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Conflict and

Development
Soumya Kumar
2 10/5/2016

Violence and fragility are not an isolated


or small issue: 1.5 billion people are living
in countries affected by fragility, conflict,
or violence. 526,000 are killed each year
by lethal violence.
UN Task Team on the Post-2015 UN
Development Agenda

Soumya
3 10/5/2016

Conflict
Social conflict theory sees social life as a
competition and focuses on the distribution of
resources, power, and inequality

Society as an arena of inequality that


generates conflict and social change

Key elements: race, sex, class, and age -


linked to social inequality
Soumya
4 10/5/2016

Development
A form of social change

Change in life style and life choices

Change in social values

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Better Angels/Inner Demons


A study spanning 12, 000 years

Significant
fall in violence over years- long
term decline

Since WW-II, Long Peace has followed

War crimes decreasing; homicide


increasing
Soumya
9 10/5/2016

Some estimates
UNDP: $ 54 billion

Institute for Economics and Peace :


$14.3 trillion in 2014

India has lost: $341.7 billion or Rs. 2,173,273


crore

Soumya
10 10/5/2016

Comparison: (in crore rupees)


Total loss Scheme Allocation
2,173,273 MNREG 34, 699

Defence: 2, 46, 000


Health 33, 150
Education and 68, 960
midday meal
Non-tax revenue Almost equal
Each Indian has lost an amount of Rs. 15, 077

Soumya
11 10/5/2016

Some estimates
Lower GDP per capita is robustly
associated with both large-scale political
conflict and high rates of homicide
World Bank
Geneva Declaration suggests that if
homicide rates in Jamaica (49/100,000)
were reduced to the levels of Costa Rica
(8/100,000) 17 that its growth rates could
rise by about 5.4% per year
Soumya
12 10/5/2016

Why conflict?
Inherent in all societies

Almost all internal


Most in low-income countries
Ripple effect global
Economic cost very high

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Jat Agitation
850 trains were cancelled
Maruti Suzuki was forced to stop
production in two of its factories
In total, 500 factories were shut down

Economic cost is estimated at 5 billion of


dollars

Soumya
16 10/5/2016

Jat Agitation
Water supply to New Delhi affected
Army was deployed

16dead
More than 200 injured

Social cost?

Soumya
17 10/5/2016

Conflict?
Conflicts are resource related

Also they are being fought in areas of great


environmental value biodiversity

Poverty is the major source of conflict,


especially in Africa; By 2025 the locus of
global poverty will overwhelmingly be in
fragile, mainly low-income and African, states
Soumya
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Poverty
Refers to material need
Specific need
Pattern of deprivation
Low standard of living

Soumya
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Economic circumstances
Low per capita income

Overall economic decline

Dependence on primary commodities

States dependent on primary resource


exports are over 20 times more likely to
suffer civil war than non-dependent
Soumya
20 10/5/2016

Economic circumstances
Lack of resources
If they do not have resources to obtain the
things they want
Lack of resources definition; need is the result
As economic distance
Cannot afford things that other people can
afford
Economic class: peoples relation to the
system of production

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Piracy - Drugs
Besley et al 2012: loss to shipping industry
due to piracy: 1 -2 billion $
Higher the level of internal conflict, higher
the level of cultivation of drugs Lind and
others 2012

Punjab:
Rs. 7500 crore worth opioids
consumed per annum; 6500 crore: heroin

Soumya
23 10/5/2016

Narco-terrorism
4 times the global average of drug
abusers
0.84% of Punjab population (2.3 lakh/2.77
crore)
76% - 18-35 years old
56% - rural areas
27% - labourers or unskilled workers

Soumya
24 10/5/2016

Social relationships
Social
position = economic position +
educational attainment + social status

Dependency: on social assistance or


welfare

Social
exclusion: people who are left out,
shut out or pushed out
Soumya
25 10/5/2016

Social consequences
Beginning of 20th C: 90% of victims were
soldiers
Today: 90% - civilians
Higher infant mortality rate
Population displacements
Reduced access to education and health
care
Increased risk of diseases

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Insecurity
Heightened military expenditures 2.2 to
5% of GDP
Capital flight 9 to 20% (private wealth)
Similar but larger phenomenon human
flight

Soumya
28 10/5/2016

Insecurity
Policyfailure macro economics,
structural policies on trade and
investment, less inclusive social policies,
public sector management

Psychological damage
Abuse of women and children
Increase in suicide rates especially
women
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Social capital
Lack of entitlement
Amartya Sen argues that poverty is best
understood, not as lack of goods, but as
lack of entitlements
It is about legal, social and political
arrangements
Loss
of social capital education,
corruption, health, DALY

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Some studies
We have to distinguish between civil and
external wars/violence
Civil wars are more dangerous
Studies differ in their conclusions: Vietnam
and Russia

Loss of middle class is very serious

Soumya
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Health
An extra months exposure to conflict
reduces the height of children significantly
(study on Burundi by Akresh et al, 2009)
Repeated the study in Nigeria 2012
Camacho (2009): study on Colombian
pregnant women: exposure leads to birth
of underweight children

Soumya
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Education
Suffers in the long run
Studies conducted in Uganda, Peru
confirm that the long term negative
effects of exposure to violence is very
significant

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