Forecasting Technological Change

Session 5: Closing
Paul A. Schumann, Jr.
Glocal Vantage, Inc.

05/23/17 1
 Sessions
Introduction
Trend Analysis Techniques
Expert Opinion Techniques
Integrative Techniques
Closing

05/23/17 2
 5. Closing

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast
Process
Internal Considerations
External Considerations
Guidelines
Conclusions
05/23/17 3
 5. Closing

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast
Process
Internal Considerations
External Considerations
Guidelines
Conclusions
05/23/17 4
 History
Driven by military and national science policy
needs (> 50 years old)
1940s - 1970s: Both quantitative and
qualitative methods were developed and
refined
1970s - 1990s: Decline in general acceptance
of technology forecasting primarily due to
changing social and institutional perceptions
and needs
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 History (cont.)
1990s - 2000s: Resurgence in new forms,
integrated in new ways to meet specific
needs
Technology assessment
National technology foresight
Roadmapping
Competitive technological intelligence

05/23/17 6
 Importance of Forecasting Technological
Change

Our society is completely reliant on technologyto

drive the economy, to maintain and improve
standards of living, and to protect Earth against the
pressures of population and urban living. Nations are
irretrievably enmeshed in a global economy fueled by
innovation and competition. Therefore technology is
an increasingly important and challenging target for
analyses to aid decision-makers.
Source: Coates, et al

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 Future of Technology Foresight

Technological innovation rather than invention

Economic, not military or political competition
More dependence on science
Sociopolitical conditions favor re-emergence
of both technology forecasting and
technology assessment
Technology forecasting toolkit is expanding

Source: Coates, et al
05/23/17 8
 Future (cont.)
Technology forecasting is becoming much
more integrated with company functions and
policy development
Customers for and practitioners of technology
forecasting are becoming more diverse

05/23/17 9
 Technological Innovation
Technological innovation has two
components - invention and market
exploitation
It is the result of the confluence of a new
technical idea with a market opportunity
Traditional technology forecasting
focused on technical idea
Focus now is on both
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 New Methods
Scenario management
TRIZ
Multiple perspectives
Co-evolution
Scientometrics
Bibliometric analysis &
data mining
Complexity science
Crisis management

05/23/17 11
 New Methods
Scenario management Elaboration & improvement
TRIZ of scenarios
Multiple perspectives Computerized process to
Co-evolution generate conflict free
scenarios
Scientometrics
Well suited for
Bibliometric analysis & entrepreneurial business
data mining decisions
Complexity science Decision field assessment
Crisis management (60 to 150 influence
factors)
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 New Methods
Scenario management Laws of technological
TRIZ system evolution deduced
Multiple perspectives from analysis of hundreds
of patents
Co-evolution
Systematic exploration of
Scientometrics technologies
Bibliometric analysis & Identification of many paths
data mining of technological evolution
Complexity science Similar to morphological
Crisis management analysis

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 New Methods
Scenario management Based on political science
TRIZ and systems analysis
Multiple perspectives Incorporates multiple
Co-evolution perspectives - technical,
organizational, personal
Scientometrics
Each perspective uses
Bibliometric analysis &
data mining distinct paradigms and
provides insights not
Complexity science
available with the others
Crisis management Synthesis provides insight

05/23/17 14
 New Methods
Scenario management Based on co-evolution
TRIZ of technology &
Multiple perspectives continually adaptive
Co-evolution private/public
organizational networks
Scientometrics
As technology evolves
Bibliometric analysis & so do the organizational
data mining arrangements to use it
Complexity science & manage it
Crisis management

05/23/17 15
 New Methods
Scenario management Studies of the structure
TRIZ and evolution of science
Multiple perspectives Challenge is to forecast
Co-evolution when when specific
areas of science can be
Scientometrics
exploited commercially
Bibliometric analysis &
data mining
Complexity science
Crisis management

05/23/17 16
 New Methods
Scenario management Many new tools
TRIZ (software)
Multiple perspectives Bibliometrics
Text mining
Co-evolution
Knowledge Discovery
Scientometrics
Has potential for
Bibliometric analysis & identification of possible
data mining new innovations and
Complexity science advancement in science
Crisis management

05/23/17 17
 New Methods
Scenario management Application to analysis
TRIZ and simulation of
Multiple perspectives complex sociotechnical
systems
Co-evolution
Nonlinear adaptive
Scientometrics
systems
Bibliometric analysis & Stable
data mining Oscillating stably
Complexity science Chaotic with predictable
Crisis management boundaries
Diverging unstably

05/23/17 18
 New Methods
Scenario management Multidisciplinary work
TRIZ on decision making
Multiple perspectives Inherent limitations to
Co-evolution forecasting
Scientometrics Regions of uncertainty
seem to be growing
Bibliometric analysis &
data mining Guidance through
Complexity science turbulence
Crisis management

05/23/17 19
 Who Should Forecast?
Everyone engaging in the technology delivery system
ought to have a sense of what constitutes valid technology
foresight and appreciate what it can do for them. Every
scientist working toward eventual innovation, each design
engineer, production manager, product developer,
technology marketing professional, and so forth should get
informed on where the related technologies are likely to be
heading. This information will pay off in avoiding dead-end
initiatives and deadly surprises, and seizing technological
opportunities in a competitive marketplace.

05/23/17 Source: Coates, et al 20

 5. Closing

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast
Process
Internal Considerations
External Considerations
Guidelines
Conclusions
05/23/17 21
 TF Process
Planning Implementation
Decision/Question

Qualitative
Output Quantitative
Time
Probability
Projective
Normative
Techniques
Assumptions
Data
Inputs Insight
Judgement
05/23/17 22
 Types of Forecasts
What are
possible
futures?
Future 2 Can we find a
rma t i ve
No path to get to
those futures?
Today
What is the
trend?
What may
Projec
t ive affect the
Future 1 trend?
What are the
potential
futures?
05/23/17 23
 Applications
Projections of rates of technology
substitution
R&D management
Value of new technology
Identifications of opportunities & threats
Identification of emerging technologies
Competitive technological intelligence
05/23/17 24
 Applications (cont.)
Strategic market analysis
Technology roadmapping
Innovation management
Technology assessment
Technology foresight
Science & technology policy

05/23/17 25
 Output
The technology being forecast
(qualitative)
The characteristics of the technology
(quantitative)
Timing of the forecast
Probability of the forecast

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 Input
Assumptions
Insight
Data
Judgement

05/23/17 27
 Internal Considerations
What question needs to answered, or what decision
needs to be made?
What is the time frame?
How much time?
One time or continuous?
Budget?
Internal data or expertise?
Expectations?
Organizational culture?

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 External Considerations
Stage of technology development
Availability of data
Availability and accessibility of experts
Similarity to other technology
Complexity

05/23/17 29
 A Market
Present
Potential
Possible
Customers Scientific
Demographic

Economic

Competition Technology

Direct Sociopolitical
Embedded
Indirect Supportive
Structural Enabling

05/23/17 30
 Four Causes of Reality
Material
Formal
Productive
Final

05/23/17 31
 Four Causes of Reality
Material Surveillance
techniques
Formal Scanning
Productive Monitoring
Tracking
Final

05/23/17 32
 Four Causes of Reality
Material Trend analysis
Analogy
Formal Precursor
developments
Productive
Trend extrapolation
Final Limit curve
Substitution analysis
Multiple substitution
analysis

05/23/17 33
 Four Causes of Reality
Material Expert opinion
techniques
Formal Interviews
Productive Surveys
Groups
Final

05/23/17 34
 Four Causes of Reality
Material Integrative techniques
Scenarios
Formal SWOT
Productive Opportunity/Threat
analysis
Final Cross impact analysis
Innovation map
Mathematical models
Road Map
05/23/17 35
 Guidelines
Build the complete reality
Provide actionable results
Employ a mix of normative and projective
techniques
Balance rational and intuitive approaches
Integrate the perspectives of personality types
Be cognizant of boundaries and holes
Create a hologram not a mosaic
05/23/17 36
 Temperaments & Views of the Future

Guardians Rationals
Fatalistic Solipsistic
Stoic Pragmatic
Past
Pessimistic Skeptical
Present
Future
Idealists Artisans
Mystical Cynical
Meaning Hedonistic
Credulous Optimistic

Source: Keirsey (www.keirsey.com)

05/23/17 37
 5. Closing

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast
Internal Considerations
External Considerations
Guidelines
Conclusions

05/23/17 38
 Conclusions
Technology is increasingly intertwined
with societal, business and economic
progress
The ability to have technological
foresight is valuable
The methodologies of technology
forecasting have a long history of
success and failures
05/23/17 39
 Conclusions (cont.)
More integrative approaches,
development of novel methods and
increased awareness of the
complexities of technology forecasting
are leading to a resurgence and
reintegration of technology forecasting
into business and government

05/23/17 40
 References
Principles of Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, ed., The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania, 2002
Innovate!, Paul Schumann, Donna Prestwood, Alvin Tong and John Vanston,
McGraw-Hill, 1994
Forecasting and Management of Technology, Alan Porter, A. Thomas Roper,
Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini and Jerry Banks, Wiley Series in Engineering
and Technology Management, 1991
A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis
Methods, Steven Millet & Edward Honton, Battelle Press, 1991
Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management,
John Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc., 1987
Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, Joseph Martino, North-
Holland, 1983
Practical Technology Forecasting, James Bright, Technology Futures, 1978

05/23/17 41
 Glocal Vantage, Inc.
PO Box 161475
Austin, TX 78716
(512) 632-6586
paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com
www.glocalvantage.com
http://incollaboration.com
Twitter: innovant2003
Glocal Vantage, Inc. 42
 Paul Schumann
Futurist and innovation consultant
Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic
intelligence systems
Web 2.0 tools & technologies
Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes
Broad perspectives on the future
Services
Strategic market research & technology forecasting
Intelligence systems consulting
Seminars, webinars & presentations
Glocal Vantage, Inc. 43
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