Climate change in the

subtropics:
The impacts of
projected averages and
variability on banana
productivity
J. Ramirez, D. Turner, I. Van den Bergh, C.
Staver, D. Brown and A. Jarvis

ESRI User Conference July, 2011

Introduction
Bananas are of tropical origin when grown in
subtropics, they are subject to strong
environmental constraints, mainly low temperature
but also drought
Temperature and rainfall are expected to change at
unprecedented rate in coming decades (IPCC,
2007) potentially huge impact on banana
production, both in tropical and subtropical regions
Review of the impacts of climate change on Musa
(Ramirez et al. 2010) suggests that future climates
will be less suitable in >70% of global land areas
(mainly tropical areas), but there could be gains
towards subtropics
Introduction
But more profound analysis is required:
Subtropical production of bananas is highly diverse
activity
Varieties used in the subtropics are likely to be adapted to
different conditions of annual variability in climates than
tropical varieties
Some impacts and responses are largely site specific and
thus so are the adaptation measures
A calibrated approach only for subtropical production of
bananas is required
Our objective was to estimate the effect of
expected climate changes on banana
production in the subtropics
Methodology
Five-stage analysis:
1. Identification of current banana areas by
means of expert consultation
2. Calibration of a model and modeling of the
suitability of current banana production areas
3. Modeling of expected suitability (i.e. 2020s,
2050s) and changes in suitability of subtropical
banana production areas
4. Analysis of changes in yearly seasonality
5. Identification of homoclimes for potential
technology transfer options
Identification of current banana
areas by means of expert
consultation
Steps:

Send the country map to a expert on that

country
Expert marks over the map banana
production areas
Expert send back the map to us and we
digitize the map
Identification of current banana
areas by means of expert
consultation
Methodology
Current climate data derived from WorldClim
(Hijmans et al. 2005, http://www.worldclim.org)
Climate surfaces for monthly maximum, minimum,
mean temperatures and total monthly precipitation
used to characterize the locations where banana
production was identified by experts and to model
the suitability of these locations for bananas
Future projections of global climate data obtained
at original Global Climate Model resolution from the
Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, phase 3
web data portal, under Earth System Grid online
platform (https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/index.jsp)
Methodology
EcoCrop model: uses mean and min/max monthly temperature
and monthly precipitation data to evaluate the suitability of a
location for a crop
Model calibration for subtropical banana:
Growing season duration Gs = 365 days
Monthly min temperature below which crop dies Tkill = 0C
Monthly min temperature below which crop stops growing Tmin = 12C
Monthly max temperature above which crop stops growing Tmax = 33C
Optimum growth between Topmin = 17.5C and Topmax = 26.3C
Rainfed crop fails due to drought below Rmin = 200 mm/year
Crop fails due to waterlogging above Rmax = 4,000 mm/year
Optimum growth between 900 and 1,760 mm/year and good drainage
Definition of suitability ranges:
Beyond absolute thresholds (Tmin, Tmax, Rmin, Rmax): suitability 0%
Between absolute and optimum thresholds: suitability 1-99% (linear)
Within optimum conditions: suitability 100%
Calculations for precipitation and temperature done separately; their
product is final suitability score
Results: Current suitability +
limiting factor
Results: 2020s suitability +
change
Results: 2050s suitability +
change
Results: Homoclims
Northern India

Southern Brazil
Discussion and
conclusions
Current banana production in subtropics
challenged mainly by low temperature and
drought

In future, temperature expected to increase

in all subtropical areas investigated, while
changes in rainfall patterns vary
Discussion and
conclusions
Adaptive strategies for subtropical banana production will
need to focus on drought adaptation, while maintaining
attention for below-optimal temperature:
Change in crop management and technology transfer to
vulnerable areas: Improved irrigation technology, targeted
planting dates and water application to reduce water demands
and exposure to low temperatures and for key market periods,
soil/water management to increase water capture and holding
capacity

Change in cultivars: Substitution of cultivars with greater

tolerance to drought and temperature extremes
Discussion and
conclusions
Genetic improvement: Centre of origin of Musa is SE Asia where
climatic conditions are highly variable, but domestication
occurred in humid and/or sub-humid climates Musa genepool
has only been barely exploited for traits related to abiotic stress.
Some wild species are known to hold useful traits, including
tolerance to cold (M. sikkimensis, M. basjoo, M. thomsonii) and
drought (M. balbisiana, M. nagensium)

Expansion of area: Based on increasing minimum temperatures,

and in those areas where rainfall or maximum temperatures are
not (or do not become) limiting
Thank you