Is there a Beijing

Consensus in Social
Policy?
Economic Crises,
Retrenchments and
Expansions in Chinese
Xiaoye She
University at Albany, SUNY
Welfare State
xshe@Albany.edu

ISA 2017, Baltimore

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 Overview
Background
Objective
Research Design
Findings
Conclusion

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 Background
Return of the State in Structural
Reform and Crisis Management
From fiscal consolidation to fiscal stimulus
From cross the river by groping the
stones to top-level design
From efficiency first to social justice
However slowing growth and persistent
high inequality
Is it the end for Beijing Consensus?

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 Background
Reform, Crises, and Welfare State
The Polanyian double movement
Post-neoliberal reform and return of the
state
A shift in paradigm or crisis-
driven/reactionary?
Institutional coherence and
development
Production regime and welfare state
State capitalism and state-led social
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 Objective
Mapping retrenchment/expansion
during crises periods
Beijing Consensus in social policy?
Institutional coherence?
Building the basis for causal and
comparative analysis
Why consistency/variation across policy
sectors?
Why similarities/differences in crisis
response?
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 Research Design
Time Frame:
B&A Asian Financial Crisis (AFC): 1995-1999
B&A Global Financial Crisis (GFC): 2006-2010
Analytical focus:
Pre-crisis conditions (1995-1996, 2006-2007)
Crisis responses (1997-1998, 2008-2009)
Welfare state transition: before and after

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 Research Design
Financing and service delivery in:
Education
Social security/employment
Health
(Housing)

All experienced dismantling of the

communist system and significant
marketization or quasi-marketization

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 Research Design
Welfare Retrenchment or Expansion:
Political rhetoric and policy discourses
Are changing political rhetoric reflected in
policy discourses in specific policy sectors?
Public perception:
Are perceptions of the public consistent with
the rhetoric?
Policy outputs versus outcomes
Are financing/service delivery outcomes
consistent with the policy outputs?

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 Methodology
Measuring welfare state
retrenchment/expansion
Operationalizati Measurements Data Sources
on
Political E.g. Cost containment, Policy documents,
rhetoric/policy marketization, government reports,
discourse efficiency versus social laws & regulations,
justice, entitlement development plans
versus individual
responsibility
Public perception E.g. Access, Newspaper articles
affordability, and (China Reform Data
equality/inequality and LexisNexis) and
public opinion surveys
Policy outcomes E.g. Spending % share, National statistics
% of national income, collected from NBSC,
service delivery World Bank, World
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performance (access, Health Organization
 Findings
Overview
Crises as opportunities to push pre-crisis
reform agenda but not for radical policy
change
Consistent retrenchment across policy
sectors during AFC
Inconsistencies/variations in expansion
during GFC
State intervention strategic in economic
sphere, but reactionary in social sphere
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 Findings
AFC versus GFC: same prescription,
different solutions
Reducing impact of external turbulences by
boosting domestic demand/consumption
Market-oriented responses: AFC
Financial restructuring, fiscal consolidation, SOE
reform and marketization
State-oriented responses: GFC
Fiscal stimulus ( 4000 billion) focus on
infrastructure
The state advances, the private sector retreats

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 Findings
AFC versus GFC: the changing
rhetoric
Market-oriented responses: AFC
Marketization and individual responsibility
Education and health viewed as
consumption
Employment-based social security (urban
only)
State-oriented responses: GFC
Social justice and public service equalization
Education, health as public service
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Residence-based social security (urban &
 Findings

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Findings
Education:
AFC GFC
Pre-crisis Education Reversal of marketization
conditions industrialization/marketi rhetoric and emphasis on
zation education justice
Crisis Boosting domestic Removal of tuition & fees in
response demand/consumption on urban public schools,
education experiment on free teacher
Expedited privatization education
of public schools and Diversification of education
burgeoning of new funding without increasing
private schools government responsibility
Welfare Retrenchment; declined Inconsistent; spending
state public spending share, growth lagging behind other
transition expanded education social policy areas;
access with declining www.albany.edu/rockefell
contradictory service
 Education

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Education

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Education

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Findings
Healthcare:
AFC GFC
Pre-crisis Marketization in service SARS crisis triggered national
conditions delivery and debate; new rhetoric of
employment-based universal healthcare; new
insurance system residence-based systems
(public sector only) (urban and rural)
Crisis Privatization of less Participatory approach on
response efficient public health healthcare reform;
institutions at healthcare considered as
town/county level state-sponsored public
service rather than market
consumption
Welfare Retrenchment; declined Expansion; growth in
state fiscal expenditure and insurance coverage;
transition increased out-of-pocket www.albany.edu/rockefell
improvements in service
 Health

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Health

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Health

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Health

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Findings
Social security: pension as example
AFC GFC
Pre-crisis Adoption of social Basic public service
conditions pooling equalization; new social
Policy borrowing insurance and social
(Germany/Singapore) + assistance schemes
experimentation
Crisis Expansion of pension Continued expansion of
response coverage beyond state social insurance coverage
sector
Establishment of Social
Security Fund (SSF) after
2000
Welfare Retrenchment; decline Expansionary stance on
state in enrollment numbers social insurance coverage
transition despite rhetorical with www.albany.edu/rockefell
differential growth;
 Social Security

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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Social Security

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Conclusion
Beijing Consensus in social policy: not yet
Consistent retrenchment patterns during AFC
Stronger and proactive intervention in
economic sphere during GFC
Weaker and reactionary intervention in social
sphere during GFC
Rhetorical versus actual expansion
Variations across sectors and target
populations

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Thank you!

Q&A

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Appendix

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 Background
Growth, Crises, and Welfare State:
Where does China fit in?
From typologies to hybridization
Production regime, welfare state and
institutional complementarities
Politics of expansion versus
retrenchment (Pierson 2004)

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 Background
Myth or reality? Return of the state in
social policy in China
The Polanyian double movement
Neoliberalism to social development
Rhetoric versus policy in practice
Crises as testing grounds

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 Objective
Mapping welfare
retrenchment/expansion during
crises periods
Beijing Consensus in social policy?
Greater institutional coherence?
Building the Basis for Causal Analysis
Why difference in crisis response?
Why variations?

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 Objective
Why crises?
Testing grounds for competing theories
Capture snapshots of welfare state in
crisis periods
Identify before-after policy
stability/change
Understand directions/magnitude of
welfare state transition

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 Objective
Establishing the facts: Is there a Beijing
Consensus for Social Policy?
Is China building a coherent welfare state?
Political rhetoric versus policy in practice
Consistency versus variations
Is it indeed a more equitable paradigm for
development?
State versus market: Problem? Solution?
Building the basis for causal analysis:
Why stability/change? Why variations?

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 State Capacity

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 State Capacity

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 State Capacity

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 State Capacity

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Findings

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

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 Findings
Asian Financial Crisis
Pre-crisis conditions: marketization/quasi-
marketization started well before the crisis
Crisis response: largely focused on
financial risk management and
restructuring
Welfare state transition: speeding up of
neoliberal reform in social policy; little
emphasis on social safety net until after
2000

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 Findings
Global Financial Crisis
Pre-crisis conditions: reversal of marketization
rhetoric, greater emphasis on social justice and
state capacity and responsibility
Crisis management: Keynesian and supply-side
response with focus on infrastructure, social
policy included but limited in implementation
Welfare state transition: selective expansion,
variations in financing patterns and service
delivery outcomes

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 Conclusion
Crisis as (missed) opportunities
Conditioned by existing reform agendas
and capacity/willingness of state/non-
state actors
Framing matters: same prescriptions,
different solutions
Reform can fall short at rhetoric level or
apart in implementation
Lagged policy learning based on societal
responses and foreign experience
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 Future Directions
Housing
Variations across policy sectors
Local implementation
Comparative

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