Chapter 20:

The Atmosphere, Climate and

Global Warming
Overview
Fundamental Global Warming Questions
Weather and Climate
The Origin of the Global Warming Issue
The Atmosphere
How We Study Climate
The Greenhouse Effect
The Major Greenhouse Gases
Climate Change and Feedback Loops
Causes of Climate Change
The Oceans and Climate Change
Forecasting Climate Change
Potential Rates of Global Climate Change
Potential Environmental, Ecological and Human
Effects of Global Warming
Adjusting to Potential Global Warming
Fundamental Questions About
Global Warming
Concern arises from two pieces of
evidence:
Increase in average surface
temperature of the Earth from 1860 to
the present
0.2C per decade since 1960
Increase in carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere
Measured on Mauna Loa in Hawaii by
Charles Keeling
Fundamental Questions About
Global Warming
What is the origin of rapid warming in the geologic
record?
Is the present rapid warming unprecedented or at
least so rare that many living things will not be able
to respond successfully to it?
To what extent, have people caused it?
What are likely to be the effects on people?
What are likely to be the effects on all life on Earth?
How can we make forecasts about it and other
kinds of climate change?
What can we do to minimize potential negative
effects?
Weather and Climate
Weather
whats happening now in the
atmosphere near the earths surface
Temperature, pressure, cloudiness,
precipitation, winds
Climate is the average weather
Usually refers to long periods of time
Classified mainly by latitude and
wet/dry
The Climate is Always
Changing
Climate has warmed and cooled may
times in Earths history
Times of high temp involve relatively ice
free periods
Times of low temp involve glacial events
The Origins of the Global
Warming Issue
Relationship between chemistry of
planets atmosphere and planets
surface temperature
Certain gases trap heat energy and
warm the planet
Since this idea was first introduce has
stirred controversy
The Atmosphere
Thin layer of gases that envelops Earth
Held near the surface by gravitation and
pushed upward by thermal energy.
Comprised of
Nitrogen (78%)
Oxygen (21%)
Argon (0.9%)
Carbon dioxide (0.03%)
Water vapor
Trace amounts of other gases/pollutants
Dynamic system
Structure of the Atmosphere
Made up of several vertical layers
Troposphere - bottom layer
Where weather occurs
Temperature decrease with elevation

At the top is tropopause - acts as a lid

Stratosphere - above the troposphere

Stratospheric ozone layer just above the
tropopause
Protects again UV radiation
Atmospheric Processes
Processes generally defined by
pressure, temperature, and water
vapor content
Pressure is force per unit area
Caused by the weight of overlying
atmospheric gases on those below
Decreases with altitude

Low pressure systems usually bring clouds

High pressure systems usually bring clear

skies
Atmospheric Processes
Temperature is the relative hotness or
coldness of materials
Measure of thermal energy
Water vapor content is how much water
is in the gaseous form
Varies from 1% to 4%
Atmospheric Processes
Atmosphere moves due to
Earths rotation
Differential heating
Produces global patterns of
prevailing winds and latitudinal belts
of high and low pressure
What Makes
the Earth
Warm
Almost all the
energy from the sun
Sunlight comes in a
wide range of
electromagnetic
radiation
Long to short
wavelengths
Most of the radiation
that reaches the
Earth is in the
infrared and visible
wavelengths
What Makes the Earth Warm
Under typical conditions Earths
atmosphere:
Reflects ~30% of the electromagnetic
energy that comes in from the sun
absorbs ~25%
The remaining ~45% gets to the surface
Radiates back to the atmosphere or into
outer space
How We Study Climate
Instrumental Records
Climate measurements began in 1860s
Data from pre 19th century is
Estimates
Extrapolated

Interpolated

We have very accurate data since 1960

Improved instrumentation
How We Study Climate
Historical Records
Go back a few centuries
Mostly qualitative
Books, newspapers, journal articles, personal
journals, ships logs, travelers diaries, and farmers
logs
Paleoproxy records
Proxy data- not strictly climatic, but provides
insight into climate
Tree rings, sediments, ice cores, fossil pollen, corals,
and carbon14 (14C)
Proxy Climate Records
Ice Cores
Polar ice and mountain glaciers have ice
records that go back 100s or 1000s of
years
Ice cores
Oldest have years
is 800,000
small bubbles of
air
Can measure
carbon dioxide and
methane levels
from the time the
ice was created
Proxy Climate Records
Tree Rings
Many trees
create one
growth ring per
year
Width, density
and ionic
composition of
the ring are
indicative of
climate
Proxy Climate Records
Sediment
Biological material (ex: pollen) is
deposited on the land and stored for
extended periods in lake, bog, and pond
sediments
Pollen is useful
Quantity of pollen is an indicator of relative
abundance of each plant species
Pollen can be dated

Can be used to construct a climate history

Proxy Climate Record
Coral
Coral exoskeleton made of calcium
carbonate
Carbonate contains isotopes of oxygen
Used to determine temp of water in which

the coral grew

Proxy Climate Record
Carbon-14 and sun sunspots
The Green House Effect
Each gas in the atmosphere has its
own absorption spectrum
Certain gases are especially strong
absorbers in the infrared
They absorb radiation emitted by the
warmed surfaces of the Earth
They then re-emit this radiation
This increases the temperature of the
earths surface
The Green House Effect
Natural phenomenon
Major greenhouse gases include
Water vapor
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Some oxides of
nitrogen
CFCs
Greenhouse Effect
No one doubts that the greenhouse effect
exists and affects planets
The puzzle arises on the Earth about
relative importance of greenhouse gases
in affecting climate
Evidence indicates that carbon dioxide,
methane, and temperature rise and fall
together
Most scientists conclude that greenhouse
gases are causing climate change
Positive and Negative
Feedbacks
The atmosphere and its interactions
w/ the ocean and land surfaces
experience positive and negative
feedbacks
Negative feedback
Warms temps warm air and lead to
increased evaporation
Evaporation leads to more cloud
formation which reflects more sunlight
which could cool the surface.
Positive and Negative
Feedbacks
Positive feedback
Warms temps warm air and lead to
increased evaporation but instead of
clouds forming remain as water vapor
Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. The
warmer it gets the more water vapor,
and the process continues
Causes of Climate Change
19th century
Scientists began to understand that
climate changed greatly over long periods
There were times of continental glaciations
Evidence - debris at the edges of existing
glaciers which looked the same as those
deposited at lower elevations
Cycles were apparent
100,000 year cycles divided into 20,000
40,000 year periods
Causes of Climate Change
Milankovitch Cycles
Explain why climate changes
Earth is like a wobbling top following
an elliptical orbit around the sun
Three Cycles
1. 26,000 year
Earth Does not keep its poles at a constant
angle in relation to the sun
Wobble around the pole makes a complete
cycle in 26,000 years
Causes of Climate Change
2. 41,000 years
The tilt of wobble also varies over a period
of 41,000 years
3. 100,000 years
Elliptical orbit around the sun also changes
Sometimes it is a more extreme ellipse;
other times it is closer to a circle and this
occurs over 100,000 years.
Causes of Climate Change
The combination of these lead to
periodic changes in the amount of
sunlight reaching the Earth
Milankovitch showed that these
variations correlated with major glacial
and interglacial periods
Dont account for all climate
variations
Solar Cycles

The Sun Goes Through Cycles

Sometimes hotter, sometimes cooler
Documented by differing amounts of
isotopes trapped in glacial ice
Variability of solar input of energy
explains some of the climatic
variability too
Atmospheric Transparency
Affects Climate and Weather
Transparency of atmosphere to
radiation affects the temp of the
Earth
From the sun coming in
From the Earths surface going out
Dust and aerosols absorb light
Volcanoes, forest fires and farming put
dust into the atmosphere
Chemical and physical comp of
atmosphere can make it warmer or
cooler
The Oceans Effect on Climate
Change
Water has the highest heat capacity
of any compound
Large amount of heat energy is stored
in oceans
Ocean absorbs dissolved CO2
As CO2 increases in atmosphere it also
increases in the oceans
The Oceans Effect on Climate
Change
Climate system driven (in part) by ocean
conveyor belt
A global circulation of ocean waters
If the conveyor was shut down, major changes
in climate would occur
El Nio and Climate
El Nio refers to a specific periodic
variation of Pacific Ocean currents
Under non-El Nio conditions
Trade-winds blow west across the
tropical Pacific
Warm surface water pile up in
Western Pacific
El Nio and Climate
During El Nio years
Trade winds weaken
Western moving current weakens or
reverses
As a result eastern equatorial ocean unusually
warm
High rates of precipitation and flooding in Peru

Changes global atmospheric circulation

Causes changes in weather in regions that
are far removed from tropical Pacific
El Nio and Climate
Surface water temperature rise off
the South American coast inhibits
the upwelling of nutrient-rich cold
water from deeper levels
Upwelling releases carbon dioxide
El Nio events reduce the amount of
oceanic carbon outgassing
Forecasting Climate Change
Two ways to forecast the future:
Empirical and theoretical
Empirical approach is to go back to
the geological idea of
uniformitarianism
The past is the key to the future
Has led to the extensive research on
climates and atmospheric conditions of
the past
Predicting the Future of the
Climate
Problem with Empirical approach
Temperature records are recent and not
widespread
Difficult to extrapolate, interpolate and
estimate
Hadley Meteorological Center in Great
Britain
Reconstructing temp records
Predicting the Future of the
Climate
Computer simulation
General Circulation Models (GCM)
Based around the atmosphere being
divided into rectangular solids
Each a few km high and several km N or
S
For each the flux of energy and matter is

calculated to each adjacent cell

Steady state model - cannot account
for randomness
Potential Rates of Global Climate
Change
Global surface temp has increased
0.2C/ decade in the past 30 years.
Eight warmest years have occurred
since 1997
Continued warming of 0.2C /decade is
projected.
Potential Rates of Global Climate
Change
By 2030
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
will have doubled from pre-Industrial
Revolution concentrations
Average global temperature will have
risen approximately 1 to 2C
Even greater temperature increases at poles
Polar amplification
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Changes in River Flow
Melting of glacial ice & reductions in
snow cover
Rainfall will likely increase, but runoff will be
more rapid than if snow slowly melts
Reservoirs will overflow - more water will

flow to the ocean

Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Rise in Sea Level
Since last ice age, sea level has risen
1ft/century
Global warming could double this
A major warming could increase sea
levels
1. Expansion of liquid water as water warms
2. Melting of ice sheets on land whose waters
then flow into the ocean
About half the people on Earth live on or
near the coast - vulnerable to flooding
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Rise in sea level could:
Threatens island nations
Increase coastal erosion on open
beaches and cause property loss.
Cause landward progression of estuaries
and salt marshes
Lead to lost of coastal wetlands
Threaten ground water supply in coastal
communities
Tuvalu, the worlds smallest nation, may succumb to sea level
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Glaciers and

Antarctic Ice Cap

Far more glaciers
are retreating than
advancing
worldwide
Northern
Hemisphere sea ice
coverage has
declined an average
of 10.7% per decade
since 1970s
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
The central ice cap on Antarctica is
growing
This is consistent w/ prediction of global
climate change models
As Earth warms, more snow falls on
Antarctica
The rate of melting of the Greenland
ice sheet has doubled since 1998
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Changes in Biological Diversity
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) report states that
approximately 220% of species assessed
so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction as global mean temperatures
exceed a warming of 2 to 3C above
preindustrial levels.
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Black guillemots
Birds that nest on Cooper Island, Alaska,
The abundance of this species has
decreased
Recession of sea ice occurred before chicks were
mature enough to survive on their own
Parent birds feed on Arctic cod found under the
sea ice
Distance from feeding grounds to nest must be <30 km
In recent years - 250km to feeding grounds
Lost an important source of food for locals
Potential Effects of Global
Warming
Agricultural Productivity-globally
Likely to increase in some regions and
decline in others
Locations most likely negatively effected
Mid-latitude food production
Lands in the southern part of the N.

Hemisphere
May become more arid & soil moisture
relationships will change
Human Health Effects
Difficult to forecast
Adjusting to Potential Global
Warming
Two types
Adapt
Learn to live with future global climatic
change
Mitigate
Work to reduce emissions of greenhouse
gases
Adjusting to Potential Global
Warming
How can carbon dioxide emissions be
reduced?
Energy planning that relies heavily on
energy conservation and efficiency
Use of alternative energy sources or
natural gas
Use of mass transit
Greater economic incentives to energy-
efficient technology
Higher fuel-economy
Adjusting to Potential Global
Warming
Burning forests to convert land to
agriculture
Accounts for ~20% of anthropogenic emissions
of carbon dioxide
Reduce this by minimizing burning and
protecting the worlds forests
Reforestation
Planting more trees
Increase biospheric sinks for carbon dioxide
Adjusting to Potential Global
Warming
Geologic sequestration of carbon is
another possible mitigation measure
Capture carbon dioxide from power
plants and industrial smokestacks
Compress the gas and change it to a
mixture of both liquid and gas
Inject it deep underground

Have the potential to sequester as much

as 1,000 gigatons of carbon
International Agreements to
Mitigate Global Warming
Two major approaches
1. International agreements in which
each nation agrees to some specific
limit on emissions
2. Carbon trading
Carbon Trading
A nation or nation agrees to a cap of
carbon emissions
Then corporations and other entities are
issued emission permits, allowing a
certain quantity of emissions
These can be traded
Overall nation does not exceed the cap
International Agreements to
Mitigate Global Warming
1988
First international meeting to discuss
limiting greenhouse gases held (Toronto,
Canada)
1992
Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
General blueprint for reduction of global
emissions suggested
US thought it would be to costly and no
legally binding limits set
International Agreements to
Mitigate Global Warming
1997
Legally binding limits discussed in
Kyoto, Japan.
US eventually agreed to cut emissions
to 7% below 1990 levels (leading
scientists recommend cuts 60-80%
below)
Became a formal treaty in 2006