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- 05_fall_exam1_soln
- Bcom Syllabus
- Prob Stats UCB
- ECS315 - Lecture 3
- Session 1 2014 Version
- Chap1&2 Stochastic Modeling Lecture notes
- MBA ZC417.docx
- Monte Carlos Simulation
- unit6_wks1_key.pdf
- Output Spss 1
- Discrete Dist.
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STRUCTURES FOR

COMPUTING(SCS2203)

Sample spaces and events: axioms and

definitions; total and conditional probability;

Bayes rule; independence. Random variables:

continuous and discrete; distributions and density

functions; mean, variance and co-variance-

definitions and properties. Special distributions:

uniforms; Poison, normal-definitions- properties

and examples. Mathematical logic, linear algebra

and graph theory.

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

events

Apply probability properties in solving probability

problems

Identify different types of probability events and use

their properties in solving probability problems.

Interpret probability axioms and use them in problem

solving.

Apply Bayes theorem in solving probability problems.

Compare discrete and continuous random variables.

Apply distributions and density functions, Uniform,

Binomial, Poisson and Normal distribution definitions

and properties in solving problems.

Apply Mathematical Logic.

Interpret linear algebraic expressions.

Probability

Proportion of time that a certain event will

occur if the experiment related to the event is

repeated indefinitely.

Possible outcomes of the repetitive (trials)

experiments eg tossing a coin, counting

number of defective parts in a box etc

likelihood/chance that a certain outcome will

occur when performing some action. Notation,

P(A), where A is an event.

Discrete probability

Deals with events that occur in

countable sample spaces (set of all

possible outcomes of an

event/action)

eg: Throwing dice. What is the

Probability of getting 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Classical definition

Theoretical probability:

The probability of an event to occur is

defined as number of cases favourable for

the event, over the number of total

outcomes possible in an equiprobable

sample space.

P(E) = n(E)/n(U)

Occurrence of an even number when a die

is rolled [3 faces out of the 6 have even

numbers]

Experimental probability

Probability of an event is the

frequency on an event over the total

frequency

P(E) = Freq. of enent/Total freq.

Modern definition

The modern definition starts with a set

called the sample space, which

relates to the set of all possible

outcomes in a classical sense, denoted

by

element , probability value f(x) is

attached, which satisfies the following

properties:

0f(x) 1

Uncertainty

predictions of future events

Measurement of Uncertainty: A

set of possible states or outcomes

where probabilities are assigned to

each possible state or outcome. This

also includes the application of a

probability density function to

continuous variable

subjective and objective

probability

Subjective is derived from

individuals personal judgement

No formal calculations

Reflects opinion and past experience

No mathematical proof

Objective: based on mathematical

analysis and recorded observation

Mathematical calculations involved

Research on Other

approaches to

probability

Logical approach

Frequency approach

Propensity approach

Exercises on simple probability

1. When you roll a 6 sided die, which number are you most

likely to get?

2. If you roll a die 600 times, how many sixes would you

expect to get?

3. Use the following to describe the statements bellow:

certain, very likely, likely, unlikely, very unlikely,

impossible. [Zimbabwean events]

a) It will snow tomorrow

b) It will rain tomorrow

c) The sun will not rise tomorrow

d) Jesus will come next week

e) You will win a car in a competition today

f) You will pass all part one courses at NUST

cont

4. In February 1995 it rained on 18 days. Calculate the probability

that it will rain on a day in February.

5. A six-sided die and a coin are tossed. List all the possible

outcomes.

6. In a class of 30 Computer Science students at NUST, 16 are

ladies, 4 wear glasses and 3 are left handed. A student is

chosen at random from the class. What is the probability that

this student is:

a) A lady

b) Right handed

c) Wearing glasses

7. A card is taken at random from a full pack of playing cards with

no jockers. What is the probability that the card:

a) Is an ace b) is Black c) is a heart d) has an even number

on it

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