2 views

Uploaded by cons the

Ft Mba Section 4a Probability Sva

- Binomial
- Chapter 2
- Lecture 15
- Probability of Collision of Random Inertial Particles With a Flat Wall
- Homework
- Class2 Charts
- Probability Distribution MP
- Introduction 2
- 5
- stat151_class1
- 12-Maths-Exemplar-Chapter-13.pdf
- Introduction 1
- Stat 130 Module 1 b Slides
- Statistics and Probability
- c1l1exploring Random Variables (l1)-1
- Chapter 8
- Learning Unit 9
- 11_stoch
- MS-8-jun-2010
- 2018 Exam p Syllabi

You are on page 1of 38

Distributions

Section four

Reading: Silver pp.150-154, 163-180.

1

Paul, the Psychic Octopus?

Born Sea Life Centre, January

2008 Weymouth, died 26th

October 2010 Oberhausen.

predicted 4 / 6 Germany games.

results including Netherland vs.

Spain, & all 7 Germany games.

Introduction to Probability

Obtain an appreciation of the role probability information

can play in managerial decision-making.

Should a salesman accept a flat-fee or commission?

Ehrenberg: brand market share law of double jeopardy.

Will changes to service delivery improve customer satisfaction?

will occur. It involves measuring uncertainty.

Probability is also used in statistical inference what does

the sample data tell us about the whole population?

Zero = outcome is impossible; 1 = it is a certainty.

Sometimes expressed as percentages or odds: 2 to 1.

3

ScotlandDNA and the Red Hair Gene

Only 1-2% of worlds population

has red hair but 13% (650k) of

Scots do.

Could be as many as 1.6m red-hair

gene carries.

Physical colouring is a mixture of

black and red/yellow melanin but

pigmentation protein MCR1 is

disrupted and black melanin is

suppressed.

Result - fair skin and red hair.

4

Sources of Probabilities

#1 Subjective approach

Based on personal assessment, expresses our beliefs.

Wales are 65% likely to beat Samoa in rugby.

A criminal is 90% likely to re-offend.

Views can differ, so dont try to be too precise.

Be careful that the probabilities sum to 1 not automatic!

Based on empirical evidence.

BMW breaking down within 60,000 miles, 3 year guarantee.

Taste test for three new blends of coffee.

Relative frequency the proportion of times the outcome has

occurred over many repetitions.

5

Sources of Probabilities (2)

#3 Classical (a priori) approach

All outcomes are equally likely.

Each outcome has a 1/n chance (n = number of outcomes)

Flip a coin; 2 outcomes; P(head) = 1 / 2

Roll a dice; 6 outcomes; P(roll a 3) = 1 / 6

Probability = Number of total possible outcomes

are often obtained by combining (a) classical or empirical

estimates with those of (b) managerial judgment.

6

Probability: Some Key Words

An Experiment: an action/process with a well defined set

of outcomes. On any single repetition (trial), one and only 1

of the possible outcomes will occur (e.g., roll a dice).

Element: a specific outcome.

S = {H, T}

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Event: subset of the sample space. It may be a specific

outcome or combination of outcomes.

Rolling a dice (number = 3)

Rolling a dice (number is divisible by 3)

7

Events and their Probabilities

Probability of an Event: = sum of the probabilities of all the

elements that make up the event.

Example: 223 customers of a stationary supplier settle their

accounts every 1 or 3 months, using card, cheque or cash.

1 month 15 52 10 77

3 month 18 108 20 146

Col. Tot 33 160 30 223

P(Pay by cheque) = P(cheque, 1 month) + P(cheque, 3 month)

= (52 + 108) / 223 = 160 / 223 = 0.72

8

Combining Events: Addition Rules

There are four rules of probability, two each with a specific

and a general case. The trick is how to combine them.

interested in the probability of event A OR event B (or both).

But are the two events mutually exclusive? [Or do they

have any elements in common - happen at the same time?]

Example: P(Roll a die; get a 2 or 3) = P(2) + P(3) = 2 / 6.

NO: General Rule. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)

Example: P(Quit job because of poor pay, poor conditions, or both).

9

Customer Accounts: Addition Rules

Lets return to the customer accounts example.

1 month 15 52 10 77

3 month 18 108 20 146

Col.Tot 33 160 30 223

P(Pay by CC or monthly) = (33 + 77 15) /223 = 95/223 = 0.43

Elements common to both events are double counted and must

be subtracted (not mutually exclusive - happen at same time)

10

Combining Events Multiplication Rules

Multiplication (AND) Rule. With two events A and B, we

are interested in the probability of event A AND event B.

But are the two events independent? [Or is the chance of

event B influenced by knowing that event A has happened?]

80% of drivers pay by credit card (CC). What is the chance

that the next two drivers will both pay by credit card?

Let A = Driver 1 pays by CC; B = Driver 2 pays by CC

Events are independent as driver 1s decision does not influence

driver 2s decision.

P(A and B) = 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64.

11

Multiplication Rule Cont.

But are the two events independent?

NO: General Rule. P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A).

P(B|A) is the conditional probability of event B given that event

A has already occurred.

women. What is the chance 2 women are selected for further

psychometric tests? (sampling without replacement).

Event A = person 1 is female; B = person 2 is female.

Events are dependent as the chance of the second person being female

depends on whether the first person selected was female.

P(A) = 3/5, and P(B|A) = 2/4.

P(A AND B) = P(A) x P(B|A) = (3/5) x (2/4) = 6/20 = 0.30

12

Summary of Basic Probability Rules

Specific General

P(A) OR P(B) Mutually Exc: Yes Mutually Exc: No

P(A) AND P(B) Independent: Yes Independent: No

But which Multiplication Rule? Are the events independent?

13

What is a Random Variable?

It is a numerical description of the outcomes of an experiment.

Think of it as a quantity whose value is not fixed, but which can

take on different values from one trial to the next.

Flip 5 coins and count the number of heads.

The amount of rainfall in Cardiff on a particular day.

Number of people queuing at a supermarket checkout.

Continuous r.v.: can take on any value within a range.

Weight, time, distance travelled on a tank of petrol.

Discrete (Continuous) r.v.: the number of outcomes (not)

are countable or (in)finite.

14

Some Examples of Random Variables

What are the outcomes to the following experiments? Are they

continuous or discrete random variables?

r.v. = number of correct answers; discrete (0 to 20).

r.v. = volume of oil (millilitres); continuous (0 x max. capacity)

r.v. = number of calls received per hour / day; discrete.

r.v. = time between calls received; continuous.

15

Probability Distributions

A probability distribution is a listing of all the possible outcomes

(values) of an experiment together with the chance of occurring.

It gives the probability of each value of a random variable.

(Strictly speaking, these definitions apply more to discrete distributions).

Examples: Binomial and Poisson.

Continuous distributions have an infinite number of values.

Examples: Normal and Exponential

statistical formulae.

16

Scaramanga Motors, Bath

The number of sales by a local car dealer based on the last 312

(6 x 52) trading days is a discrete random variable.

30 days made zero sales; P(X = 0) = 30 / 312 = 0.096

On a typical day, most likely to make two sales; P(X = 2) = 0.471

Chance of making four or more sales; P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) = 0.08.

Outcomes are mutually exclusive, so the probabilities sum to 1.

Probability Distribution

0 30 0.096

Modal

1 70 0.224 0.5

Frequency

value

Relative

2 147 0.471

0.3

3 40 0.128

4 15 0.048 0.0

5 10 0.032 0 1 2 3 4 5

312 1.000

17

The Binomial Distribution

Arises in many real world situations:

Example: flipping coins, airline meals, sales-force compensation.

It is appropriate when there are n identical trials, and we

want to know the probability of getting x successes.

Assumptions:

The n trials should be identical.

Each trial has two outcomes: success and failure.

The trials should be independent.

The probability of success (p) is constant for each trial.

18

A Simple Binomial Experiment

A coin is flipped 3 times. A head is defined as a success.

The number of successes is a random variable, range 0 to 3.

There are 8 possible outcomes (no. of heads in brackets):

TTT(0),

HTT, THT, TTH (1)

HHT, HTH, THH (2),

HHH (3)

Probability Distribution

X 0 1 2 3

P(X = x) 0.1250 0.3750 0.3750 0.1250

19

The Binomial Formula

In a binomial scenario the random variable (X) of interest is

the number of trials that are successes.

To calculate the probability of x successes in n trials, we

simply substitute into the formula:

n! n x

x

P( x _ successes ) p (1 p)

(n x)! x!

of getting x successes Probability of Probability of

from n trials x successes n x failures

20

Applying the Binomial Formula

Example: Imagine flipping a biased coin (51% chance of heads)

three times, what is the probability of getting two heads?

Solution: Apply binomial formula with n = 3, p = 0.51, x = 2.

n! x n x

P( X x) p (1 p)

(n x)! x!

This could occur if the first and second coins are heads (HHT)

This occurs with the probability 0.51 x 0.51 x 0.49

Or 0.512 x 0.491 = 0.127 (if unbiased = 0.125, 1 in 8 chance)

21

Combination or Choose Function

n!

The first part of the binomial formula:

(n x)! x!

is known as the choose function. It shows the number of

ways of choosing x objects from a collection of n objects.

Check your calculator, look for nCx or nCx or n .

x

Example:

With 3 coins, how many ways are there of choosing 2 heads?

n! 3! 3 x 2 x1

3

( n x)! x! (3 2)!2! 1x 2 x1

Aside: How many ways can I choose 6 lottery balls from 49?

22

Putting the Binomial Together

Returning to our biased coin example (51% heads), what is

the probability of exactly two heads from three flips?

Solution: Binomial formula with n = 3, p = 0.51, and x = 2.

n! x n x

P( X x) p (1 p)

(n x)! x!

3! 1

P ( X 2) 1 0.51)

2

(3 2)!2! 0.51 (

= 3 x 0.2601 x 0.49 = 0.3823

2 successes in 3 trials successes failure

23

Points to Remember

When Using the Binomial Formula

n! denotes the factorial function

n! = 1 x 2 x 3 x . x (n-1) x n

p0 = 1, also p1 = p

24

The Travelling Salesman

Q: A sales rep has observed that 1 in 5 potential customers he

visits makes a purchase. He visits on average 5 customers

per working day. What is the probability that he makes:

(i) Exactly 1 sale?

(ii) Less than 2 sales?

Solution to (i)

This is a binomial situation where n = 5, x = 1, and p = 0.2

10.2) 0.4096

5! 4

P( x 1)

1

(5 1)!1! 0.2 (

success in 5 trials success failures

25

The Cumulative Binomial Probability

Sometimes we dont want the probability of getting exactly x

successes, but the chance of getting x successes or more

(or x successes or less).

In this case, we simply add up all component probabilities.

probability of zero OR one customers making a purchase.

P(x < 2) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1)

10.2) 0.3277

5! 5

P( x 0)

0

(5 0)!0! 0.2 (

P(x < 2) = 0.41 + 0.33 = 0.74

26

Graphical Illustration: Probability that

At Least 3 Customers Make a Purchase

0.45 At least 3 =

0.4 1 [P(0)+P(1)+P(2)]

0.35

0.3

Probability

0.25

0.2 At least 3 =

0.15 P(3) +P(4) + P(5)

0.1

0.05

0

0 1 2 3 4 5

27

Some More Binomial Distributions

Prob. of success = 0.2 Prob. of success = 0.5

0.45 0.35

0.4

0.3

0.35

0.25

0.3

Probability

Probability

0.25 0.2

0.2 0.15

0.15

0.1

0.1

0.05

0.05

0 0

0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5

0.45 0.7

0.4 0.6

0.35

0.5

0.3

Probability

Probability

0.25 0.4

0.2 0.3

0.15

0.2

0.1

0.05 0.1

0 0

0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5

28

The Poisson Distribution

Useful for estimating the number of occurrences of an event

(X) within a specific interval (e.g., time, distance, area).

0 End

Occurrence of goals in

90 minutes football match

AT&T and other leading retailers!

Useful for approximating the Binomial when n is large and p is

small (beyond this course).

29

The Poisson Distribution

Two properties / assumptions must be satisfied:

interval. The event occurs at the same average rate throughout

the interval.

Example: if the average number of goals in a football match is 2.8,

then the average number of goals in half a football match is 1.4.

the number of events that occur in any other non-overlapping

interval.

Example: the number of calls received at an office in the first hour does

not influence the number of calls received in the second hour.

30

Poisson or Binomial Distributions?

Which of the following problems are best described by a

Poisson or Binomial probability distribution? The number of

Times lightning flashes in a day in July?

Patients admitted to an A & E department on Friday night?

Vegetarian meals required on a 20 seater executive jet?

31

The Poisson Distribution Formula

If is the average number of times the event is expected

to occur in the interval, then the probability of the event

actually occurring x times in the interval is:

x

e Check your

P( X )

x! Calculators!

Where e is a constant, such that e = 2.7183

If e is raised to the power 2, e2 = 7.3891

But here e is raised to a negative power, e- = 1 / e

So if e is raised to the power 2, e-2 = 1 / 7.3891 = 0.1353

32

It Only Takes A Second

Example: If the average number of goals scored during a 90

minute football match is 2.8, what is the probability exactly 5

goals will be scored during a game?

e x x

2.8 e 2.8

P( X x)

x! x!

5 2.8

2.8 e 172.10 * 0.0608

P( X 5) 0.0872

5! 120

Solution: The number of goals is the random variable. We are

interested in the chance of exactly 5 goals being scored (x = 5)

when on average () 2.8 goals are scored. Answer: 9 in 100.

33

Waiting in Line

The number of people arriving at a bank is monitored for each 5

minute interval in the morning on a given day, and the mean was

found to be 2.6 people. The same exercise was undertaken in

the afternoon and found to be 2.1. What is the probability that:

and similarly in the afternoon?

the morning, and similarly in the afternoon?

34

Waiting in Line

Poisson Probability Functions:

x 2.6

2.6 e 2.1x e 2.1

a.m. : P( X ) p.m. : P( X )

x! x!

(a). One person will arrive during the 5 minute interval:

1 2.6

2.6 e 2.11 e 2.1

a.m. : P( X 1) 0.1931 p.m. : 0.2570

1! 1!

a.m. : P( X 0) 0.0743 p.m. : 0.1224

0! 0!

a.m. = 1 - (0.07+0.19) = 0.74 p.m. = 1 - (0.12+0.26) = 0.62

35

Waiting In Line: Graphical Illustration

0.3 0.3

Probability

Probability

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

No upper-limit No upper-limit

Morning: Afternoon:

X=x 2.6x e-2.6 x! Prob. X=x 2.1x e-2.1 x! Prob.

0 1.00 0.0743 1 0.0743 0 1.00 0.1225 1 0.1225

1 2.60 0.0743 1 0.1931 1 2.10 0.1225 1 0.2572

2 6.76 0.0743 2 0.2510 2 4.41 0.1225 2 0.2700

3 17.58 0.0743 6 0.2176 3 9.26 0.1225 6 0.1890

4 45.70 0.0743 24 0.1414 4 19.45 0.1225 24 0.0992

5 118.81 0.0743 120 0.0735 5 40.84 0.1225 120 0.0417

6 308.92 0.0743 720 0.0319 6 85.77 0.1225 720 0.0146

36

Waiting in Line Cont.

(c). What is the expected number of people arriving within any

10 minute period at the bank in the morning?

Then the expected number of people in 10 minutes = 5.2

Because people arrive at a constant rate (Assumption #1)

Poisson function for x arrivals in any 10 minute period is:

5.2 x e 5.2 1

5.2 e 5.2

a.m. : P( X ) P( X 1) 0.0287

x! 1!

Be careful: chance of 1 arrival in any 10 minute period is not

double (half) that of 1 arrival in any 5 min. period (P = 0.17).

37

The Poisson Assumptions Revisited

A solicitors medical negligence claims department receives on

average 15 enquiries per 5 day week. Discuss the applicability /

validity of the Poisson assumptions to this scenario.

so assuming events occur at a constant rate, we can expect 3

enquiries per day (mu = 3). (Assumption #1).

Or different mus for different days of the week?

impact the chance of an enquiry on Tuesday (Assumption # 2)

Or is it pent up weekend demand?

Leads following TV advertisement?

38

- BinomialUploaded byijam
- Chapter 2Uploaded byGharib Mahmoud
- Lecture 15Uploaded byVaibhav Shukla
- Probability of Collision of Random Inertial Particles With a Flat WallUploaded byHugo Hernández
- HomeworkUploaded byM
- Class2 ChartsUploaded byjbrunomaciel1957
- Probability Distribution MPUploaded byShanky Jain
- Introduction 2Uploaded byAnon
- 5Uploaded byKowsik_JS
- stat151_class1Uploaded bythefrederation
- 12-Maths-Exemplar-Chapter-13.pdfUploaded byMohammed Irshad
- Introduction 1Uploaded byWeiShin
- Stat 130 Module 1 b SlidesUploaded byambonulan
- Statistics and ProbabilityUploaded bycedrick arano
- c1l1exploring Random Variables (l1)-1Uploaded byZac Walker
- Chapter 8Uploaded bycamillesyp
- Learning Unit 9Uploaded byBelindaNiemand
- 11_stochUploaded byManoj Gupta
- MS-8-jun-2010Uploaded bysubbuk27p
- 2018 Exam p SyllabiUploaded byMarie Santoro
- Detailed Lesson Plan in sci10Uploaded byAnnaTeresaCalayag
- Wireless _3.2 (Mobile Radio Propgation Small Scale Path Loss ) newnewnewUploaded byapi-3856938
- LectureNotes13.pdfUploaded bysharief85
- 2.3 Probability DistributionsUploaded byPatricia Nicole Bautista
- 18.05 Lecture 2 February 4, 2005Uploaded byvannud
- Sta Project 2Uploaded byNisa Azam
- Introduccion to Descentralised Data FusionUploaded byWendy Guzman
- paMaths Course PlanUploaded byprabhat
- Probability - Presentation 1Uploaded byVeenavijayanath Veena
- RiskUploaded byRicardo Shahid Ruiz Salvatierra

- Financial and Managerial Accounting (74)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (87)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (75)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (80)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (78)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (85)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (77)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (76)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (79)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (73)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (82)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (72)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (81)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (77).pdfUploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (83)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (56)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (63).pdfUploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (65).pdfUploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (69)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (64).pdfUploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (61)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (71)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (57)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (60)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (58)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (59).pdfUploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (68)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (62)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (70)Uploaded bycons the
- Financial and Managerial Accounting (67)Uploaded bycons the

- Triangular Trade LessonUploaded byMaggie Gorska
- A Happy State of MindUploaded bynarayan k
- PilatesUploaded byTes
- Vocabulary in ContextUploaded byQasem Naseh
- PrayerBook_v11Uploaded byphoenixsnow7
- Final SynopsisAMITYUploaded byVaneet Kumar
- Translated USSR ReportUploaded bySoul_420
- Masonmia.bibUploaded bylusbys
- The Bhagavad GitaUploaded bySandip S Nagare
- Car Crash SimulationUploaded byKhadeejah Ahmed
- A Level Practical Performance Calculator AR-changes-Sept 2016Uploaded byBev Bev
- Applied ethics and artificial intelligenceUploaded bykristijankrkac
- CBCP Monitor vol14-n11Uploaded byAreopagus Communications, Inc.
- 2015, Standards, accuracy, and questions of bias in Rorschach meta-analyses.pdfUploaded byjuaromer
- Good Reading Habits EssayUploaded byMichael
- a-minimum-quadratic-unbiased-estimation-minque-of-parameters-in-a-linear-regression-model-with-sperical-disturbancesUploaded byIJSTR Research Publication
- 18348B.pdfUploaded byLynVanderson
- Immaterial ArchitectureUploaded bysantopino
- Masculinity in DDUploaded byLuz
- "Being Muslims & its challenges" 1 Scribd]Uploaded byzhulkeflee
- Insurance Project (Autosaved)Uploaded byPrashant Mahawar
- The Poet Who Sings Through Us Homer's Influence_BelskyUploaded byRaul A. Burneo
- Eelscapes (a tale of 1983)Uploaded bylouis tallerico
- Research DesignUploaded byAmil P. Tan II
- Sahih MuslimUploaded byLinda
- Hungary. ParliamentarismUploaded byrps94
- SOCH05067-2Uploaded byhau
- Gce o Level 2012 Physics 5058 Paper 1 SolutionsUploaded byYovi
- The 5S Methodology As A Tool For Improving The OrganisationUploaded byupsetavalanche487
- The Divine HadithsUploaded bymascomweb