p-Values for

Hypothesis Testing About

With Known
 Hypothesis Testing
(Revisited)

Five Step Procedure

1. Define Opposing Hypotheses.
2. Choose a level of risk ( ) for making the mistake
of concluding something is true when its not.
3. Set up test (Define Rejection Region).
4. Take a random sample.
sample
5. Calculate statistics and draw a conclusion.
 Concept of a p-value
Ignore step 3
Calculate x

p-Value
The probability of getting an x value
at least as far away as the observed x
value, if H0 were true.
true
 Calculating p-Values
A p-value is a probability whose definition
varies depending on the type of test we are
doing (i.e. the form of the alternate hypothesis.)

Alternate Hypothesis p-value

> Area to the right of x
< Area to the left of x
2* Area in the tail
(to the right or left of x )
 p-value For > Tests =
P(Getting a value greater than x When H0 is true)
H0: = 25 Take a random sample
= 4.2, n = 49 and get x 26.23
HA: > 25
4.2
X .6
49
p-value =
P( X 26.23)

p = 1-.9798
.9798 = .0202
25 x 26.23 X
0 2.05 Z
z = (26.23-25)/.6
 p-value For < Tests =
P(Getting a value less than x When H0 is true)
H0: = 27 Take a random sample
= 4.2, n = 49 and get x 26.23
HA: < 27
4.2
X .6
p-value = 49
P( X 26.23)

p = .1003

x 26.23 27 X
-1.28 0 Z
z = (26.23-27)/.6
 p-value For Tests =
P(Getting a value at least as far away as x When H 0 is true)

H0: = 26 Take a random sample

= 4.2, n = 49 and get x 26.23
HA: 26
4.2
p-value = X .6
Area above 26.23 + 49
Area below 25.77 =
2*Area above 26.23 p = 2(.3520)
= .7040
.6480
.3520 .3520
25.77 26 x 26.23 X
.23 below 26 .23 above 26
0 .38 Z
z = (26.23-26)/.6
 P-VALUES AND
Consider HA: > 25
Here we got z = 2.05
Since = .05, z.05 = 1.645 Can Accept HA
Suppose = .01; z.01 = 2.326 Cannot Accept HA
What about = .02? z.02 = 2.054 Cannot Accept HA
What about = .03? z.03 = 1.88 Can Accept HA
There is some value of that is the break-point
between accepting and not accepting HA-- this is the
p-value.
p-value If p , Accept HA
If p > , Do Not Accept HA
LOW p-values are SIGNIFICANT!!
 =AVERAGE(A2:A50)

=(C6-C3)/(C2/SQRT(49))

=1 NORMSDIST(C7)
=AVERAGE(A2:A50)

=(C6-C3)/(C2/SQRT(49))

=NORMSDIST(C7)
 =AVERAGE(A2:A50)

=(C6-C3)/(C2/SQRT(49))

=2*(1-NORMSDIST(C7))

Note: If z were negative, the

p-value would have been:
=2*NORMSDIST(C7)
 REVIEW
p-values measure the strength of the test
lower p-values indicate more strongly that HA is true
p-values
> tests -- Area in upper tail (to the right of x )
< tests -- Area in lower tail (to the left of x )
tests -- twice the area in a tail
If z >0 -- twice the area in the upper tail
If z< 0 -- twice the area in the lower tail