Sustainable Energy For All

UN Public Lecture
Climate Change and Sustainable Energy For All

Chairman, Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
R. K. Pachauri
28 June 2014, New Delhi, India
Sustainable development is
development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the
ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.
Sustainable Energy For All - Background
Energy enables.
Energy lies at the heart of all countries core

interests, including:
job creation
economic development
security concerns
full empowerment of women
In September 2011, UN Secretary General

launched the SE4ALL initiative.
All spheres of society (business, government,

civil society, community groups, academia etc.)
to make sustainable energy for all a reality by
2030 by working in partnership.
Source : ttp://www.se4all.org/ 3
Sustainable Energy for All the challenges
Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and
an environment that allows the world to thrive ~ UNSG Ban Ki Moon
Energy access Climate change
Nearly 1 in 5 on the planet lacks Where modern energy services

access to electricity are plentiful, the problem is:
Almost 3 billion people rely on waste and pollution
wood, coal, charcoal or animal Anthropogenic emissions are
waste for cooking and heating contributing to climate change
This is a major barrier to This has impacts on lives,
eradicating poverty and building communities, infrastructure,
shared prosperity institutions and budgets
Climate change impacts the
poor first and worst
Sustainable Energy for All
Achieving the three objectives together will maximize development benefits and help
stabilize climate change over the long run. The objectives are complementary.
The key to both challenges is to

provide sustainable energy for all.
SE4ALL is focused on attaining 3
objectives:
Ensure universal access to modern

energy services
Double the share of renewable

energy in the global energy mix
Double the global rate of

improvement in energy efficiency
Sustainable Energy For All
To make the vision of Sustainable Energy for All actionable, the three core objectives
have been disaggregated into 11 Action Areas
The 11 Action Areas address almost 95% of global energy consumption, key components of
productive energy use, and the supporting mechanisms needed.
6
Source : SE4ALL, A Global Action Agenda
Sustainable Energy for All
Opportunities
Sustainable energy creates new

opportunities:
Enables businesses to grow
Generates jobs
Creates new markets
Children can study after dark
Clinics can store life-saving vaccines
Countries can grow more resilient,

competitive economies.
7
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD
Greenhouse gases
Limiting climate change will require sustained and substantial reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions
Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued

to increase over 1970 to 2010 (highest in human
history from 2000 to 2010)
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and

industrial processes contributed about 78 % of the
total GHG emission increase from 1970 to 2010
About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2

emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred
in the last 40 years
In baseline scenarios, direct CO2 emissions from

the energy supply sector are projected to double or
triple by 2050 compared to 2010, unless energy
intensity improvements can be significantly
accelerated.
9
Source : IPCC AR5
Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Human influence of the climate system is clear
95% certainty that human influence has been the dominant cause
of the observed warming since the mid-20th century
Since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are

unprecedented over decades to millennia.
Human influence has been detected in warming of the

atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water
cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level
rise, and in changes in some climate extremes
Source : IPCC AR5 10

Observed changes in the climate system
Climate change is unequivocal
The oceans have warmed and risen
The amounts of snow and ice have

diminished
Sea level has risen
The concentrations of greenhouse

gases have increased

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased
The atmospheric concentrations

of CO2, methane, and nitrous
oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the past
800,000 years.
The ocean has absorbed ~30% of

the emitted anthropogenic
carbon dioxide, causing ocean
acidification.

Trends in GHGs and their drivers
Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from
2000 to 2010
Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors
Globally, economic and

population growth continue
to be the most important
drivers of increases in CO2
emissions from fossil fuel
combustions
These are expected to

continue to drive emissions
growth without additional
efforts to reduce GHG
emissions.

Extreme events during and by the end of the 21st Century
It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or

intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over
most land areas
Under some scenarios, a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely

to become a 1-in-2 year event in most regions
It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the

proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase
over many areas of the globe
Source : IPCC SREX

Future risks of climate change in Asia
Water scarcity is expected to be a major

challenge due to increased water demand
and lack of good management
Higher temperatures can lead to lower rice

yields. A number of regions are already
near the heat stress limits for rice.
Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas

and especially affect rice growing regions.
Coastal and marine systems are under

increasing stress from climatic and non-
climatic drivers
Damage to coral reefs will increase during

the 21st century as a result of ocean
warming and acidification.

Future risks of climate change in Asia
Adverse effects on the

sustainable development
capabilities of most Asian
developing countries by
aggravating pressures on
natural resources and the
environment.
Increasing impact of extreme

events on human health,
security, livelihoods, and
poverty, with the type and
magnitude of impact varying
across Asia.

Abrupt and irreversible impacts
Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2
are stopped.
Sustained mass loss by ice sheets

(some of which irreversible) would
cause larger sea level rise.
Sustained warming greater than some

threshold (greater than about 1C but
less than about 4C global mean
warming with respect to pre-
industrial) would lead to the near-
complete loss of the Greenland ice
sheet over a millennium or more,
causing a global mean sea level rise of
up to 7 m.

Implications for sustainable development
Limits to resilience are faced when thresholds or tipping points associated with social
and/or natural systems are exceeded, posing severe challenges for adaptation.
The interactions among

climate change mitigation,
adaptation, and disaster risk
management may have a
major influence on resilient
and sustainable pathways.
Interactions between the goals

of mitigation and adaptation
will play out locally, but have
global consequences.
Source : IPCC SREX 18

Adaptation and Mitigation
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Climate-resilient pathways
combine adaptation and
mitigation to reduce climate
change and its impacts. Since
mitigation reduces the rate
and magnitude of warming,
it also increases the time
available for adaptation to a
particular level of climate
change, potentially by
several decades.

EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
There are strategies that can help manage disaster risk now and
also help improve peoples livelihoods and well-being
The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near
term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term

Effective risk management and adaptation are tailored to local and
regional needs and circumstances
Changes in climate extremes vary across regions

Each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards
Effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and
vulnerability
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE MITIGATION
Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
Delaying additional mitigation further increases mitigation costs in the
medium to long term
GDP
Loss in global
GDP without consumption
mitigation Loss in in 2100: 4.8%
global (median)
consumption
in 2050:
Loss in global 3.4%
consumption (median)
GDP with stringent in 2030: 1.7%
mitigation (reaching (median)
450 ppm CO2eq in
2100)
Current 2030 2050 2100 Time

Stringent mitigation scenarios
Characteristics of scenarios reaching levels of about 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 (likely
chance to keep temperature change below 2C relative to preindustrial levels):
Lower global GHGs in 2050 than in 2010 (40% to 70% lower

globally)
Emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below in 2100
More rapid improvements in energy efficiency
A tripling to nearly a quadrupling of the share of zero- and low-
carbon energy supply from renewables by 2050
Nuclear energy, biomass and fossil energy with CCS, and BECCS
by the year 2050

CDR technologies
Many scenarios
reaching 450, 500 and
550 ppm CO2eq by 2100
Require availability and

widespread
deployment of BECCS
and afforestation post
2050
But the availability and scale of these and other CDR technologies are uncertain and
associated with challenges and risks.

Mitigation opportunities in the energy supply sector
Decarbonization of electricity generation
Renewable energy technologies
Nuclear energy could make an increasing

contribution to low-carbon energy
supply, but a variety of barriers and risks
exist
Replacement of world average coal-fired

power plants with modern natural gas
combined-cycle power plants
CCS and BECCS, but entail challenges

and risks

Mitigation opportunities in the energy end-use sectors
Industry Transport Buildings
Wide-scale upgrading and Technical and behavioral Adoption of very low

innovation mitigation measures building codes for new
Replacement and (energy efficiency and buildings
deployment of best vehicle performance
available technologies improvements) Retrofits for existing
Information programmes buildings
Infrastructure and urban
to promote energy
redevelopment
efficiency Lifestyle, culture and
investments (more
Efficiency in material use, behavior influence energy
compact urban form that
recycling and waste consumption in buildings
supports cycling and
reduction
walking, high-speed rail
Collaborative approaches
systems)
across companies and
sectors

RE costs are still higher than existing energy prices but in various
settings RE is already competitive.
Source : IPCC SRREN

29
Co-benefits and adverse side effects
There is an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase
co-benefits and reduce adverse side-effects.
The intersections of mitigation and adaptation with other

societal goals, if well managed, can strengthen the basis
for undertaking climate action:
Improved energy efficiency and security
Cleaner energy sources
Air quality and human health
Reduced energy and water consumption in urban areas
Sustainable agriculture and forestry
Protection of ecosystems for carbon storage

Climate change and sustainable development
Governing a transition toward an effective climate response and SD pathway is a
challenge involving rethinking our relation to nature.
A stable climate is one component

of SD.
Limiting the effects of climate

change is necessary to achieve SD
and equity, including poverty
eradication.
Designing an effective climate policy

involves mainstreaming climate in
the design of SD strategies.
Options for equitable burden-

sharing can reduce the potential for
the costs of climate action to
constrain development.

LaBL
Source : IPCC
LIGHTING A BILLION LIVES
We commit to enable a billion lives to access light from solar technologies
1.3 billion people lack access to electricity
360 million live in India
2.2 billion litres of kerosene burnt each

year for lighting
About 5.5 tonnes CO2 emitted to the

atmosphere by burning kerosene for this
Source : TERI
Lighting a Billion Lives
Gobindarampur: a village benefiting from the campaign
Bani and her friends run and

maintain the charging station
Solar lanterns are used in livelihood

Solar lanterns have helped families activities such as betel leaf cultivation,
in their daily activities coaching centres, and shops
Source : TERI 34
A technological society has two choices.
First it can wait until catastrophic failures
expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and
self-deceptions
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks
and balances to correct for systemic
distortion prior to catastrophic failures.
- Mahatma Gandhi
Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the

wrong direction
- Mahatma Gandhi

Sustainable Energy For All

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originaltitel

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Sustainable Energy For All

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

UN Public Lecture

Climate Change and Sustainable Energy For All

Energy lies at the heart of all countries core

In September 2011, UN Secretary General

All spheres of society (business, government,

Energy access Climate change

Nearly 1 in 5 on the planet lacks Where modern energy services

The key to both challenges is to

Ensure universal access to modern

Double the share of renewable

Double the global rate of

Sustainable energy creates new

Enables businesses to grow

Creates new markets

Children can study after dark

Clinics can store life-saving vaccines

Countries can grow more resilient,

Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and

About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2

In baseline scenarios, direct CO2 emissions from

Human influence of the climate system is clear

Since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are

Human influence has been detected in warming of the

Source : IPCC AR5 10

Climate change is unequivocal

The oceans have warmed and risen

The amounts of snow and ice have

Sea level has risen

The concentrations of greenhouse

Source : IPCC AR5 11

The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased

The atmospheric concentrations

The ocean has absorbed ~30% of

Source : IPCC AR5 12

Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors

Globally, economic and

These are expected to

Source : IPCC AR5 13

It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or

Under some scenarios, a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely

It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the

Source : IPCC SREX

Water scarcity is expected to be a major

Higher temperatures can lead to lower rice

Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas

Coastal and marine systems are under

Damage to coral reefs will increase during

Source : IPCC AR5 15

Adverse effects on the

Increasing impact of extreme

Source : IPCC AR5 16

Sustained mass loss by ice sheets

Sustained warming greater than some

Source : IPCC AR5 17

The interactions among

Interactions between the goals

Source : IPCC SREX 18

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Source : IPCC AR5 19

Source : IPCC SREX 21

Changes in climate extremes vary across regions

Current 2030 2050 2100 Time