Review of the Reliability Basis of

Structural Design and its Application

to Structural Concrete in South Africa
Presented at:
The International Conference on Advances in Cement and
Concrete Technology in Africa (ACCTA 2013),
Johannesburg, South Africa,
28th 30th January, 2013

Paper by: K.K. Mensah, J.V. Retief, C. Barnardo-Viljoen

Department of Civil Engineering

Faculty of Engineering 1
Stellenbosch University
 Introduction
South Africa (SA) is currently going through a process of general review
and reliability updating of its currently operational local concrete design
standard SANS 10100-1
BS 8110 now defunct replaced by European equivalent standard EN 1992-1-1
South African head Basis of Design standard SANS 10160-1 based heavily on
reliability principles, using the European equivalent standard EN 1990 as basis

SA concrete code committee has chosen to adopt EN 1992-1-1

Structural Eurocodes can be seen as general set of reference standards

Need to be made operational as national standards by selection of appropriate
Nationally Determined Parameters (NDPs)
Where applicable, reliability based investigations should be used to justify the
suitability of NDPs for local use
Reference level of reliability (), Partial factors () for resistance models and material properties, local
levels of quality management and characteristic values, etc.

2
 Introduction
Various sources can provide different levels of support to SA
reliability-based investigations
CEB-FIP 1978 Model Code / fib 2010 Model Code
Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) Probabilistic Model Code
ISO 2394 General principles on reliability for structures
Suite of structural Eurocodes
European reliability-based investigations to select NDPs for respective member
state
Many textbooks on the subject

Application of reliability principles nominally applied to structural

resistance
SA should perform routine investigations based on European guidance
Identify and advance areas of implementation

3
 Objectives of Presentation
Two main objectives:

1. To demonstrate that Partial Factors (PF) are adjustable based on

different levels of Quality Control (QC)
Note that levels/regimes of quality management and production quality differ
from Country to Country

2. Partial factor adjustments are possible for SA, but could they be
justified?
Is there enough reliable information (statistical) about SA levels of QC to
support PF adjustments of modifications?

4
 Key Reliability Elements
Reference level of reliability ()
Basis of design issue, set by SANS 10160-1 and EN 1990
For EN standards, = 3.8 for Reference Class RC 2 structures
For SA standards, = 3.0 for the same class of structures.

Partial safety factors ( )

The bulk resistance factor, , can be broken down into resistance model safety
factors ( ) and material property safety factors ( )

Levels of quality management and production quality and their effect

on achieving characteristic values ( ) for design
QC has controlling effect on practically achieved quantities of design basic
variables
QC expressed through mean values ( ) and associated variability ( ) of design
basic variables

5
 Basis of Design Requirement
for Resistance Models
Both EN 1990 and SANS 10160-1 stipulate:
1 1 ,
= , ; = ;
,
The design value method is the practical way to ensure that the reliability
index is equal to or larger than the target value
System of partial factors, characteristic values, quality management, other
constants and coefficients are all used to control the level of structural
reliability.

For concrete structures, C = 1.5 and S = 1.15 are mostly used

Applying steel and concrete safety factors is only an approximation

6
 Partial Factors for resistance
The following models are readily used during reliability
investigations (JCSS Probabilistic model code):

1. For Log-Normal distributions

exp(1.645 ) exp(1.645 )
= = = =
exp( ) exp( )

is the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) sensitivity factor for resistance. = .
The bulk resistance factor, , can be described by the product

2. For Normal distributions

11.645 11.645
= = = =
1 1

Note that is influenced by production quality of material manufacturing process

, on the other hand, is influenced by epistemic uncertainty or the bias of the
resistance model

7
Influence of and on

8
Influence of Distribution type
on

9
 General observations
Reliability differentiation, through the specification of different
Reliability Classes, should have an effect on the values of
operational partial factors.
Differentiated Reliability Classes RC 1, RC 2, RC 3 (& RC 4 for SA)
RCs differentiated according to levels of design supervision and inspected levels
on site Each RC has different target -level

Quality management affects the deviations and variability of a

material property depending on the level of control exercised.
Hence, the selection of operational partial factors should to some
extent be dependent on quality measures.

10
 Implications for SA adoption
SA lacks data that reflects the influence of local practice and
production quality on the distributions of common design variables
e.g. for concrete strength ( ), steel strength ( ), reinforcement spacing () or
positioning and associated tolerances, steel geometry ( or ) and tolerances
etc.

Extensive information on the fitting of various EN 1992-1-1design

models (shear, torsion etc.) to representative databases is limited
the result is that resistance model uncertainty statistics are scarce
This represents an aspect requiring international attention

SA, therefore, cannot carry out rational reliability investigations in

many instances. Rather, judgement based approaches used
usually perceiving SA levels of QC to be lower than European equivalent -
leading to conservatism in specifying SA NDPs

11
 Conclusions
Strictly speaking:
1. Partial factor adjustments are possible based on the levels of QC exercised
during construction
2. A higher level of reliability should require a larger set of partial factors { ; } to
satisfy the increased safety performance requirement

However:
1. Due to its lower adopted -level, SA cannot reduce or adjust EN partial factor
scheme due to lack of proper (local) reliability models and investigations
warranting such action
2. The process could be updated as local data becomes available

SA should therefore adopt EN 1992-1-1 as it is with the relevant

NDPs and warnings to be provided in National Annexes
Further issue is to advance the implementation of reliability
principles in deriving design guidelines for structural concrete
12
 THANK YOU

THE END.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS?

13