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Statistics for Decisions Making

PGP 17-19

Dr. Rohit Joshi, IIM Shillong, rj@iimshillong.in


Mind Teasers
Henry has been caught stealing cattle, and is
brought into town for justice. The law clearly
calls for two shots to be taken at Henry from
close range. To make things a little better,
Gretchen, the judge, tells Henry she will place
two bullets into a six-chambered revolver in
successive order. Gretchen loads the chamber,
spins the revolver and pulls the trigger. Whew!
It was blank. Then Gretchen asks, Do you
want me to pull the trigger again, or should I
spin the chamber a second time before pulling
the trigger? What should Henry choose?
Mind Teasers
Mr. Black, Mr. Gray, and Mr. White are fighting in a
truel. They each get a gun and take turns shooting at
each other until only one person is left. Mr. Black, who
hits his shot 1/3 of the time, gets to shoot first. Mr.
Gray, who hits his shot 2/3 of the time, gets to shoot
next, assuming he is still alive. Mr. White, who hits his
shot all the time, shoots next, assuming he is also alive.
The cycle repeats. If you are Mr. Black, where should
you shoot first for the highest chance of survival?
Mind Teasers
Twenty-one flags were planted in the field of play
between the tribes, who took turns removing the flags.
Each tribe at its turn could choose to remove 1 or 2 or
3 flags. (Thus zero-passing up ones turn was not
permitted; nor was it within the rules to remove four
or more at one turn.) The team to take the last flag,
whether standing alone or as a part of a group of 2 or 3
flags, won the game. If you were to move first, how
may flags would you take?
Mind Teasers
The price of a Tumbler is Rs. 1, a Bowl is
Rs. 0.05 and a Plate is Rs. 5. You have Rs.
100 and you need to buy 100 items. You
have to buy each item. How many of each
would you buy?
Review Question 1

If you toss a die, whats the probability that you


roll a 3 or less?

a. 1/6
b. 1/3
c. 1/2
d. 5/6
e. 1.0
Review Question 2

Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face


values is six? What is the probability that at
least one of the dice came up a 3?

a. 1/5
b. 2/3
c. 1/2
d. 5/6
e. 1.0
Review Question 2

Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face


values is six. What is the probability that at least
one of the dice came up a 3?

a. 1/5 How can you get a 6 on two dice?


b. 2/3 1-5, 5-1, 2-4, 4-2, 3-3
c. 1/2 One of these five has a 3.
d. 5/6
1/5
e. 1.0
Example: Suppose that Andy (A), Ben (B), and Chris (C)
are three men selected at random. If you learn that Andy is
taller than Chris, then what is the probability that Andy is
tallest of the three?
Example: A man has two children. You happen to learn
that one of them is a boy. What are the chances that the
other child is a girl?

Example: You plan to flip a coin six times. Intuitively,


which of the following outcomes is relatively more
likely? a) HHHTTT, b) HHTHTT, or c) TTTTTT
Example: Suppose we flip two identical coins
simultaneously. What is the probability of obtaining a head
on the first coin (call event A) and a head on the second
coin (call event B)?
Example: A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of
playing cards. What is the probability that it will either a
spade or a queen?
Example: In a SDM class there are 168 students of which
117 students are males and rest are females. Of these, 56
males and 18 females plan to major in Marketing. A student
is selected at random from this class and it is found that this
student plans to be a Marketing major. What is the
probability that the student is a male?