Impact of Climate Change on Road

Infrastructure

Mark Harvey
mark.harvey@infrastructure.gov.au
www.bitre.gov.au
Austroads project published in 2004
Austroads AP-R243/04 : Impact of Climate change on road
infrastucture

Downloadable for free from Austroads website, with volume

of appendices AP-R243/04A
http://www.austroads.com.au

Also downloadable for free from BITRE website (main

volume only) http:/www.bitre.gov.au
http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/92/Files/climate_change.pdf
Project aims
assess likely local effects of climate change for Australia for
the next 100 years, based on the best scientific assessment
currently available
assess the likely impacts on patterns of demography and
industry, and hence on the demand for road infrastructure
identify the likely effects on existing road infrastructure and
potential adaptation measures in road construction and
maintenance, and
report on policy implications arising from the findings.
Note: The project was not concerned with impacts of
transport emissions on climate change.
Project structure
BITRE coordinated the project and prepared the Executive
Summary, Introduction and the Policy Implications chapters.

The CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research ran its global

climate change models to produce forecasts of climate on a
grid of about 50 kilometres up to 2100.
The resultant data was passed on to three consultants to assess
its implications.
Project structure
Emissions Concentrations
A2 scenario developed from CO2, methane, sulphates, etc. from
IPCC population, energy and economic carbon cycle and chemistry models
models

Global climate change Regional climate change

Temperature, rainfall, etc. Mountain & coastal effects, islands,
CSIRO (200 400 km horizontal resolution) extreme weather, surface properties,
from Atmospheric-Ocean Global etc. (50 km horizontal resolution) from
Climate Change Model Mark 2 Conformal-Cubic model

ARRB, Monash Impacts

University, Population, industry, road pavements,
ABARE, BITRE salinity (various consultants)
Project structure continued
The Monash University Centre for Population and Urban
Research investigated the likely effects on population
settlement patterns and demographics.

ARRB Group used these population projections to forecast

changes in road transport demand.
calculated changes to an index of climate from the CSIRO data
road demand and climatic indexes were together used in
pavement deterioration models to predict the implications for
pavement deterioration and maintenance expenditure needs.
Project structure continued
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
(ABARE) employed its hydrologicaleconomic model of the
Murray-Darling basin to forecast implications of climate
change for salinity and agricultural production in the region,
and related this to road infrastructure.

Multi-disciplinary project involving experts from a range of

fields.
Project structure continued
CSIRO: Regional climate
change forecasts to 2100

Monash University Centre

ABARE: Impacts on
for Population and Urban
salinity and
Research:
agriculture in Murray-
Impacts on population
Darling basin
projections

ARRB Group: ARRB Group: Impacts on

Impacts on road pavements
demand for roads

BITRE: report and summary

Not covered in the study
Local flooding implications
requires a catchment hydrological model to predict flooding
heights, durations and water velocities, and
an area topology model to relate flood heights to local road
infrastructure.

Salinity and impacts of agricultural industries outside the

Murray-Darling Basin

The CSIRO models do not forecast sea level rises or the

likelihood of changes in storm activity.
Emissions forecasts
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions
scenario selected
A2 scenario
high scenario chosen to provide strong contrast with current
conditions
predicated on global population of 15 billion in 2100
rate of CO2 release grows, increasing to nearly fourfold by 2100.
IPCC emission scenarios

A2 scenario (red line) used in this study.

CSIRO Atmospheric-Ocean Global Climate
Change Model
global circulation model with atmospheric, oceanic, sea-ice
and biospheric submodels
globe divided up into a grid comprised of 300 km squares
9 layers of atmosphere, each block having parameters such as
temperature, air pressure, wind velocity, water vapour content
12 layers of ocean
time step of 30 minutes
run from 1870 to 2100
suite of properties (temperature, moisture) saved for
6-hourly intervals for the 230 years
took three months on a supercomputer
CSIRO Conformal-Cubic General
Circulation Model

Results from global model used to nudge more detailed

model for Australia
wind speeds outside Australia adjusted to make consistent
between models
grid of about 50 km squares for Australia and lower
resolution for rest of the world (up to about 800 km for the
other side of the globe)
Method of deriving detailed forecasts
outputs: monthly means of average, maximum and minimum
temperatures, precipitation, solar radiation, potential and
actual evaporation for each grid point
converted to
local temperature change per degree of global warming for
temperature
percent for rainfall, radiation evaporation change per degree of
global warming
used to derive forecast for any IPCC scenario for any grid
point over the next 100 years.
Key findings: temperatures
average annual temperatures increase by 2 to 6C by 2100
Tasmania coastal zones least affected, inland areas most
affected
more extremely hot days and fewer cold days, for example
average number of summer days over 35C in Melbourne to
increase from 8 at present to 10-20 by 2070
average number of winter days below 0C in Canberra to drop
from 44 at present to 6-38 by 2070
Average annual temperature: base (2000)
and 2100 climate
5 15 17 19 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 40

Base (2000) climate 2100 climate

Temperature changes: year 2100 relative
to base climate
Key findings: rainfall and evaporation
general reduction in rainfall except for the far north where
there will be significant increases
where average rainfall decreases, more droughts
where average rainfall increases, more extremely wet years
in the north, more intense tropical cyclones, more severe
oceanic storm surges, more frequent and heavier
downpours
evaporation to increase over most of the country adding to
moisture stress on plants and drought
Average annual rainfall: base (2000) and
2100 climate
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 60 70 100 125 200 >500

Base (2000) climate 2100 climate

% change in average annual rainfall 2000-
2010

134 -9 -12 -14 -25

Sea level rise
Not predicted in CSIRO modelling.

IPCC projects rise of 9 to 88 cm by 2100

0.8 to 8.0 cm per decade
Impact on population and settlement
patterns: methodology
undertaken by Monash University Centre for Population and
Urban Research (Dr Bob Birrell)
population projections developed for Australia as a whole,
States and major metropolises (based on ABS mid-range
projections supplemented by ANU demographic projection
software).
adjustments made to the projections for the eight major
metropolitan regions for climate change
using expert judgement supported by a comfort index (function of
temperature and humidity). A comfortable climate is a major driver
of internal migration.
Population base case: without climate
change
total fertility rate will fall to 1.6 and net overseas migration
90,000 per year over the 21st century
total population 19.1m in 2000 to 27.3m in 2100
greater concentration in four major metropolises: Sydney,
Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth
other growth outside the four cities is in non-metropolitan
Queensland and WA.
significant increase in share of population in Queensland
for planning purposes, need to take base case, then adjust
for climate change
Population: climate change impacts
of the eight metropolitan regions assessed, only Darwin and
Melbourne gain population from climate change
even though hotter, wetter Darwin less attractive, higher rainfall
should promote agricultural production
o but note the contrary view from the recent Northern Australia Land
and Water Taskforce report: lack of suitable soils; high evaporation
and lack of dam sites limits water storage
Losers: Adelaide (water supply), Cairns (less attractive
climate) and Perth (water and climate)
coastal areas of NSW and Victoria more attractive climate
hotter, drier climate in inland areas will may have adverse
impact on agriculture
2100 population without and with climate
effects
Selected % of 2000 Adjustment factor Climate change factors
Statistical population without with climate change driving population change
Division climate change
temps higher but not expected to
Sydney 159% 1.00 affect population growth
temperatures higher resulting in
Melbourne 125% 1.15 more attractive climate
temperatures higher resulting in
Brisbane 211% 0.96 less attractive climate
temperatures higher resulting in
Moreton 305% 0.98 less attractive climate
restricted water supply,
Adelaide 63% 0.79 especially in spring
less attractive climate; restricted
Perth 195% 0.88 water supply
temps high but heavy rainfall
Darwin 275% 1.34 drives increased agriculture
temps higher but not expected to
ACT 93% 1.00 affect population growth
temperatures higher resulting in
Cairns 279% 0.83 less attractive climate
Note: Climate change is not the most
important influence on population
patterns.

range of projections for 2100 compared with 2000

without climate change: -63% Adelaide to 305% Darwin
with climate change: -50% Adelaide to 369% Darwin
Impact on road demand: Methodology
passenger and freight tasks considered separately
base-case forecasts developed
cars a function of population, per capita car ownership
freight a function of population, per capita freight, average payload
(trend to larger vehicles)
o converted to equivalent standard axel loads for pavement impacts
ARRB used a gravity model to estimate impacts of climate
change on traffic.
If population at A increases by 100a% and population at B by
100b% due to climate change, then traffic between them increases
by 100[(1+a)(1+b)-1]%.
Impact on road demand 2100: conclusions
60% additional traffic (total vehicles passengers and freight)
dramatic increase in Queensland, moderate in Syd-Mel corridor,
decline around Adelaide, increase in Perth urban only slight rise in
Perth intercapital traffic
proportion heavy freight vehicles will rise from 12.1 to 13.9%
total road freight to rise by 112% from 2000 to 2100
average payload to increase by 25%, most in next decade
equivalent standard axles per articulated truck to double due
to higher mass limits
total ESA-kms on National Highway to rise by 230%
due to freight growth, higher mass limits and payloads
Impact on pavement performance:
methodology
climate represented by Thornthwaite moisture index
a function of precipitation, temperature and potential evapo-
transpiration. Index varies from +100 on Cape Yorke Peninsula to
-50 in central Australia.
used a National Highway System road database
pavement models estimate present value of life-cycle road
agency costs (maintenance and rehabilitation) and road-
user costs (travel time and vehicle operation)
select treatment options and timings to minimise present value of
costs subject to specified constraints on maximum roughness and
annual agency budgets.
Pavement Life Cycle Costing (PLCC) model

60 year analysis period, 7% real discount rate

National Highway System split into 60 sections with similar
climate characteristics, traffic levels, vehicle mixes and
pavement characteristics
pavement deterioration a function of pavement age,
cumulative equivalent standard axle loads, Thornthwaite
index, and average annual maintenance expenditure.
HDM4 model
much more detailed pavement deterioration algorithm
covering roughness, rutting, cracking, potholing, ravelling,
strength etc and consequently much more detailed data
requirements
case studies of 8 road segments analysed in detail
one segment from each state and territory located in or near a
metropolitan area
data inputs that vary with climate are site-specific changes in
Thornthwaite index, traffic levels and per cent heavy
vehicles
Other points to note
Note: only trucks cause pavement wear, not cars
but cars impact on the models because increased roughness adds
to road user costs for cars
Limitations
effects of floods, severe storms and sea-level rise not taken into
account
no allowance for expansion of lane-kilometres
design pavement strengths assumed to remain unchanged
road agencies may not minimise present value of costs due to
budget constraints causing maintenance to be deferred and higher
than economically warranted maintenance standards in some
areas for social and equity reasons
Thornthwaite moisture index: base (2000)
and 2100 climates
-45 -30 -15 0 20 40 60 80 >100

Base (2000) climate 2100 climate

Changes in Thornthwaite moisture index:
2000 to 2100
Changes to Thornthwaite index
tendency to a drier climate overall (negative change in
Thornthwaite Index)
central area of Australia relatively unchanged
localised areas where the changes are greatest include
south-west of Western Australia
north-east Victoria and southern NSW
south-west Tasmania
top-end Queensland.
Optimal road agency costs (PLCC model)

Optimal Agency Cost ($million)

Change
State Base Climate 2100 Climate
NSW 72.3 90.1 25%
VIC 32 37.6 18%
QLD 82 124.2 51%
WA 48.3 56.1 16%
SA 27.6 23.4 -15%
TAS 6.5 6.8 5%
NT 17.9 37.3 108%
ACT 0.6 0.7 17%
Total 287.3 376.1 31%
Comparing optimal road agency costs
comparison is not with and without climate change
but 2000 traffic volumes and climate
with 2100 climate-adjusted traffic volumes and climate
Northern Territory and Queensland experience large
increases
primarily due to population growth but wetter climate contributes.
South Australia declines due to smaller population and drier
climate.
Maintenance: rehabilitation funding split
maintenance = routine and periodic maintenance (pothole
patching, kerb and channel cleaning, surface correction,
resealing)
rehabilitation = chipseal resheeting, asphalt overlays,
stabilisation, pavement reconstruction
for Australia as a whole, no predicted change in 35:65 split
rehabilitation proportion to rise (maintenance proportion to
fall) significantly for Tasmania
converse for WA
reflects differences in pavement age distributions and life
times
HDM4 results: road agency costs
Base climate 2100 traffic changes only 2100 climate & traffic changes

Cost ($'000) Cost ($'000) Change (3/1) Cost ($'000) Change (5/1)

Col number 1 2 3 4 5
ACT 97.8 97.8 0% 97.8 0%
NSW 46.2 72.7 57% 72.8 58%
NT 176.6 176.9 0% 177.1 0%
QLD 83.6 103.1 23% 106.1 27%
SA 99 96.8 -2% 96.8 -2%
TAS 140.2 159.5 14% 159.4 14%
VIC 128.7 175.5 36% 177.3 38%
WA 205.9 244.5 19% 244.1 19%

undiscounted total costs per kilometre over 20-year period

Virtually all the changes are from population growth leading
to traffic increases, not climate change.
Impact on salinity in the Murray-Darling
Basin: methodology
ABARE Salinity and Land-use Simulation Analysis (SALSA)
model
network of land management units linked through overland
and ground water flows
hydrological: rainfall, evapo-transpiration, surface water
runoff, irrigation, ground water recharge/discharge rates, salt
accumulation in streams and soil
climate projections incorporated by changing rainfall and evapo-
transpiration
rate of flow of groundwater depends on hydrolic gradients
very flat in lower parts of the catchment
Impact on salinity in the Murray-Darling
Basin: methodology continued

land-use allocated to maximise economic return from use of

agricultural land and irrigation water
relationship between yield loss and salinity for each
agricultural activity
land-use can shift with changes in salinity and water
availability
costs of salinity measured as reduction in economic returns
Catchments in the Murray Darling Basin
covered by the SALSA model
Impact on salinity in the Murray-Darling
Basin: Key findings
Without climate With climate
Units Base scenario change change

Year 2000 2100 2100

Net production revenue $m, npv 3827 3718 3400

Area of high water tables 000 ha 1137 5341 4404

SALT CONCENTRATION

Darling below the Macquarie mg/L 152 277 483

Murray below the Murrumbidgee mg/L 141 181 198

Murray below the Darling mg/L 226 301 343

Murray at Morgan mg/L 313 445 548

SURFACE WATER FLOWS

Darling below the Macquarie confluence GL 7345 7784 6060

Murray below the Murrumbidgee confluence GL 8128 9040 5259

Murray below the Darling GL 6789 7720 4435

Murray at Morgan GL 3827 3718 3400

Impact on salinity in the Murray-Darling
Basin: comparisons
area affected by high water tables
base case rise: from 1.1m hectares in 2000 to 5.3m hectares in
2100
climate change: rise to 4.4m hectares in 2100
climate change mitigates salinity problems but nowhere near
sufficient to reverse the rising trend
net production revenue
base case: falls by 3% due to high water tables, shift from pasture
to cropping
with climate change: falls by 11% due to reduced surface water
flows, switching from irrigated to dryland activities
less demand for road transport
Impact on salinity in the Murray-Darling
Basin: comparisons

higher water tables are bad for road pavements, but this is a
problem in both the base and climate change scenarios
slightly less with climate change

reduced surface water flows make salt concentrations higher

in rivers which reduces yields from irrigated production
and rusts steel reinforcing in concrete structures in riverine
environments such as bridges and culverts.
Summing up: uncertainty
high level of uncertainty about
IPCC emissions forecasts
CSIRO estimates of climate impacts
consultants forecasts
uncertainties built upon uncertainties
numerical results are broad indicators that tell a story
Summing up: demand for roads
Higher car and truck traffic from population growth is the
main driver of investment and maintenance needs for roads.
Large changes are forecast without climate change.
strong growth for SE Queensland, Cairns, Darwin, Brisbane,
Sydney, Melbourne, Perth
decline for Adelaide and inland areas
Climate change adds to forecasts for Darwin and Melbourne
and reduces forecasts for Adelaide, Perth and Cairns.
Summing up: road design and
maintenance

less rainfall should slow pavement deterioration

but effects so small as to have negligible impact on costs
exception for far northern parts of Australia, which are
forecast to become wetter. Capacities of culverts and
waterways may prove inadequate.

sea-level rise a concern for low-lying roads in coastal areas

changed and frequencies of floods in some areas
requires modelling of individual catchments to forecast impacts
Overall conclusion
Changes affecting road infrastructure will occur regardless
of climate change.
Climate change is just another factor in the mix, and usually not
the most important.
The main impacts on road infrastructure may come from
changes in flood heights and frequencies, and sea-level rise
with storm surges, which were not addressed in detail in the
project.
impacts vary greatly between locations
Subsequent research: ARRB: Climate
change framework for Queensland
Department of Main Roads in 2008
report not published, but a summary is available in a
conference paper by Evans, Tsolakis and Naude
http://www.patrec.org/web_docs/atrf/papers/2009/1737_pap
er66-Evans.pdf (ATRF Conference 2009)
comprehensive list of potential impacts on road
infrastructure and operations
detailed review of (short- and long-term) climate change
forecasts for Queensland
framework to assess risks, and to assist in the planning of
climate change mitigation and adaptation responses.
ARRB Framework
Four impacts relevant to Queensland
temperature changes (increases in very hot days)
rainfall changes (reductions and increases) and flooding
rising sea levels with storm surges
increase in cyclone frequency and intensity.
Phases of framework to identify investment priorities
identify climate change effects
o geographic scale, certainty, timeframe
determine impacts on transport
adaptation strategies
planning and project evaluation
Other research underway
Austroads project: Impact of climate change on road
performance, undertaken by ARRB
software to provide climate information from 1960 to 2099 by GPS
coordinates based on CSIRO modelling
minimum and maximum daily temperatures, rainfall, Thornthwaite
moisture index
pre-2007 based on historical meteorological data
Climate Futures Tasmania Infrastructure project
World Road Association (PIARC) Technical Committees:
C.3 (natural disasters), D.2 (road pavements), D.3 (bridges),
D.4 (geotechnics and unpaved roads)
all have working groups on adaptation to climate change