Probability

Formal study of uncertainty

The engine that drives statistics

1
 Introduction
Nothing in life is certain
We estimate the chances of successful
outcomes in business, medicine, weather, and
other everyday situations

2
 Approaches to Probability
Relative frequency
event probability = x/n,
where x=# of occurrences of event of interest,
n=total # of observations

3
 Approaches to Probability (cont.)
Subjective probability
individual assigns prob. based on personal
experience, anecdotal evidence, etc.
Classical approach
every possible outcome has equal probability
(more later)

4
 Basic Definitions (cont.)
Sample space: all possible outcomes of an
experiment. Denoted by S
Event: any subset of the sample space S;
typically denoted A, B, C, etc.
Simple event: event with only 1 outcome
Null event: the empty set F
Certain event: S

5
 Laws of Probability
Rules:

1. 0 P ( A) 1, for any event A

2. P (F ) 0, P ( S ) 1

Example: Surgery outcomes

={success, failure}

6
 Laws of Probability (cont.)
3. P(A) = 1 - P(A)
For an event A, A is the complement of A; A
is everything in S that is not in A.

S
A'
A

7
 Unions and Intersections
Union and intersection representation

S A

A B

8
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive events-no outcomes from S
in common

A =
S
A
B

9
 Laws of Probability (cont.)
Addition Rule for Disjoint Events:

4. If A and B are disjoint events, then

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

10
 Independent events
5. For two independent events A and B
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)

11
 Laws of Probability (cont.)
General Addition Rule

6. For any two events A and B

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

12
P(AB)=P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

S A

A B

13
 Laws of Probability: Summary
1. 0 P(A) 1 for any event A
2. P() = 0, P(S) = 1
3. P(A) = 1 P(A)
4. If A and B are disjoint events, then
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
5. If A and B are independent events, then
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
6. For any two events A and B,
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
7. P(A|B)=P(A B) /P(B)

14
 Females in army
A survey of 100 people was conducted to see if women in army should be
permitted to participate in combat.

Yes No Total
Male 32 50
Female 42
Total
Find the probability that a female agrees to participate in combat?
Find the probability that a male agrees to participate in combat?

15
 Example (Cont.)
P(Y|F)=P(Y and F)/P(F)=(8/100)/(50/100)
=0.16

P(Y|M)=P(Y and M)/P(M)=(32/100)/(50/100)

=32/50=0.64

16
 Assigning Probabilities
If an experiment has N outcomes, then each
outcome has probability 1/N of occurring

If an event A1 has n1 outcomes, then

P(A1) = n1/N

17
 Efficient Methods for Counting
Outcomes
Factorial Notation:
n!=nx(n-1)x(n-2)x..x2x1
Examples
1!=1;
2!=2x1=2;
3!=3x2x1=6;
4!=24;
5!=120;
Special definition: 0!=1

18
 Permutations
A B C D E
How many ways can we choose 2 letters from
the above 5, without replacement, when the
order in which we choose the letters is
important?
5 4 = 20

19
 Permutations (cont.)
Permutations:
5! 5!
5 4 20 5 4
(5 2)! 3!
5!
Notation : 5 P2 20
(5 2)!

20
 Combinations
A B C D E
How many ways can we choose 2 letters from
the above 5, without replacement, when the
order in which we choose the letters is not
important?
5 4 = 20 when order important
Divide by 2: (5 4)/2 = 10 ways

21
 Combinations (cont.)
Calculation:

5! 5 4 20

5
2 5 C2
5!
10
(5 2)!2! 3!2! 1 2 2

n
r n Cr
n!
(n r )! r!

22
 Probability Trees

A Graphical Method for Complicated

Probability Problems

23
 Example: AIDS Testing
V={person has HIV}; CDC: P(V)=.006
+: test outcome is positive (test indicates
HIV present)
-: test outcome is negative
clinical reliabilities for a new HIV test:
1. If a person has the virus, the test result will be
positive with probability .999
2. If a person does not have the virus, the test
result will be negative with probability .990
24
 Question 1
What is the probability that a randomly
selected person will test positive?

25
 Probability Tree Approach

A probability tree is a useful way to visualize

this problem and to find the desired
probability.

26
 Probability Tree
clinical
reliability

clinical
reliability
27
 Probability Tree
clinical Multiply
reliability branch probs

clinical
reliability
28
 Question 1 Answer
What is the probability that a randomly
selected person will test positive?
P(+) = .00599 + .00994 = .01593

29
 Question 2
If your test comes back positive, what is the
probability that you have HIV?
(Remember: we know that if a person has
the virus, the test result will be positive with
probability .999; if a person does not have
the virus, the test result will be negative with
probability .990).
Looks very reliable

30
 Question 2 Answer
Answer
two sequences of branches lead to positive
test; only 1 sequence represented people who
have HIV.
P(person has HIV given that test is positive)
=.00599/(.00599+.00994) = .376

31
 Summary
Question 1:
P(+) = .00599 + .00994 = .01593
Question 2: two sequences of branches lead
to positive test; only 1 sequence represented
people who have HIV.
P(person has HIV given that test is positive)
=.00599/(.00599+.00994) = .376

32
 Review
We have a test with very high clinical reliabilities:
1. If a person has the virus, the test result will be positive
with probability .999
2. If a person does not have the virus, the test result will be
negative with probability .990
But we have extremely poor performance when
the test is positive:
P(person has HIV given that test is positive) =.376
In other words, 62.4% of the positives are false
positives! Why?
When the characteristic the test is looking for is
rare, many positives might be false.
33
 Exercise: Nightlights and Myopia
Assuming these data are representative of a larger
population, what is the approximate probability
that someone from that population who sleeps
with a nightlight in early childhood
will develop some degree of myopia?