HSD122:Modul#1

3G Market Driver and

Motivation For HSDPA

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 1

Agenda Modul

Trend teknologi
Pergeseran paradigma bisnis
Motivation For HSDPA Deployment
Beberapa Fakta Penting

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 2

Latar Belakang: Trend Teknologi

1. The increasing trend towards a convergence of

different communication services and systems
e.g. mobile comms, Internet, broadcasting, wireless
LANs, etc. with variety of applications, services and
delivery mechanisms
2. The desire by the users to those variety of services
be available, regardless of the means and manner of
delivery.
3. Over the mobile phone should receive voice comms,
data messages, browse the web (with its varying
content, such as information from radio and television
broadcast stations), transmit video, listen to MP3
music, etc

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 3

Trend In Mobile Service
As voice traffic approaches saturation, mobile Internet via GPRS
and UMTS is expected to bring a new growth phase

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 4

Wireless Market Trends

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 5

Environment Analysis :
Menuju . All IP Packet Networks !!
Past : Seper. of Voice & Data Transp. Present : Sep. of V & D Access

Circuit Switch.
Circuit Switch. Circuit Switch.
Circuit Switch. Transp. Capa.
Transp. Capa. Access Capa.
Access Capa.

Packet Switch.
Transp. Capa. Packet Switch. Packet Switch.
Access Capa. Transp. Capa.

xDSL / FTTx

Future : Integration of V & D Access and Transp. Near Future : Integration of V & D Transport

Circuit Switch.
Circuit Switch. Transp. Capa.
Access Capa.

Packet Switch. Packet Switch.

Access Capa. Transp. Capa.
Packet Switch.
Packet Switch.
Transp. Capa.
Access Capa.

VoIP / VToA

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 6

Pergeseran Paradigma

Fixed Phone Mobile Phone

Transport (Pipe line) Content & Application

Narrowband Broadband

Connectivity Dial Up Always On

Smart Network Intelligence User Equipment

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 7

Pergeseran Lingkungan Bisnis Operator

Portal Memenej gateway ke Internet

Penyedia
jasa koneksi Content
dan session Packager/ Menyediakan informasi nilai-tambah
Provider
Mobile Mobile
Operator Operator

Trusted Menyediakan transaksi yang

Penyedia jasa telefoni Partner aman dan terpercaya

Application Menyediakan aplikasi a.l.

Provider akses perusahaan, wireless web access

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 8

Market Strategies And Segmentation

A key element of an UMTS operators strategy therefore, is to decide

what and how to cover the new extended value chain

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 9

Market Strategies And Segmentation..

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 10

Deriving UMTS Revenues

A model is then built and integrated into an overall business plan for
the operator

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 11

The Importance Of Non Voice Revenue

Prepaid offers have enabled operators to address new market

segments, but with APRUs typically ca. 60-70% lower

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 12

The Importance Of Non Voice Revenue

Mobile Internet is expected to reverse the trend of falling ARPU, and

bring new growth to the industry

Untuk kasus Indonesia,

turunnya ARPU adalah
konsekuensi logis dari:
kompetisi (10 operator),
tekanan regulasi, dan
kebutuhan masyarakat
Pasar perlu diperluas:
dengan aplikasi yang
semakin beragam
Pengembangan wilayah
cakupan (luar Jawa)
ada kendala energi dan
infrastruktur
nontelekomunikasi
Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 13
Trends Access Network

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 14

GSM Evolution

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 15

Motivation For HSDPA

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 16

 Kebutuhan Pelanggan..
Kebutuhan pelanggan akan layanan yang bervariasi semakin
meningkat secara masif
Simultaneous
Phone + Internet
Faster Access to Maps, Use
Directions, Directory Enhanced Graphics
Services & Email

Audio and Video

Streaming

Telecommuting

Distance
Learning
Secure Transactions Telewebbing
Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 17
Kebutuhan Akses Dimanapun

Data & Voice Menuju Mobile

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 18

Penambahan Trafik Mobile
50/50 split
in 2007
9 000

8 000 Mobile voice traffic

Fixed voice traffic
7 000
minutes, billion

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000 Komunikasi bergerak mulai bergeser menjadi

kebutuhan dasar
1 000

0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2007 e

Source: Arhur D. Little

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 19
Proporsi Trafik Komunikasi

Komunikasi data
tumbuh
eksponensial
dibandingkan
komunikasi suara
yang cenderung
stagnan

Sumber: Ericsson
Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 20
Era Konvergensi
Entertainment Financial Services

Telecommunication Broadcasting
Game
Voice Music TV
Cable TV
Internet VOD
Satellite TV

IP-TV Interactive TV

Mobile
services

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 21

Source : Samsung
Kebutuhan Kesederhanaan Akses
Berbagai kebutuhan, disediakan oleh jumlah
perangkat yang semakin sedikit (konvergensi
terminal)
Remote
Controller

Camera

Storage Game

Camcorder
MP3P

Audio
Computer TV

Source : Samsung
Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 22
Kesimpulan
Reasons to deploy HSDPA:
Pasar komunikasi suara mulai jenuh secara
global
Meningkatnya kebutuhan user untuk layanan
data (broadband internet access, streaming,
gaming, dll).
Kebutuhan kesederhanaan perangkat akses
Berkembangnya berbagai teknologi akses
wireless kecepatan tinggi
WLAN, WiMAX, 1xEvDo in CDMA 2000

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 23

Beberapa Fakta Penting

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 24

Indonesian Market in the Global Context

Nascent Growth Developed Mature

Increasing Penetration

Singapore Japan
Australia / USA
New UK/ France /
Philippines Zealand Germany
Jabotabek
Central
Thailand
European
Indonesia Countries
India
China

African
Bangladesh
nations Vietnam

Market Supply constrained High growth Slowing growth Mature / no growth

Environment New entrants Stronger competition Intense competition
Increasing competition

Key Meeting demand Speed to market Customer retention Customer retention

Challenges Investment Brand establishment Product innovation Revenue protection
constraint Customer acquisition Customer intimacy New growth
Margin improvement
Selected Access provision Voice growth Fixed to mobile Convergence
Key Trends Voice penetration Broadband and data substitution Triple Play
Coverage increase services take-up Cost orientation Consolidation
NGN / IP technology
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 25

Population

Population % of World Population Expected Pop.

No Country ( 2007 Est. ) Population Growth Rate for year 2050
1 China 1,317,431,495 20.00% 1.10% 1,470,468,924
2 India 1,129,667,528 17.20% 1.70% 1,619,582,271
3 United States 301,967,681 4.60% 0.80% 403,943,147
4 Indonesia 224,481,720 3.40% 1.80% 337,807,011
5 Brazil 186,771,161 2.80% 1.40% 206,751,477
6 Pakistan 167,806,831 2.60% 2.60% 267,813,495
7 Nigeria 162,082,868 2.50% 2.60% 303,586,770
8 Russia 143,406,042 2.20% 0.50% 118,233,243
9 Bangladesh 137,493,990 2.10% 1.10% 205,093,861
10 Japan 128,646,345 2.00% 0.10% 101,228,471
Top 10 Country 3,899,755,661 59.30% - 5,034,508,670
Remain Country 2,674,910,756 40.70% - 4,049,986,735
World Population 6,574,666,417 100.00% 1.10% 9,084,495,405

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPASumber: www.internetworldstats.com 26

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 27
 Asia Internet Usage & Population

ASIA INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION

ASIA Population Internet Users, Penetration (%) Users Use Growth
( 2007 Est.) Latest Data (% Population) in Asia ( 2000-2007 )
Korea, North 23,510,379 -- -- -- n/a %
Hong Kong * 7,150,254 4,878,713 68.20% 1.10% 113.70%
Japan 128,646,345 86,300,000 67.10% 19.80% 83.30%
Korea, South 51,300,989 34,120,000 66.50% 7.80% 79.20%
Singapore 3,654,103 2,421,800 66.30% 0.60% 101.80%
Taiwan 23,001,442 14,500,000 63.00% 3.30% 131.60%
Malaysia 28,294,120 13,528,200 47.80% 3.10% 265.60%
Macao* 500,631 201,000 40.10% 0.00% 235.00%
Brunei Darussalem 403,500 135,000 33.50% 0.00% 350.00%
Vietnam 85,031,436 16,511,849 19.40% 3.80% 8155.90%
Philippines 87,236,532 14,000,000 16.00% 3.20% 600.00%
Thailand 67,249,456 8,420,000 12.50% 1.90% 266.10%
China 1,317,431,495 162,000,000 12.30% 37.10% 620.00%
Mongolia 2,601,641 268,300 10.30% 0.10% 794.30%
Indonesia 224,481,720 20,000,000 8.90% 4.60% 900.00%
Azerbaijan 8,448,260 678,800 8.00% 0.20% 5556.70%
Pakistan 167,806,831 12,000,000 7.20% 2.70% 8861.90%
Maldives 303,732 20,100 6.60% 0.00% 235.00%
Uzbekistan 26,607,252 1,745,000 6.60% 0.40% 23166.70%
Georgia 4,389,004 271,400 6.20% 0.10% 1257.00%
Armenia 2,950,060 161,000 5.50% 0.00% 436.70%
Kyrgystan 5,436,608
Sumber: www.internetworldstats.com 280,000 5.20% 0.10% 442.60%
Kazakhstan 14,653,998 609,200 4.20% 0.10% 770.30%
India 1,129,667,528 42,000,000
Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 3.70% 9.60% 740.00% 28
Bhutan 812,184 25,000 3.10% 0.00% 4900.00%
Pertumbuhan Pelanggan Telekomunikasi Indonesia

Pertumbuhan Pelanggan Telekomunikasi di Indonesia

250,000,000.00
Jumlah
Penduduk

Total
200,000,000.00
Jumlah Pelanggan

Fixed
Cable
150,000,000.00
FWA

100,000,000.00 Celluler

50,000,000.00

-
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 29

Kesimpulan: Fakta-Fakta Penting

+ Potensi pasar telekomunikasi di Indonesia masih

sangat besar dan terus tumbuh
+ Pasar komunikasi data tumbuh lebih pesat
dibandingkan komunikasi suara
+ Komunikasi data bergeser dari ruang akses publik
ke ruang pribadi (warnet laptop pribadi)

- Pasar terkonsentrasi di Jawa perluasan jaringan

ke luar Jawa terkendala penurunan tarif dan
kurangnya infrastruktur pendukung
- Aplikasi & konten terbatas masih perlu
pengembangan aplikasi yang beragam dan
bermanfaat bagi kemajuan bangsa

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 30

 Merci bien
Arigatoo
Matur Nuwun
Hatur Nuhun
Matur se Kelangkong
Syukron
Kheili Mamnun
Danke
TerimaKasih

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 31

Supplemen Modul #1

Data Terkini Telekomunikasi

Indonesia

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 32

Data-Data Telekomunikasi Indonesia (1)

Telepon Tetap Kabel (PSTN)

Perkembangan Jumlah Pelanggan Telepon Kabel dan
Pertumbuhannya

10,000,000 14.0%

9,000,000
12.0%
8,000,000
10.0%
7,000,000
Jumlah Pelanggan

Pertumbuhan (%)
8.0%
6,000,000

5,000,000 6.0%

4,000,000
4.0%
3,000,000
2.0%
2,000,000
0.0%
1,000,000

- -2.0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Fixed Cable Pertumbuhan

Sumber: diolah dari annual report

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 33
33
Data-Data Telekomunikasi Indonesia (2)

Telepon Tetap Nirkabel (FWA)

Perkembangan Jumlah Pelanggan FWA dan
Pertumbuhannya

25,000,000 350.0%
300.0%
Jumlah Pelanggan

20,000,000

Pertumbuhan (%)
250.0%
15,000,000 200.0%

10,000,000 150.0%
100.0%
5,000,000
50.0%
- 0.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pelanggan FWA Pertumbuhan

Sumber: diolah dari annual report Pendaftaran Batas akhir kebijakan

pra bayar pendaftaran pra bayar

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 34

Data-Data Telekomunikasi Indonesia (3)

Telepon Seluler
Perkembangan Jumlah Pelanggan Seluler dan
Pertumbuhannya

160,000,000 300.0%

140,000,000
250.0%
120,000,000
Jumlah Pelanggan

Pertumbuhan (%)
200.0%
100,000,000

80,000,000 150.0%

60,000,000
100.0%
40,000,000
50.0%
20,000,000

- 0.0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Seluler Pertumbuhan

Sumber: diolah dari annual report Batas akhir kebijakan

Pendaftaran pra bayar pendaftaran pra bayar
Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 35
Data-Data Telekomunikasi Indonesia (4)

Jumlah total pelanggan telekomunikasi

Perkembangan Jumlah Pelanggan Telekomunikasi
dan Pertumbuhannya

180,000,000 60.0%

160,000,000
50.0%
140,000,000
Jumlah Pelanggan

Pertumbuhan (%)
120,000,000 40.0%

100,000,000
30.0%
80,000,000

60,000,000 20.0%

40,000,000
10.0%
20,000,000

- 0.0%
97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08
19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
TOTAL PERTUMBUHAN

Sumber: diolah dari annual report

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 36

36
 End Of Modul #1

Modul 1 - 3G Market Driver and Motivation For HSDPA 37