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HYPOTHESES
TESTS OF HYPOTHESES
A
statistical hypothesis is an assertion or
conjecture concerning one or more populations.
Two Types:
1. Null hypothesis() - a hypothesis of no
difference.
The hypothesis to be tested
Represents what the investigation doubts to be true
If rejected, is accepted
1.
The average annual income of all the families of
Mapayapa District is Php36,000 (=Php36,000).
The average annual income of all the families
of Mapayapa District is not Php36,000
(Php36,000).
2. There is no significant difference between the
average life of brand A light bubs and that of brand
B light bulbs (). There is a significant difference
between the average life of brand A light bubs and
that of brand B light bulbs ().
3. The proportion of Metro Manila college students who
prefer the taste of Coca Cola is 2/3 (p=2/3).
The proportion of Metro Manila college
students who prefer the taste of Coca Cola is less
than 2/3 (p < 2/3).
Examples:
1.
The average annual income of all the families of
Mapayapa District is Php36,000 (=Php36,000).
If we reject , when, in fact, the actual
mean does not vary significantly from
Php36,000, then we are committing a
Type I error.
2. There is a significant difference between the
average life of brand A light bubs and that of
brand B light bulbs ().
If we accept , when, in fact, the opposite is
true, then we are committing a Type II error.
TWO TYPES OF ERRORS
Table 1.1
Consequences of Decisions in Testing
Decision Hypotheses
is true is false
Accept Correct decision Type II error
Reject Type I error Correct decision
Most commonly used values of are 0.01 and 0.05.
The lower the value of , the lesser is the probability of rejecting a
true and the higher is the probability of accepting a false .
More likely to commit Type II error with = 0.01 than
with = 0.05
But when = 0.05, the probability of committing Type II error
is greater than when = 0.01
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE
There are no convenient ways of finding
whether or not the hypothesis that we accepts
is the true hypothesis. Thus, we usually cannot
tell whether we made the correct decision or
committed an error whenever we accept or
reject a hypothesis.
In nearly all cases, the most that we can do is
to assume some degree of confidence with our
decision by specifying the probability of
committing a type I error, , which is more
popularly known as the level of significance.
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE
By using a level of significance, we can determine
a critical value which defines a region of
rejection (or critical region) and a region of
acceptance.
In effect this critical value serves as the basis for
level of significance.
When = 0.05, the region of rejection will have an area of
Since
the parameter is known, the z statistic is
employed as the test statistic. Consequently, the z
score corresponding to is
x - mo
z=
sx
where the denominator represents the
standard error of the mean (or the standard
deviation of the sampling distribution of the
mean) and is computeds by the formula:
sx =
n
Example 3
An electrical company claims that the
lives of the light bulbs it manufactures
are normally distributed with a mean of
1,000 hours and a standard deviation of
150 hours. What can you say about this
claim if a random sample of 100 bulbs
produced by this company has a mean
life of 980 hours? Use a 0.05 level of
significance.
Example 3 (Solution)
Hypothesis:
= The average life of all the bulbs produced by the firm is 1,000
hours (.
= The average life of all the bulbs produced by the firm is not
In
cases where a small sample size is used
and the population standard deviation, s, is
unknown, then the t-test will be used:
x - mo
t= ; df = n - 1
sx
where the denominator represents the
standard error of the mean (or the standard
deviation of the sampling distribution of the
mean) and is computeds by the formula:
sx =
n
Example 4
A random sample of 100 recorded
deaths in the United States during the
past year showed an average life span of
71.8 years, with a standard deviation of
8.9 years. Does this seem to indicate
that the average life span today is
greater than 70 years? Use a 0.05 level
of significance.
Example 4 (Solution)
Hypothesis:
= The average life span today is 70 years (.
= The average life span today is greater than 70 years (.
Level of significance: =0.05, one-tailed test
Test statistic: z statistic
Critical region: Reject if
Computation:
x - mo 71.8-70
z= = = 2.02
s 8.9/ 100
x
Decision: The computed value of z is within the are of
rejection (since 2.02>1.645). Therefore, we must reject ;
that is, we may say that the average life span today is
greater than 70 years.
Example 5
A certain brand of laundry soap is
advertised to have a net weight of 500
grams. If the net weights of a random
sample of 10 boxes are 495, 503, 507,
498, 490, 505, 510, 502, 493, and 506
grams, can it be concluded that the
average net weight of boxes is less than
the advertised amount? Use 0.01 level of
significance.
Example 5 (Solution)
Hypothesis:
= The average net weight of laundry soap is 500 grams
(.
= The average net weight of laundry soap is less than
500 grams (.
Level of significance: =0.01, one-tailed test
Test statistic: t statistic
Critical region: Reject if the computed t, with df=10-1.
10
xi
i =1
Computation: The sample mean
x =
nis
= 500.9 grams
and the sample standard deviation is s=6.61 . Thus,
x - mo 500.9-500
t = = = 0.4306
s 6.61/ 10
x
Example 5 (Solution)
Decision: The computed value of t is
within the area of acceptance (since
0.4306>2.2821). Therefore, we must
accept ; that is, we may say that the
average net weight of the laundry soap is
really 500 grams.
When
we fail to reject the , we never say that
we accept the null hypothesis because we have
not proven that the is true.
The is assumed to be true at the beginning of
the hypothesis-testing procedure.
Failure to attain evidence to reject the in favor
of the does not equate to proove that the is
true.
It merely means that we did not have enough
evidence to reject the and thereby, failed to
reject it.
TESTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO
MEANS
An
instructor wishes to determine which of two
methods of teaching method A or method B is
more effective in teaching a certain concept in
statistics. In a class of 36 students, he used method A
and in another class where there are 40 students, he
used method B. He gave the two classes for the same
examination and obtained the following results:
Method A Method B
Mean 78 70
Standard 4 6
deviation
Is he correct in assuming that Method A is more
effective than Method B? Use .
Example 6 (Solution)
Hypothesis:
x1 - x2 78-70
z = = = 6.90
s12 s 22 4 6 2 2
Decision: We must reject + +may say that method A is
n1 ; nthat is, we
2 36 40
more effective than method B. The average grade of those with
method A is higher than the average grade of those who were
taught with method B.
Example 7
For a sample of 16 Philip light bulbs, the
mean lifetime is 1250 hours with a
standard deviation of 250 hours. For a
sample of Liwanag light bulbs, the mean
lifetime is 1400 hours with a standard
deviation of 300 hours. Use a 0.01 level
of significance to test whether or not
there is a significant difference between
the average lifetimes of the two brands
of light bulbs.
Example 7 (Solution)
Hypothesis:
= There is no significant difference between
the lifetimes of the two brands of light bulbs ().
= There is a significant difference between the
lifetimes of the two brands of light bulbs ().
Level of significance: =0.01, two-tailed test
Test statistic: t statistic with df= 16+12-2=26
Critical region: Reject if the computed t<-
2.779 or if t>2.779 .
Example 7 (Solution)
Computation:
(n1 - 1) s12 + (n2 - 1) s22 (16 - 1)(250) 2 + (12 - 1)(300) 2
sp = = = 272.277
n1 + n2 - 2 16 + 12 - 2
x1 - x2 1250-1400
t = = = 1.443
1 1 1 1
sp + 272.277 +
n1 n2 16 12
Decision: We must accept ; that is, we may say that the
average lifetimes of the two brands of light bulbs are the
same.
Example 8
To determine whether membership in a fraternity
is beneficial or detrimental to ones grades, the
following grade-point averages were collected
over a period of 5 years:
Year
1 2 3 4 5
Fraternity 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.4
Non-fraternity 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.4
Assuming the populations to be normal, test at
the 0.025 level of significance whether
membership in a fraternity is detrimental to
ones grades.
Example 8 (Solution)
Hypothesis:
or
or
Fraterni Non- We
ty fraternity find that =0.5/5,
2.0 2.2 -0.2 0.04 and =0.14142.
2.0 1.9 0.1 0.01 Hence
d -0.1
2.3 2.5 -0.2 0.04 t = s = 0.14142 = -1.58
d
2.1 2.3 -0.2 0.04
n 5
2.4 2.4 0.0 0.00
-0.5 0.13