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Probability
as:
S x, y x y 4
2 2
Events and Complement of Events
For any given experiment, we may be interested in the
occurrence of certain events rather than in the occurrence of a
specific element in the sample space.
For instance, we may be interested in the event A that the
outcome when a die is tossed is divisible by 3. This will occur
if the outcome is an element of the subset A = {3, 6} of the
sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
An event is a subset of a sample space.
To each event we assign a collection of sample points, which
constitute a subset of the sample space. That subset represents
all of the elements for which the event is true.
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset
of all elements of S that are not in A. We denote the
complement of A by the symbol A' or A. A' = {1, 2, 4, 5} in the
above example.
Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive Events
When the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of
the other, they are called mutually exclusive events.
Solution: 2 4 3 5 = 120
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of
these a second operation can be performed in n2 ways, and for
each of the first two a third operation can be performed in n3
ways, and so forth, then the sequence of k operations can be
performed in n1 n2 n3 ........ nk ways.
De Morgans Rule
de Morgan's rule stales that the complement of the union is
equal to the intersection of the respective complements, or the
complement of the intersection is equal to the union of the
respective complements.
i) E1 E2 E3 ,......, En E1 E2 E3 ,......., En
ii) E1 E2 E3 ,......, En E1 E2 E3 ,......., En
Axioms of Probability
1. The probability of an event, denoted hereafter as P(E), will
always be nonnegative, that is, P(E) 0.
2. The probability of a certain event or the sample space S is 1.0;
that is, P(S) = 1.0, or 0 P(E) 1.0.
3. For two mutually exclusive events A and B, the probability of
their union is equal to the summation of their individual
probability. Mathematically, this can be expressed as:
P A B P A PB
Alternatively,
Additive Rule
Additive Rules
Example Problem
Suppose the manufacturers specifications for the length of a
certain type of computer cable are 2000 10 millimeters. In
this industry, it is known that small cable is just as likely to be
defective (not meeting specifications) as large cable. That is,
the probability of randomly producing a cable with length
exceeding 2010 millimeters is equal to the probability of
producing a cable with length smaller than 1990 millimeters.
The probability that the production procedure meets
specifications is known to be 0.99.
a) What is the probability that a cable selected randomly
is too large?
b) What is the probability that a randomly selected cable
is larger than 1990 millimeters?
Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that
some event A has occurred is called a conditional probability
and is denoted by P(B|A).
Consider the event B of getting a perfect square when a die is
tossed. The die is constructed so that the even numbers are
twice as likely to occur as the odd numbers. The probability
of B occurring is 1/3.
Now suppose that it is known that the toss of the die resulted
in a number greater than 3. We are now dealing with a
reduced sample space A = {4, 5, 6}. What is the probability
that B occurs, relative to the space A?
P(B|A) = 2/5, or,
Conditional Probability
Find the probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on time.
Independent Events
and
P( D) P( D | F ) P( F ) P( D | W ) P(W ) P( D | E ) P( E )
The concept represented by this equation is called the theorem of
total probability.
Theorem of Total Probability
The theorem of total probability can be formally presented by the
Venn diagram. The occurrence of event A depends on the
occurrence of other events E1, E2, E3,, En. They are mutually
exclusive (no overlapping), collectively exhaustive (their union
constitutes the entire sample space). P(Ei) > 0, i = 1, 2, 3,.., n.
Theorem of Total Probability
A AS A( E1 E2 E3 ,....,En ) AE1 AE2 AE3 ,...., AEn
The events AEi are also mutually exclusive. From axiom 3,
P( A) P( AE1 AE2 AE3 ,...., AEn )
P( AE1 ) P( AE2 ) ......... P( AEn )
P( A | E1 ) P( E1 ) P( A | E2 ) P( E2 ) ........ P( A | En ) P( En )
n
P( A | Ei ) P( Ei )
i 1
Bayes Theorem
In the context of the theorem of total probability, the probability
of occurrence of an event A is calculated, which depends on other
mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events Ei.
Sometimes it is also of interest to know the probability of an
event Ei given that A has occurred, an inverse problem.
Using the same example considered for the theorem of total
probability, and knowing that the building has been damaged, we
can use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability that the
damage was caused by fire, wind, or earthquake, that is, P(F|D),
P(W|D), or P(E|D).
P ( F D) P ( D | F ) P ( F )
P ( F | D)
P ( D) P ( D)
Bayes Theorem
P( Ei A) P( A | Ei ) P( Ei )
P( Ei | A) n
P( A)
P( A | Ei ) P( Ei )
i 1
Problem
Good performance (obtaining a grade of A+) in this course depends on your
attendance (A) and completion of assignments (C). The probabilities that
you will receive a grade of A+ are 100%, 70%, 50%, and 0%, if you
regularly attend and complete the assignments, if you regularly attend but
do not complete the assignments, if you do not regularly attend but
complete the assignments regularly, and if you neither attend nor complete
assignments, respectively. Further assume that if you attend the class
regularly, there is a 90% probability that you will complete the assignments.
The probability that you will attend the class regularly is 0.95, and the
probability that you will complete the assignments is 0.90.
(a) What is the probability that you will receive an A+ in this class?
(b) If you received an A+, what is the probability that you regularly
attended the class and completed the assignments?