North Penn School District

Enrollment Projections
School Board of Directors
June 6, 2017

Prepared by the Montgomery County Planning Commission

 North Penn SD Enrollment Trends
Enrollment in the North Penn School District over the next 10
years will depend upon:
Recent and future births

Demographic change

Moves in and out of the school district

New housing construction

Nonpublic Schools, Charter and Cyber Charter Schools, and
Homeschooling options

The Cohort Progression Method accounts for recent trends under

these factors

2
2
Part 1
School District Characteristics

3
 North Penn SD Population Trends
120,000

100,000
The NPSD area grew by Upper Gwynedd
80,000
5.8% in the 00 decade Towamencin

after exceeding 20% in 60,000 North Wales

Montgomery
previous decades.
40,000 Lansdale
Growth to 2020 Hatfield Town.
continues the trend from 20,000
Hatfield Bor.
last decade with 5.3% -
growth expected. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(projected)

School age children declined over the

2000 2010 2000-2010
Age Cohort Total Total Change last decade as did district enrollment
0-4 6,378 5,722 -656 in years between 2000 and 2010.
5-17 16,964 16,043 -921 The population most likely to give
birth also declined.
25-34 13,038 12,041 -997

4
 Birth Activity
Birth activity has been subject to a gradual decline over the last fifteen years
in the NPSD, with a modest comeback recently, which is similar to the pattern
of declining births in most districts and the county as a whole
Births are directly related to future elementary school students, but other
factors can disrupt that relationship, i.e. independent school, moving
The effects of changes in birth trends are far removed (6+ years)

NPSD Birth Totals by School Year

1,600
Countywide Birth Totals
1,400
9,800
1,200
9,600
1,000 9,400
800 9,200
9,000
600 8,800
400 8,600
8,400
200
8,200
0

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: PA Department of Health

5
5
 Child-Bearing Aged Females
Countywide, Females Age 25-34 are rising and they are projected to
peak by 2025. This growth corresponds to the Millennial
Generation. 60,000
58,000
56,000
54,000
52,000
50,000
48,000
46,000
44,000
42,000
40,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Source: DVRPC

2000 2010
In the NPSD, Females Age 25-29 and 30-34
Age Cohort Females Females decreased by a net of 605 from 2000 to
15 19 2,614 2,828 2010
20 - 24 2,058 2,459
25 - 29 2,972 2,931 The younger age cohorts increased,
30 - 34 3,713 3,149
35 - 39 4,352 3,315
although these younger ages are much
40 -44 4,217 3,601 more fluid in their movement in and out
Source: U.S. Census Bureau of the district.
6
6
 School District Enrollment
12,900

12,850

12,800

12,750

12,700

12,650

12,600

12,550
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

The last ten years of enrollment in the NPSD reflect the end of the
declining period and subsequent trend of increasing enrollment.

7
7
 School District Enrollment by Grade Levels
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000 K-6
4,500
7-9
4,000
10-12
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016-
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

When broken down by grade distributions, enrollment growth in the

NPSD has been fueled at the elementary school level over the last 3 years,
while middle school totals have declined, and high school has fluctuated.
Some cycling is expected looking forward.
8
8
 Other School Enrollment
Nonpublic school enrollment has generally trended downward in the
county since the recession, but reasons may not be solely economic.
Two data sources appear to confirm the decline in nonpublic school
students living the NPSD, although neither data source is perfect.
Census Data NPSD Bus Data
Private School Percent Private Nonpublic School
Year Students Students in NPSD Dataset School Year Students
Census 2000, 2011-12 3,078
2000 3,609 21.2% Summary File 3
2012-13 2,669
ACS, 5 Year Estimates,
2010* 3,279 20.7% 2006-2010 2013-14 2,385
ACS, 5 Year Estimates, 2014-15 2,364
2015* 2,919 18.7% 2011-2015 2015-16 2,581
* 5 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 5 years worth
of sampling data
2016-17 2,680
Source: North Penn School District Bus Records

Homeschool and charter and cyber charter school options have held at
a fairly consistent level and have a lesser impact on public school
enrollment.
9
9
Part 2
Housing Activity

10
 Impact of Housing Types on School-Age
Children
MCPC conducted a study on the characteristics of the population in different
housing types, which included the presence of school-age children
North Penn SD has factors for existing housing types that are very similar to
countywide results.

Montgomery County
Single-Family Single-Family
Detached Attached Multifamily
School Aged Children per Household in
Existing Units 0.55 0.41 0.18
School Aged Children per Household in
New Units 0.93 0.21 0.06
Source: MCPC, using 2010 Census data

North Penn School District

Single-Family Single-Family
Detached Attached Multifamily
School Aged Children per Household in
Existing Units 0.58 0.41 0.16
School Aged Children per Household in
New Units 0.84* 0.08* 0.11*

* Based on limited sample size. 11

11
 Impact of Existing Multifamily
Developments on Public School Enrollment
MCPC analyzed the number of students coming from all multifamily
developments with over 20 units in the North Penn School District.
Multifamily developments are increasing in their student/unit ratio in
many districts

All Multifamily (20+ Units) Multifamily Built After 2000 (20+ Units)
North Penn Student / North Penn Student /
School Year SD Students Total Units Unit School Year SD Students Total Units Unit
2009-10 777 5,350 0.145 2009-10 52 650 0.080
2012-13 897 5,350 0.168 2012-13 57 650 0.088
2015-16 1,114 5,350 0.208 2015-16 66 650 0.102
2016-17 1,178 5,350 0.220 2016-17 69 650 0.106

Address-only rosters were used for this analysis

12
12
 Housing Construction Units Built, 2007-2016
500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Multifamily

Over the last 5 years, an average of units per year were built if you exclude
the Age Restricted Developments.
This translates to an average of 46 additional school-age children per year
a baseline for determining impact of future development
13
13
 Housing Construction, 2012-2016
LI
M
EK
BETHLEHEM COUNTY LINE IL

UPPER STATE
DOYLESTOWN
N

RICHARDSON
TREWIGTOWN
BE
TH

UNIONVILLE
L EH

ORVILLA
TOWNSHIP LINE

EM

BERGEY

LOWER STATE
STUMP
n
HATFIELD TWP

UNION

TAYLOR
PENN
n
HORSHAM

BROAD
COWPATH MAIN
n

RT202
COWPATH
MONTGOMERY

MOYER
n
DERSTINE

KOFFEL

DEKALB
BE

LANSDALE LINE
TH
L EH
ORVILLA 8TH KNAPP EM
7TH
n

CANNON
AL

BROAD
n
LE
NT

NORTH WALES
WOOD
O

WELSH MAIN WELSH

W

WELSH
N
Z T
FRE

n n
LANSDALE HANCOCK
n

DEKALB
WHITES

n SFD MF
FORTY FOOT

VALLEY FORGE

SFA MH

CHURC
TROXEL

WN
E YTO

BROAD
SUMN

BEAVER
n Bridle Path ES

WALNUT
MAINLAND SUMNEYTOWN Gwyn-Nor ES
UPPER GWYNEDD
TOWAMENCIN Gwynedd Square ES
n Hatfield ES

NORTH WALES
BUSTARD

WEST POIN T
Inglewood ES
OLD FORTY FOOT

GARFIELD
n Knapp ES
VALLEY FORGE

Kulp ES
Montgomery ES
MORRIS
Nash ES
North Wales ES

Oak Park ES
Walton Farm ES
York AV ES

14
 Impact of Potential Housing Development
The table below shows the most likely new developments on the horizon
Other sites and properties may be in play, but are less certain at this time
If all developments were built as indicated, an additional 121 public school
students would be generated
The timelines are best estimates
Public School Factor for
Total Built by School Children School Age
Development Type Units Years Notes Impact Children
Walnut Creek SFA 184 20172019 Under construction. 31 .21
Belmont Estates SFD 23 2017, 2018 Under construction. 17 .93
Walnut Street Subdivision SFD 10 2021 Plan awaiting approvals. 8 .93
Fortuna Station SFA 59 2018, 2019 Under construction. 10 .21
Nearing completion of construction, last 27 units
Thorndale Development SFA 126 2017 delivered by 2017 school year. 5 .2.21
Station Place SFA 10 2020 Plan awaiting approvals. 2
Penn Square SFA 40 2018, 2019 Approved and awaiting construction to begin. 7 .21
Madison Lot Project MF 175 20192021 Approved and awaiting construction. 9 .06
Andale Green SFA 172 20172020 Under construction in phases. 29 .21.21
Cottage Avenue SFA 22 2018, 2019 Conditional use approved, awaiting developer plans. 4 .21

Other Future Possibilities

Hatfield Potential SFD 200+ Up to 200+ units possible across a few sites.
Newbury Phase II SFA 22 Working on final plans, but currently stalled.
Martin Property SFD 20+ Still in conceptual planning stage.
Walnut Street Apartments MF 120 Plans still evolving.

15
15
 Potential Housing Development
Walnut Creek
Fortuna Station 184 SFA approved and in construction. LI
M
59 SFA under construction.
LINE
EK
BETHLEHEM COUNTY IL

UPPER STATE
Hatfield Potential

DOYLESTOWN
N

RICHARDSON
The township has a number

TREWIGTOWN
BE
of properties in play that Walnut Street Subdivision TH

UNIONVILLE
L EH

ORVILLA
could result in 200+ units in
TOWNSHIP LINE

10 SFD waiting for approvals. EM

BERGEY
BE

LOWER STATE
the future. TH

STUMP
L EH
E M

HATFIELD TWP

UNION

TAYLOR
PENN
Belmont Estates
23 SFD nearing completion. HORSHAM Andale Green

BROAD
COWPATH MAIN

RT202
COWPATH 172 SFA under construction.
MONTGOMERY

MOYER
DERSTINE

Newbury Phase II
KOFFEL

DEKALB
20 SFD currently stalled and

LANSDALE LINE
Penn Square
40 SFA approved and awaiting working on revisions to plan.
ORVILLA 8TH KNAPP
construction 7TH

CANNON
AL

BROAD
LE
NT

NORTH WALES
WOOD
O

WELSH MAIN WELSH

W

WELSH
N
Z T
FRE

Thorndale LANSDALE Station Place

HANCOCK
10 SFA waiting for necessary approvals.

DEKALB
126 SFA nearing completion. WHITES
FORTY FOOT

VALLEY FORGE

CHURC
TROXEL

WN
E YTO

BROAD
Madison Lot Project SUMN

BEAVER
175 MF approved and awaiting

WALNUT
construction. Bridle Path ES
MAINLAND SUMNEYTOWN
UPPER GWYNEDD Gwyn-Nor ES
TOWAMENCIN
Gwynedd Square ES

NORTH WALES
BUSTARD

Hatfield ES

WEST POIN T
OLD FORTY FOOT

Martin Property Inglewood ES

GARFIELD
VALLEY FORGE

Potential for 20+ SFD units.

Knapp ES
Kulp ES
Walnut Street Apartments
MORRIS that is
120 unit MF development Montgomery ES
still evolving while going through Nash ES
pre-development process. North Wales ES

Cottage Avenue Oak Park ES
22 SFA conditional use Walton Farm ES
approved and awaiting final York AV ES
plans.

16
 The Impact of Existing Housing Sales in NPSD
2500

2000 Year of Housing Units

Sold 2012 2014 2016
1500
Number of Existing Units
Sold 959 1048 1186
Incoming Students at
1000
Address of Units Sold 194 193 227
Outgoing Students at
500 169 170 181
Address of Units Sold
Net Change in Students
0 from Sales Activity +25 +23 +46
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission

The last four years of data show a slow increase in housing sales after a period of
variability in sales. The sales from 2012, 2014, 2016 all brought in more children
than left the district.
If sales increase, an increase in students is expected from that activity the churning
of households.
New households also have a high likelihood of adults age 25-34

17
17
 Existing Housing Sales, 2012-2016 LI
M
EK
BETHLEHEM COUNTY LINE IL

UPPER STATE
DOYLESTOWN
N

RICHARDSON
TREWIGTOWN
BE
TH

UNIONVILLE
L EH

ORVILLA
TOWNSHIP LINE

EM

BERGEY
BE

LOWER STATE
TH

STUMP
L EH
EM

HATFIELD TWP

UNION

TAYLOR
PENN

HORS HAM

BROAD
COWPATH MAIN

RT202
COWPATH
MONTGOMERY

MOYER
DERSTINE

KOFFEL

DEKALB
LANSDALE LINE
8TH KNAPP
ORVILLA
7TH

CANNON
AL

BROAD
LE
NT

NORTH WALES
WOOD
O

WELSH MAIN WELSH

W

WELSH
N
Z T
FRE

LANSDALE HANCOCK

DEKALB
WHITES
FORTY FOOT

VALLEY FORGE

CHURC
TROXEL

WN
E YTO

BROAD
SUMN

BEAVER
SalesES

WALNUT
Bridle Path ES
MAINLAND SUMNEYTOWN
UPPER GWYNEDD Gwyn-Nor ES
TOWAMENCIN
Gwynedd Square ES

NORTH WALES
BUSTARD

Hatfield ES

WEST POIN T
OLD FORTY FOOT

GARFIELD Inglewood ES
VALLEY FORGE

Knapp ES
Kulp ES
MORRIS Montgomery ES
Nash ES
North Wales ES

Oak Park ES
Walton Farm ES
York AV ES

18
Part 3
District Enrollment Projections

19
 What is the Cohort Progression Model?

Grade Transition B-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12

5 year avg. 0.735 1.168 1.003 1.005 1.012 1.005 1.008 1.015 1.003 1.005 1.030 0.964 1.048

PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
GRADE
YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS
2015-16 1,041 765 944 945 1,015 1,007 1,020 1,016 1,053 952 929 1,044 1,040 1,028 12,757
2016-17 1,063 781 894 947 949 1,026 1,011 1,028 1,032 1,056 957 956 1,006 1,090 12,734
2017-18 1,132 832 913 897 951 960 1,031 1,020 1,044 1,035 1,061 985 922 1,055 12,705
2018-19 1,083 796 972 916 901 962 965 1,040 1,035 1,047 1,040 1,093 949 966 12,682
2019-20 1,097 806 930 975 920 911 967 973 1,056 1,038 1,052 1,071 1,053 995 12,747
2020-21 1,097 806 942 933 980 931 916 975 987 1,059 1,043 1,083 1,032 1,104 12,791
2021-22 1,097 806 942 945 937 991 935 923 990 990 1,064 1,074 1,044 1,082 12,724
2022-23 1,097 806 942 945 949 948 996 943 937 993 995 1,096 1,036 1,094 12,680
2023-24 1,097 806 942 945 949 960 953 1,004 957 940 998 1,025 1,056 1,085 12,621
2024-25 1,097 806 942 945 949 960 965 960 1,019 960 945 1,027 988 1,107 12,574

20
20
 Grade Progression Rates NPSD
School Year Birth-K* K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12
2012-13 0.740 1.177 1.002 0.989 1.007 1.003 0.999 1.005 0.994 0.997 1.022 0.952 1.060
2013-14 0.737 1.165 0.994 1.018 0.991 1.004 1.013 1.030 1.005 1.015 1.040 0.957 1.042
2014-15 0.749 1.184 1.016 1.010 1.031 1.003 0.991 1.005 0.993 0.995 1.021 0.950 1.048
2015-16 0.724 1.182 0.986 0.999 1.015 1.002 1.007 1.028 1.012 1.006 1.039 0.972 1.034
2016-17 0.726 1.134 1.017 1.006 1.014 1.011 1.030 1.007 1.010 1.012 1.028 0.989 1.055

5 Year Average 0.735 1.168 1.003 1.005 1.012 1.005 1.008 1.015 1.003 1.005 1.030 0.964 1.048

On average in NPSD, all classes except for the 10th grade add students from one
grade to the next signified by a progression rate above 1.0
The Birth Kindergarten ratio is different than other transitions, and more volatile.
It connects births from 6 years prior to the kindergarten class they impact
These rates reflect the trends that have been discussed in this study

21
21
 Enrollment Projection Model
Primary (next 5 years) and Secondary (6-10 years away) Periods
3 scenarios have been prepared based on alternative futures
depending on housing and birth rates.

Option 1 Base Future Birth Estimate

Progression rate averages are based on five years
Future births are estimated as an average of the last six years

Option 2 Higher Future Birth Estimate

Maintains the same progression rates as Option One
Increase in Estimated BirthsBirths affecting the enrollment size of classes beginning in
2021-22 could progressively increase beginning with the 2015-16 birth estimates

Option 3 Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housing Adjustment for

Likely Development
Maintains the same progression rates and higher future birth estimate used in Option Two
Accounts for increase in expected housing construction with an adjustment that recognizes
impact beyond trend development level
** Recommended Scenario **
22
22
 Scenario Comparisons, All Grades K-12
Option 3Housing
Option 1Base Option 2 Higher Adjustment with
Year Future Births Future Births Higher Future Births
2016-17 (Current) 12,870 12,870 12,870
5 Yr. Change from
2016-17 to 2021-22 -123 -117 -81
5 Yr. Change from
2021-22 to 2026-27 -173 115 150

2026-27 (Projected) 12,574 12,868 12,939

10 Yr. Change Since
2016-17 -296 -2 69

Option 1 - Without any adjustments to the model, trends show that the
District is expected to decline in both the primary and secondary periods.
Option 2 Increased birth activity results in student gains during the
secondary period, but resulting in no net change overall.
Option 3 The primary period decline lessens with new housing
construction and births and new development account for a larger gain in
the secondary period. 23
23
 Public School Enrollment Projections, District
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3Higher Option 3
Base Future Higher Future Future Births w/ Annual
Year Births Births Housing Adjustment Change
2016-17
(Current) 12,870 12,870 12,870
2017-18 12,757 12,757 12,770 -100
2018-19 12,734 12,734 12,767 -3
2019-20 12,705 12,705 12,753 -14
2020-21 12,682 12,682 12,724 -29
2021-22 12,747 12,753 12,789 65
5 Yr. Change
from 2016-17
to 2021-22 -123 -117 -81
2022-23 12,791 12,818 12,861 72
2023-24 12,724 12,790 12,840 -21
2024-25 12,680 12,804 12,861 21
2025-26 12,621 12,820 12,884 23
2026-27 12,574 12,868 12,939 55
5 Yr. Change
from 2021-22
to 2026-27 -173 115 150
10 Yr. Change
Since 2016-17 -296 -2 69
24
24
 Elementary School Summary, Grades K-6
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3Higher Option 3
Base Future Higher Future Future Births w/ Annual
Year Births Births Housing Adjustment Change
2016-17
(Current) 6,815 6,815 6,815
2017-18 6,711 6,711 6,718 -97
2018-19 6,638 6,638 6,655 -63
2019-20 6,604 6,604 6,630 -25
2020-21 6,552 6,552 6,574 -56
2021-22 6,483 6,488 6,507 -67
5 Yr. Change
from 2016-17
to 2021-22 -332 -327 -308
2022-23 6,482 6,509 6,532 25
2023-24 6,480 6,546 6,573 41
2024-25 6,529 6,653 6,684 111
2025-26 6,560 6,759 6,794 110
2026-27 6,529 6,823 6,861 67
5 Yr. Change
from 2021-22
to 2026-27 46 335 354
10 Yr. Change
Since 2016-17 -286 8 46
25
25
 Middle School Summary, Grades 7-9
Options 1 & 2Base Option 3Higher Option 3
and Higher Future Future Births w/ Annual
Year Births Housing Adjustment Change
2016-17
(Current) 2,887 2,887
2017-18 2,933 2,936 49
2018-19 3,044 3,052 116
2019-20 3,140 3,151 99
2020-21 3,122 3,132 -19
2021-22 3,146 3,154 22
5 Yr. Change
from 2016-17
to 2021-22 259 267
2022-23 3,090 3,099 -55
2023-24 3,044 3,056 -43
2024-25 2,925 2,938 -118
2025-26 2,895 2,909 -29
2026-27 2,924 2,940 31
5 Yr. Change
from 2021-22
to 2026-27 -222 -214
10 Yr. Change
Since 2016-17 37 53
26
26
 High School Summary, Grades 10-12
Options 1 & 2Base Option 3Higher Option 3
and Higher Future Future Births w/ Annual
Year Births Housing Adjustment Change
2016-17
(Current) 3,168 3,168
2017-18 3,112 3,115 -53
2018-19 3,052 3,060 -55
2019-20 2,961 2,972 -88
2020-21 3,008 3,018 46
2021-22 3,119 3,127 109
5 Yr. Change
from 2016-17
to 2021-22 -49 -41
2022-23 3,219 3,229 102
2023-24 3,200 3,212 -17
2024-25 3,225 3,239 27
2025-26 3,166 3,181 -58
2026-27 3,122 3,138 -43
5 Yr. Change
from 2021-22
to 2026-27 3 11
10 Yr. Change
Since 2016-17 -46 -30
27
27
 LI
M
EK
BETHLEHEM COUNTY LINE IL

UPPER STATE
DOYLESTOWN
N

RICHARDSON
TREWIGTOWN
BE

Part 4
TH

UNIONVILLE
L EH

ORVILLA
TOWNSHIP LINE
EM

BERGEY
BE

LOWER STATE
TH

STUMP
L EH
EM

HATFIELD TWP

UNION

TAYLOR
PENN

HORSHAM

BROAD
COWPATH MAIN

RT202
COWPATH

School Profiles
MONTGOMERY

MOYER
DERSTINE
KOFFEL

DEKALB
LANSDALE LINE
8TH KNAPP

ORVILLA
7TH

CANNON
AL

BROAD
LE
NT

NORTH WALES
WOOD
O
WELSH MAIN WELSH

W
WELSH

N
Z T
FRE
LANSDALE HANCOCK

DEKALB
WHITES

FORTY FOOT

VALLEY FORGE

CHURCH
TROXEL
WN
E YTO

BROAD
SUMN

BEAVER

WALNUT
Bridle Path ES
MAINLAND SUMNEYTOWN
UPPER GWYNEDD Gwyn-Nor ES
TOWAMENCIN
Gwynedd Square ES

NORTH WALES
BUSTARD

Hatfield ES

WEST POINT
OLD FORTY FOOT

GARFIELD Inglewood ES

VALLEY FORGE
Knapp ES
Kulp ES
MORRIS Montgomery ES
Nash ES
North Wales ES

Oak Park ES
Walton Farm ES
York AV ES

28
 Elementary School Forecasts
Individual schools can be difficult to Estimated Change
ES School Through 2021-22
project due to non-municipal boundaries,
Knapp ES 30
redistricting, and smaller sizes
Kulp ES 15
MCPC profiles include: Nash ES 0
Past Enrollments
Gwynedd Square ES -10
Housing Construction
Housing Sales Bridle Path ES -15
Related Birth Figures York Avenue ES -20
Housing Potential Hatfield ES -25

North Wales ES -25

Five year forecasts are best guesses given
what we know and how it fits into the Oak Park ES -25
context of the overall district model for Walton Farm ES -30
elementary schools -70
Gwyn Nor ES
Inglewood ES -85

Montgomery ES -105 29
29
 Middle School Forecasts Total Middle School Enrollment
Option 3
Past EnrollmentThe three middle schools have Year Enrollment
exhibited different overall trends since 2011. 2016-17
Pennbrooke - cycled up and down to remain steady. (Current) 2,887
Penndale - declined by over 200. 2017-18 2,936
Pennfield - gained about 50. 2018-19 3,052
2019-20 3,151
ForecastThe combined MS totals will grow over the 2020-21 3,132
next 3 years, stabilize, and then decline during the 2021-22 3,154
secondary period (last five years). 5 Yr. Change
from 2016-17
Over the next five years to 2021-22 267
2022-23 3,099
Pennbrooke is the least likely to grow. Penndale
2023-24 3,056
should grow again with new constructi on and 2024-25 2,938
currently reduced class sizes cycling through. 2025-26 2,909
Pennfield should also grow, but much less than 2026-27 2,940
Penndale. 5 Yr. Change
from 2021-22
to 2026-27 -214
10 Yr. Change
Since 2016-17 53

30
30
 Conclusion
General trends would provide for a decrease of almost 300 students over
the next ten years, but birth activity and new housing are expected to
counteract the decline and result in a net gain of almost 70 students.
Important Trends:
Housing construction is expected to outpace the recent trend level and
bring additional growth. Several projects could add an additional 71
students above the trend development level.
Birth activity has been relatively low in recent years, but it could increase
further as the millennial generation moves into child-bearing ages. This
effect will not be as relevant to enrollment until the secondary period and
beyond.
The number of students coming from older apartment buildings has
increased by over 50% since 2009.
Additional students are also resulting from an increase in housing sales
activity.
Measures to observe in coming years that could affect the longer term
projections:
School Calendar Birth Rates
Residential Development
Sales Activity
Nonpublic School Enrollment
Students in Multifamily Housing

31
31