.

Y-bar = (Y1 + Y2 + . . . + Yn)

n

Y-bar = Yi
n
 Mean
Class A--IQs of 13 Students Class B--IQs of 13 Students
102 115 127 162
128 109 131 103
131 89 96 111
98 106 80 109
140 119 93 87
93 97 120 105
110 109

Yi = 1437 Yi = 1433
Y-barA = Yi = 1437 = 110.54 Y-barB = Yi = 1433 =
110.23
n 13 n 13
Mean
The mean is the balance point.
Each persons score is like 1 kg placed at the scores
position on a see-saw. Below, on a 200 cm see-saw, the
mean equals 110, the place on the see-saw where a
fulcrum finds balance:
1 kg at 1 kg at 1 kg at
93 cm 106 cm 110 cm 131 cm

17 21
4
units
units 0
above
below units
units
below
The scale is balanced because
17 + 4 on the left = 21 on the right
Mean
1. Means can be badly affected by outliers
(data points with extreme values unlike the
rest)
2. Outliers can make the mean a bad measure
of central tendency or common experience

Income in India

Ambani
All of Us
Mean Outlier
Median
The middle value when a variables values are ranked
in order; the point that divides a distribution into two
equal halves.

When data are listed in order, the median is the point

at which 50% of the cases are above and 50%
below it.

The 50th percentile.

Median
Class A--IQs of 13 Students
89
93
97
98
102
106
Median = 109
109
110 (six cases above, six
115 below)
119
128
131 140
Median
If the first student were to drop out of Class A, there
would be a new median:
89
93
97
98
102
106
109
110 Median = 109.5
115 109 + 110 = 219/2 = 109.5
119
128
(six cases above, six
131
below)
140
Median
1. The median is unaffected by outliers,
making it a better measure of central
tendency, better describing the typical
person than the mean when data are
skewed.

All of Us Ambani
outlier
Median
2. If the recorded values for a variable form a
symmetric distribution, the median and
mean are identical.
3. In skewed data, the mean lies further
toward the skew than the median.
Symmetric Skewed

Mean Mean
Median Median
Median
The middle score or measurement in a set of ranked
scores or measurements; the point that divides a
distribution into two equal halves.

Data are listed in orderthe median is the point at

which 50% of the cases are above and 50% below.

The 50th percentile.

Mode
The most common data point is called the
mode.

The combined IQ scores for Classes A & B:

80 87 89 93 93 96 97 98 102 103 105 106 109 109 109 110 111 115 119 120
127 128 131 131 140 162

mode!!

BTW, It is possible to have more than one mode!

Mode
18
.0 79
2.08.039
.7
6 .1
09
802
.0
31
56IQ
.0 7
1
.01
.01
9 .9
501
.7
2 .3
01
8
2 .01
01
4 .0
2
6
.2
1
.4
1

It may mot be at the

n
C
u
o
.6
1

t
.8
1
.0
2

center of a
distribution.

Data distribution on the

right is bimodal
(even statistics can be
open-minded)
 Mode
1. It may give you the most likely experience rather than
the typical or central experience.
2. In symmetric distributions, the mean, median, and
mode are the same.
3. In skewed data, the mean and median lie further
toward the skew than the mode.
Symmetric Skewed

Mean
Median
Mode Mode MedianMean
Descriptive Statistics
Summarizing Data:

Central Tendency (or Groups Middle Values)

Mean
Median
Mode

Variation (or Summary of Differences Within Groups)

Range
Interquartile Range
Variance
Standard Deviation
Range
The spread, or the distance, between the lowest and
highest values of a variable.

To get the range for a variable, you subtract its lowest value
from its highest value.
Class A--IQs of 13 Students Class B--IQs of 13 Students
102 115 127 162
128 109 131 103
131 89 96 111
98 106 80 109
140 119 93 87
93 97 120 105
110 109
Class A Range = 140 - 89 = 51 Class B Range = 162 - 80 = 82
 Interquartile Range
A quartile is the value that marks one of the divisions that breaks a series of values into
four equal parts.

The median is a quartile and divides the cases in half.

25th percentile is a quartile that divides the first of cases from the latter .
75th percentile is a quartile that divides the first of cases from the latter .

The interquartile range is the distance or range between the 25th percentile and the 75th
percentile. Below, what is the interquartile range?

25% 25% 25%

25%
of of
cases cases

0 250 500 750

Variance
A measure of the spread of the recorded values on a variable. A
measure of dispersion.

The larger the variance, the further the individual cases are from the
mean.

Mean
The smaller the variance, the closer the individual scores are to the
mean.

Mean
Variance
Variance is a number that at first seems
complex to calculate.

Calculating variance starts with a deviation.

A deviation is the distance away from the mean of a cases score.

Yi Y-bar
Variance
The deviation of 102 from 110.54 is? Deviation of 115?

Class A--IQs of 13 Students

102 115
128 109
131 89
98 106
140 119
93 97
110
Y-barA = 110.54
Variance
The deviation of 102 from 110.54 is? Deviation of 115?
102 - 110.54 = -8.54 115 - 110.54 = 4.46
Class A--IQs of 13 Students
102 115
128 109
131 89
98 106
140 119
93 97
110
Y-barA = 110.54
Variance
We want to add these to get total deviations, but if we
were to do that, we would get zero every time. Why?
We need a way to eliminate negative signs.

Squaring the deviations will eliminate negative signs...

A Deviation Squared: (Yi Y-bar)2

Back to the IQ example,

A deviation squared for 102 is: of 115:
(102 - 110.54)2 = (-8.54)2 = 72.93 (115 - 110.54)2 = (4.46)2 = 19.89
Variance
If you were to add all the squared deviations
together, youd get what we call the
Sum of Squares.

Sum of Squares (SS) = (Yi Y-bar)2

SS = (Y1 Y-bar)2 + (Y2 Y-bar)2 + . . . + (Yn Y-bar)2

 Variance
Class A, sum of squares: Class A--IQs of 13 Students
(102 110.54)2 + (115 110.54)2 + 102 115
(126 110.54)2 + (109 110.54)2 + 128 109
(131 110.54)2 + (89 110.54)2 + 131 89
(98 110.54)2 + (106 110.54)2 + 98 106
(140 110.54)2 + (119 110.54)2 + 140 119
(93 110.54)2 + (97 110.54)2 + 93 97
(110 110.54) = SS = 2825.39 110
Y-bar = 110.54
Variance
The last step

The approximate average sum of squares is the

variance.

SS/N = Variance for a population.

SS/n-1 = Variance for a sample.

Variance = (Yi Y-bar)2 / n 1

Variance
For Class A, Variance = 2825.39 / n - 1
= 2825.39 / 12 = 235.45

How helpful is that???

Standard Deviation
To convert variance into something of meaning, lets create
standard deviation.

The square root of the variance reveals the average

deviation of the observations from the mean.

s.d. = (Yi Y-bar)2

n-1
Standard Deviation
For Class A, the standard deviation is:

235.45 = 15.34

The average of persons deviation from the mean IQ of

110.54 is 15.34 IQ points.

Review:
1. Deviation
2. Deviation squared
3. Sum of squares
4. Variance
5. Standard deviation
Standard Deviation
1. Larger s.d. = greater amounts of variation around the mean.
For example:

19 25 31 13 25 37
Y = 25 Y = 25
s.d. = 3 s.d. = 6
2. s.d. = 0 only when all values are the same (only when you have a
constant and not a variable)
3. If you were to rescale a variable, the s.d. would change by the same
magnitudeif we changed units above so the mean equaled 250, the s.d.
on the left would be 30, and on the right, 60
4. Like the mean, the s.d. will be inflated by an outlier case value.
Box-Plots
IQR = 27;
There is no
outlier.

162

Boxplots of Form 1 and Form 2 123.5

(means are indicated by solid circles)

18.5
M=110.5 106.5

96.5

17.5
82

16.5

Form 1 Form 2
 Probability functions
A probability function maps the possible
values of x against their respective
probabilities of occurrence, p(x)
p(x) is a number from 0 to 1.0.
The area under a probability function is
always 1.
Discrete example: roll of a die

p(x)

1/6

x
1 2 3 4 5 6

P(x) 1
all x
Probability mass function
(pmf)
x p(x)
1 p(x=1)=1
/6
2 p(x=2)=1
/6
3 p(x=3)=1
/6
4 p(x=4)=1
/6
5 p(x=5)=1
/6
6 p(x=6)=1
/6
1.0
Cumulative distribution
function (CDF)

1.0 P(x)
5/6
2/3
1/2
1/3
1/6
1 2 3 4 5 6 x
Cumulative distribution
function
x P(xA)
1 P(x1)=1/6

2 P(x2)=2/6

3 P(x3)=3/6

4 P(x4)=4/6

5 P(x5)=5/6

6 P(x6)=6/6
 Review Question 1

If you toss a die, whats the probability that you

roll a 3 or less?

a. 1/6
b. 1/3
c. 1/2
d. 5/6
e. 1.0
 Review Question 2

Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face

values is six. What is the probability that at least
one of the dice came up a 3?

a. 1/5
b. 2/3
c. 1/2
d. 5/6
e. 1.0
 Review Question 2

Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face

values is six. What is the probability that at least
one of the dice came up a 3?

a. 1/5 How can you get a 6 on two dice?

b. 2/3 1-5, 5-1, 2-4, 4-2, 3-3
c. 1/2 One of these five has a 3.
d. 5/6 1/5
e. 1.0
 Continuous probability

The probability function that

accompanies a continuous random
variable is a continuous
mathematical function that
integrates to 1.
For example, recall the negative
exponential function (in probability,
f ( x) e x this
is called
This anintegrates
function exponential
to 1: distribution):

e
x x
e 0 1 1
0
0
 Continuous case: probability
density function (pdf)

p(x)=e-x

The probability that x is any exact particular value (such as 1.9976) is 0;

we can only assign probabilities to possible ranges of x.
 For example, the probability of x falling within 1 to 2:

Clinical example: Survival times

after lung transplant may roughly
follow an exponential function. p(x)=e-x
Then, the probability that a patient
will die in the second year after 1
surgery (between years 1 and 2) is
23%.

x
1 2

2 2

x x
P(1 x 2) e e e 2 e 1 .135 .368 .23
1
1
 Example 2: Uniform
distribution
The uniform distribution: all values are equally likely.
f(x)= 1 , for 1 x 0
p(x)

x
1

We can see its a probability distribution because it integrates

to 1 (the area under the curve is 1): 1 1

1 x

1 0 1
0
0
 Example: Uniform
distribution
Whats the probability that x is between 0 and ?

p(x)

0 x
1

P( x 0)=
 Expected Value and Variance
All probability distributions are
characterized by an expected value
(mean) and a variance (standard
deviation squared).
 Expected value of a random variab

Expected value is just the average or mean

() of random variable x.

Its sometimes called a weighted average

because more frequent values of X are
weighted more highly in the average.

Its also how we expect X to behave on-

average over the long run (frequentist
view again).
 Expected value, formally

Discrete case:

E( X ) x p(x )
all x
i i

Continuous case:

E( X )
all x
xi p(xi )dx
 Symbol Interlude
E(X) =
these symbols are used interchangeably
 Example: expected value

For the following probability distribution

x 10 11 12 13 14
P(x) .4 .2 .2 .1 .1

x p( x) 10(.4) 11(.2) 12(.2) 13(.1) 14(.1) 11.3

i 1
i
Variance/standard deviation
2=Var(x) =E(x-)2

The expected (or average) squared

distance (or deviation) from the
mean

2 Var ( x) E[( x ) 2 ]
all x
( xi ) 2 p(xi )
 Variance, continuous

Discrete case:

Var ( X ) (x
all x
i ) p(xi )
2

Continuous case?:

( xi ) p(xi )dx
2
Var ( X )
all x
 Symbol Interlude
Var(X)= 2
SD(X) =
these symbols are used interchangeably
 Review Question 3
The expected value and variance of a
coin toss (H=1, T=0) are?

a. .50, .50
b. .50, .25
c. .25, .50
d. .25, .25
 Review Question 3
The expected value and variance of
a coin toss are?

a. .50, .50
b. .50, .25
c. .25, .50
d. .25, .25
 Important discrete
probability distribution:
The binomial
 Binomial Probability
Distribution
A fixed number of observations (trials), n
e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; 20 patients; 1000 people surveyed
A binary outcome
e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; disease or no disease
Generally called success and failure
Probability of success is p, probability of failure is 1 p
Constant probability for each observation
e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we
toss the coin
 Binomial distribution
Take the example of 5 coin tosses.
Whats the probability that you flip
exactly 3 heads in 5 coin tosses?
 Outcome Probability
THHHT (1/2)3x(1/2)2
HHHTT (1/2)3x(1/2)2
TTHHH (1/2)3x(1/2)2
HTTHH (1/2)3x(1/2)2 The probability
ways to
5 arrange 3
HHTTH (1/2)3x(1/2)2 of each unique
heads in
HTHHT
THTHH
(1/2)3x(1/2)2
(1/2)3x(1/2)2
outcome (note:
3 5 trials HTHTH (1/2)3x(1/2)2
they are all
equal)
HHTHT (1/2)3x(1/2)2
THHTH (1/2)3x(1/2)2
10 arrangements x (1/2)3x(1/2)2

5
C3 = 5!/3!2! = 10

Factorial review: n! = n(n-1)(n-2)

 5

P(3 heads and 2 tails) = xP(heads) 3
xP(tails) 2
=

3

10x()5=31.25%
 Binomial distribution function:
X= the number of heads tossed in 5 coin tosses
p(x)

x
0 1 2 3 4 5
number of heads
 Binomial distribution,
generally
Notethegeneralpatternemergingifyouhaveonlytwopossible
outcomes(callthem1/0oryes/noorsuccess/failure)innindependent
trials,thentheprobabilityofexactlyXsuccesses=
n = number of trials

n
X n X
p (1 p )
X
1-p = probability
of failure
X=# p=
successes probability of
out of n success
trials
 Binomial distribution:
example

If I toss a coin 20 times, whats the

probability of getting exactly 10
heads?
20
10 10
(.5) (.5) .176
10
 Binomial distribution:
example
If I toss a coin 20 times, whats the
probability of getting of getting 2
or fewer heads?
20
20!

0
(.5) (.5)
20
(.5) 20 9.5 x10 7
0 20!0!
20
20!

1 19
(.5) (.5) (.5) 20 20 x9.5 x10 7 1.9 x10 5
1 19!1!
20
20!

2 18
(.5) (.5) (.5) 20 190 x9.5 x10 7 1.8 x10 4
2 18!2!
1.8 x10 4
 **All probability distributions are
characterized by an expected value and
a variance:
If X follows a binomial distribution with
parameters n and p: X ~ Bin (n, p)

Then:
Note: the variance will
E(X) = np always lie between
0*N-.25 *N
Var (X) = np(1-p) p(1-p) reaches maximum at
p=.5
SD (X)= np (1 p )
P(1-p)=.25
 Review Question

Whats the probability of getting exactly

5 heads in 10 coin tosses?

10

a. 0
5
(.50) (.50)

5

b. 10
5
(.50) (.50)
5

5
c. 10
10
(.50) (.50)
5

d.
5

10
10 0
(.50) (.50)
10
 Review Question 5

Whats the probability of getting exactly

5 heads in 10 coin tosses?

10

a. 0
5
(.50) (.50)

5

b. 10
5
(.50) (.50)
5

5
c. 10
10
(.50) (.50)
5

d.
5

10
10 0
(.50) (.50)
10
 Review Question 6

A coin toss can be thought of as an example of a

binomial distribution with N=1 and p=.5. What are
the expected value and variance of a coin toss?

a. .5, .25
b. 1.0, 1.0
c. 1.5, .5
d. .25, .5
e. .5, .5
 Review Question

A coin toss can be thought of as an example of a

binomial distribution with N=1 and p=.5. What are
the expected value and variance of a coin toss?

a. .5, .25
b. 1.0, 1.0
c. 1.5, .5
d. .25, .5
e. .5, .5
 Review Question

If I toss a coin 10 times, what is the expected

value and variance of the number of heads?

a. 5, 5
b. 10, 5
c. 2.5, 5
d. 5, 2.5
e. 2.5, 10
 Review Question

If I toss a coin 10 times, what is the expected

value and variance of the number of heads?

a. 5, 5
b. 10, 5
c. 2.5, 5
d. 5, 2.5
e. 2.5, 10
Continuous Probability Distributions

Uniform
Triangular
Normal
Exponential
 The Uniform Distribution
Equally Likely chances of
occurrences of RV values f(x)
between a maximum and a
minimum
1/(b-a)
Mean = (b+a)/2
Variance = (b-a)2/12
a is a location parameter
a b x
b-a is a scale parameter
no shape parameter
 The Uniform Distribution

Probability Density Function f(x)

1
f x if a x b
ba 1/(b-a)
Distribution Function
F x 0 if x < a
xa
F x if a x b x
ba a b
F x 1 if b x
 The Triangular Distribution
f(x)

Symmetric

a c b x
 The Triangular Distribution
f(x) Skewed (+) to the Right

a c b x
 The Triangular Distribution
f(x) Skewed (-) to the Left

a c b x
 The Triangular Distribution
Probability Distribution Function

2 x a
f x if a x c
b a c a
2 b x
f x if c x b
b a b c
f x 0 otherwise
 The Triangular Distribution
Distribution Function
F x 0 if x a

x a
2

F x if a x c
b a c a
b x
2

F x 1 if c x b
b a b c
F x 1 if x b
 The Triangular Distribution
Parameters:Minimum a, maximum b, most likely c
Symmetric or skewed in either direction
a location parameter
(b-a) scale parameter
c shape parameter
Mean = (a+b+c) / 3
Variance = (a2 + b2 + c2 - ab- ac-bc)/18
Used as rough approximation of other distributions
 The Normal Distribution
Bell Shaped
Symmetrical f(X)

Mean, Median and

Mode are Equal X
Middle Spread

Equals 1.33 Mean

Median
Random Variable has Mode
Infinite Range
The Mathematical Model
1
1 X 2

f X

2
e
2 2

f(X) = frequency of random variable X

= 3.14159; e = 2.71828
= population standard deviation
X = value of random variable (- < X < )
= population mean
Many Normal Distributions

There are
an Infinite
Number

Varying the Parameters and , we obtain

Different Normal Distributions.
 Normal Distribution:
Finding Probabilities
Probability is the
area under the
curve! P (c X d ) ?
f(X)

X
c d
 Which Table?

Each distribution
has its own table?

Infinitely Many Normal Distributions Means

Infinitely Many Tables to Look Up!
Normal Distribution

The Standard Normal Distribution

To compute P(a x b) when X ~ N(, 2), we must evaluate

b b ( x )2
1

f ( x)dx
a a 2
e 2 2
dx

Note: None of the standard integration techniques can be used

to evaluate this pdf. Instead, for = 0, and 2 = 1, the pdf has
been evaluated and values have been computed. Using the
table, probabilities for any other values of and 2 can be
determined

98
Normal Distribution

The normal distribution for parameters values

2
= 0, and = 1 is called the standard normal
distribution. A r.v. that has a standard
distribution is called a standard normal random
variable (denoted by Z). The pdf of Z is:
z2
1
f ( z) e 2
, z
2

99
Normal Distribution

The cumulative distribution of Z is

z
P( Z z ) f ( y)dy

and is denoted by (Z)

Note: The N(0,1) Table returns the cumulative

probability up to z or (z)

100
Normal Distribution

Non-standard Normal Distribution

The table only provides probabilities for r.v.

following the N(0,1) distribution. Thus, when X
2 2
~ N(, ), (i.e. not = 0, = 1), probabilities
involving X are computed by standardizing
the r.v. to N(0,1) scale.

101
Normal Distribution

x
The Standardized Variable is

Subtracting the shifts the mean from

to zero, and then dividing by scales the
variable, so that the standard deviation is
one rather than .

102
Normal Distribution

Def: If X has a normal distribution with mean and variance

2 [X~N(, 2)] then:

x
Z is a standard normal r.v. [Z~N(0,1)]

Note:
X x x x
P( X x) P( ) P( Z ) ( )

103
 Solution: The Cumulative
Standardized Normal Distribution
Cumulative Standardized Normal
Distribution Table (Portion)
0 and 1 .5478
Z .00 .01 .02
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 Shaded Area
Exaggerated
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871
Z = 0.12
0.3 .5179 .5217 .5255 Probabilities
Only One Table is Needed
 Standardizing Example
X 6.2 5
Z 0.12
10
Normal Standardized
Distribution Normal Distribution

= 10 Z = 1

= 5 6.2 X = 0 .12 Z
Shaded Area Exaggerated
 Example:
P(2.9 < X < 7.1) = .1664
x 2.9 5
z .21
10
Normal x 7.1 5
z .21 Standardized
Distribution 10 Normal Distribution
= 10 Z = 1
.1664

.0832 .0832

2.9 5 7.1 X -.21 0 .21 Z

Shaded Area Exaggerated
 Example: P(X 8) = .3821
x 85
z ..30
10
Normal Standardized
Distribution Normal Distribution

= 10 =1
.5000

.3821
.1179

=5 8 X = 0 .30 Z
Shaded Area Exaggerated
 Finding Z Values
for Known Probabilities
What Is Z Given Standardized Normal
Probability = 0.1217? Probability Table (Portion)

=1 Z .00 .01 0.2

.1217
0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080

0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478

= 0 .31 Z 0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871

Shaded Area 0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255

Exaggerated
 Recovering X Values
for Known Probabilities
Normal Distribution Standardized Normal Distribution

= 10 =1
.1217 .1217

=5 ? X = 0 .31 Z

X Z= 5 + (0.31)(10) = 8.1
Shaded Area Exaggerated
T-distribution
Use of the t-distribution is similar to
the use of the standard normal
distribution, except that the degrees
of freedom must be accounted for.
The estimation of the true process
mean by the experimental mean
creates the loss of one degree of
freedom in estimating the true
process standard deviation by s.
110
T-Distribution
t-distribution or students t-distribution
Using S for in computing standardized z-values to look up on the
normal table is not trustworthy for small sample sizes (n<30).

Why? Because the CLT only applies to large samples.

As a result, when n is small and/or is unknown, you must use an

alternate distribution, the t-distribution.

Theorem When X is the mean of a random sample of size n from a

normal distribution with mean , the random variable
X
T ~ t-distribution with n-1degrees of freedom.
s n
Note: A t-distribution has 1 parameter called the degrees of freedom,
. Possible values of are 1, 2, . Each different value of
corresponds to a different t-distribution. df = n-1.
111
What if is Unknown?
It is more realistic to assume that
the value of is unknown.
(If we dont know the value of ,
then we probably dont know the
value of ).
In this case, we use s to estimate
.
What if is Unknown?
Let us assume that the population
is normal or nearly normal.
Then the distribution of x is
normal.
x is N(, /n).
The trouble is, x is not N(, s/n)
unless the sample size is large
enough, say n 30.
What if is Unknown?
It has a distribution called
Students t distribution.
t = ( x )/(s/n).
The t Distribution
The shape of the t distribution is
very similar to the shape of the
standard normal distribution.
The t distribution has a (slightly)
different shape for each possible
sample size.
They are all symmetric and
unimodal.
They are all centered at 0.
The t Distribution
They are somewhat broader than
Z, reflecting the additional
uncertainty resulting from using s
in place of .
As n gets larger and larger, the
shape of the t distribution
approaches the standard normal.
Degrees of Freedom
If the sample size is n, then t is
said to have n 1 degrees of
freedom.
We use df to denote degrees of
freedom.