Chapter 6

Population Growth
and Economic
Development:
Causes,
Consequences, and
Controversies

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The Basic Issue: Population
Growth and Quality of Life
Six major issues:
Will developing countries be able to improve
levels of living given anticipated population
growth?
How will developing countries deal with the vast
increases in their labor forces?
How will higher population growth rates affect
poverty?

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The Basic Issue: Population
Growth and Quality of Life
Six major issues (contd):
Will developing countries be able to extend the
coverage and improve the quality of health care and
education in the face of rapid population growth?
Is there a relationship between poverty and family
size?
How does affluence in the developed world affect
the ability of developing countries to provide for
their people?

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A Review of the Numbers: Population
GrowthPast, Present, and Future

World population growth through history

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Table 6.1

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Figure 6.1a

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Figure 6.1b

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Table 6.2

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A Review of the Numbers: Population
GrowthPast, Present, and Future

A brief history of human population growth

Structure of the worlds population
Geographic region

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Figure 6.2

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Table 6.3

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Figure 6.3

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A Review of the Numbers: Population
GrowthPast, Present, and Future

A brief history of human population growth

Structure of the worlds population
Geographic region
Fertility and mortality trends

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Figure 6.4

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Table 6.4

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Table 6.5

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A Review of the Numbers: Population
GrowthPast, Present, and Future

A brief history of human population growth

Structure of the worlds population
Geographic region
Fertility and mortality trends
Age structure and dependency burdens

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A Review of the Numbers: Population
GrowthPast, Present, and Future

A brief history of human population growth

Structure of the worlds population
The hidden momentum of population growth

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Figure 6.5

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Figure 6.6

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The Demographic Transition

Stage I: High birthrates and death rates

Stage II: Continued high birthrates,
declining death rates
Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates,
eventually stabilizing

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Figure 6.7

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Figure 6.8

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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries: The Malthusian Model

The Malthusian population trap

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Figure 6.9

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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries: The Malthusian Model

The Malthusian population trap

Criticisms of the Malthusian model

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Figure 6.10

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 Figure 6.11

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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries: The Household Model

The microeconomic household theory of

fertility

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Demand for Children Equation

Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x 1,..., n

Where
Cd is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
Pc is the net price of children
Px is price of all other goods
tx is the tastes for goods relative to children

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Demand for Children Equation

Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x 1,..., n

Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:
Cd Cd
0 0
Y Px

Cd Cd
0 0
Pc tx

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 Figure 6.12

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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries: The Household Model

The microeconomic household theory of

fertility
The demand for children in developing
countries
Some empirical evidence
Implications for development and fertility

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The Consequences of High Fertility:
Some Conflicting Opinions

Population growth isnt a real problem

Overpopulation is a deliberately contrived false
issue
Population growth is a desirable phenomenon
Population growth is a real problem
The empirical argument: the negative
consequences of population growth

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Goals and Objectives:
Toward a Consensus
Despite the conflicting opinions, there is
some common ground

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Some Policy Approaches

What can developing countries do?

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 Table 6.6

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Some Policy Approaches

What developing countries can do

What the developed countries can do:
resources, population, and the global
environment
How developed countries can assist
developing countries

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Concepts for Review

Birthrate Fertility
Death rate Hidden momentum of
Demographic transition population growth
Doubling time Infant mortality rate
Empowerment of Life expectancy at birth
women Malthusian population
Family-planning trap
programs

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Concepts for Review (contd)
Microeconomic theory of
fertility
Mortality
Natural increase
Net international
migration
Population-poverty cycle
Population pyramid
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Positive checks
Preventative checks
Rate of population
increase
Reproductive choice
Total fertility rate
Youth dependency
ratio
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