Three factors that affect

demand for travel

The location and intensity of land
use
The socio-economic
characteristics of the people
living in the area, and
The extent, cost, and quality of
available transportation services.
Definition of terms
Home-based work (HBW) trip a
trip for which the purpose is to go from
home to work or from work to home
Home-based other (HBO) trip a
trip for which the purpose is to go from
home to another location other than
work (e.g. shopping, school, theater) or
from non-work locations to home.
Non-Home based (NHB) trip a trip
for which neither trip end is at home
Production the ability of a zone to generate
trip ends. For all non-home based trips,
productions are synonymous with origins
Attraction the ability of a zone to generate
trip ends. For non-home based trips,
attractions in a zone can be considered
synonymous with trip destinations in that
zone
Origin point at which a trip begins
Destination point at which a trip ends
Source: Handbook of Transportation Engineering, Chapter 7, TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR URBAN TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING, by Arun Chatterjee and Mohan M. Venigalla, McGraw-Hill
 Zone 2
Zone 4

Zone 1

Zone 3
Zone 5
 TRIP GENERATION

Estimating the number of trips generated by

zonal activities
Trip generation estimate by regression analysis
Trip generation estimates by trip rates/unit
Trip generation estimates by category analysis
Method to balance trip productions and
attractions
 What is trip generation?
It is the process by
which measures of urban
activity are converted into
numbers of trips.
In trip generation, the
planner attempts to
quantify the relationship
between urban activity and
travel.

It means both trip

productions and trip
attractions.
A zone produces and attracts trips

Zone i

# of
dwelling units
Shopping
center
employees
Etc.

Depending on the activities in the

zone, it can produce and/or attract
trips. The planner estimate these
trips.
Three ways for estimating the number of
trips produced
Growth Factor Modeling
Category analysis (cross-classification analysis)
- Multiple classification Analysis (MCA)
Trip rates, like # of trips/1000ft2, ITEs trip
generation rates (Fig. 5.10 of the text)

Regression models

Y A B1 X 1 B2 X 2 ...
Y = dependent var.
(trips/household)
X1, X2, etc. = independent
variables
Growth Factor Modelling
Category analysis (cross-classification
analysis)
Less aggregated than trip rates and regression
models
Mean for a trip estimation at the home end

HBW Production example

Workers Household size
/HH 1 2 3 4

1 1.418 1.413 1.550 1.655

2 2.855 2.661 2.693
3 3.891 4.154
Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA)

MCA is an alternative method to define

classes and test the resulting cross-
classification which provides a
statistically powerful procedure for
variable selection and classification.
Trip generation
rates

This is an example of trip

generation rate
information taken from
the ITE Trip Generation
Handbook. Some land
use has a lot of data
points like this one, but
others (many of them)
have only sparse data
points. This handbook is
evolving and every year
new data are added.
Regression models (often, simple or
multiple linear models): advantages and
disadvantages

Easy and relatively inexpensive.

Correlation among independent (explanatory) variables may
create estimation problems If correlated, choose only the
variable(s) that has the highest correlation with the dependent
variable. Stepwise regression may help to find it.
The assumptions of linearity and additive impacts on trip
generation may be wrong.
Best fit equations may yield counterintuitive results.
By using zonal averages, important socioeconomic variations
within the zone may be obscured or may yield spurious results.
Regression models (cont): something
you want to be aware
A high R2 (Coefficient of determination) by itself mans little
if the t-test is marginal or poor,
Just having a large number of independent variables does
not mean very much. Choose only the independent
variable that have highest correlation with the dependent
variable and low correlation among the independent
variables.
Check the coefficients are logical or not. Trip generation is
never negative in reality no matter what value the
independent variable has.

See the EXCEL file.

Then, we will go through Example 2 to get some hints.
Example:

Y = 318.56 + 0.883x, R2 = 0.78

Trip attraction

Trip attraction rates can be made by

analyzing the urban activities that attract
trips.
Trips are attracted to various locations,
depending on the character of, location,
and amount of activities taking place in a
zone.
Three tools are used for this end too, but
obviously types of independent variables
used are different.
Example: Multiple linear regression modeling
Develop the multiple linear regression model to estimate the no. of trips
attracted (y) to the cities/municipalities in Metro Manila using the
available office floor space (x1) and the no. of offstreet parking spaces
(x2).
 1st model
 2nd model

Simple regression: y = -2072.96 + 0.305x1

better model because of high R2 and significant t-value

for x1
Example:
Seatwork No. 2
Seatwork: Zone 2 Zone 4
Mall Church

Zone 1

Joses home Zone 3

School Zone 5
Juanas home

Jose and Juana are best friends. After their classes,

they went to the mall to see a movie. After the
movies, Jose went home while Juana passed by the
church to attend the last service for the day before
going home. Identify the trips generated by the two.
 Control totals (ch5. P.277)
The area-wide production and attraction must be the same. In
general they are not the same after calculation because trip
production and attraction are estimated separately by different
models with different variables.

CTp Pz Pe Ae
I-E CTp = control total of productions
trips
Pz = trip productions for each zone

I-I Pe = trip productions at each external station

trips Ae = trip attractions at each external station

Compute the factor used to

balance productions & CT p
E-I Factor
trips
attractions.
A z
(See Figure 5.11 of the text)