Sustainable Energy Systems

M.Sc. Chem. Engg.

2nd Semester
2016
 Contents
World Energy Scenario
Pakistans Energy Crisis
World Total Energy Consumption

200-2000

>2000

Below 50
World Electricity Production
World Coal and Lignite Production
World Crude Oil Production
World Natural Gas Production
World Share of Renewables in
Electricity Production
World Energy Intensity
World CO2 Emissions
World Total Primary Production
Energy Scenario of Pakistan

Source: World Bank Report

Power Shortage in Pakistan Oil products
5,081,727
Crude Oil
3,305,805

Demand Increasing
Generation Capacity: static
Demand-Supply Gap Increasing
 Gas Consumption

The increase in household consumption of gas and CNG use for transportation, in the face of
stagnant total supply since 2008, is shown in Figure 3.2a. What should be noted in Figure
3.2b, is the sharp fall in gas usage for power generation, even though the country was
experiencing a growing power shortage during this period.
Per Capita Energy Usage

2005 2010
Indonesia Indonesia
India, Pakistan
India

Pakistan

Bangladesh Bangladesh
Power Consumption Per Capita
GDP per unit of Energy Usage

See Trends
CNG Demand Projections vs Actual Sales

What is the reason?

Number of Gas Consumers
Gas Tariff
Cost of Electricity Generation
Thermal Generation Fuel Mix

Domestic Gas

Imported Oil
Transmission and Distribution Losses
Build-up of Circular Debt
The most pressing impediment in the energy sector has been
resolved in June 2013 the government paid Rs 322 billion
to settle the circular debt. To address the underlying
problem, commercial and industrial power tariffs were
increased in August 2013, and household tariffs in
November. However, unpaid bills by private consumers and
provincial governments must also be addressed, as part of
the larger reform agenda for the entire energy supply chain.
As discussed earlier, policymakers must not just deal with
the financing issue (i.e., paying off the circular debt or
financing the huge power subsidy), but also push hard to
bring in professional management to restructure the energy
sector. As Pakistans case clearly shows, short-term policy
expediency creates medium-to-long term structural
problems.
As in the case of fiscal reforms to increase tax revenues,
raising power tariffs and reversing the ill-advised cut in gas
tariffs in 2010, will not be palatable for existing users.
However, with a gap of Rs 5.5 /KWh between the average cost
of generation and distribution, and what Discos are able to
recover from customers, a sharp increase in tariffs is
unavoidable. In the case of piped gas, tariffs should be
increased not just to reduce the sharp differential that
currently exists between household and
industrial/commercial users, but to discourage over-use by
households (especially for power generation). This tariff
rationalization will stoke inflation, which partially explains
why SBP projected inflation for FY14 in the range of 10.5 -
11.5 percent. This year inflation has been brought to a single
digit.
With the power shortage likely to persist for many years,
multi-dimensional steps are required to increase the
production of domestic oil and gas; disallow inefficient use of
natural gas (i.e. CNG), households and captive power units in
the industrial sector); rationalize end-user tariffs in both the
power and gas sectors; prioritize allocation of gas for power
generation; and move aggressively to restructure and
privatize state-owned Gencos and Discos.
 1. ROOTS OF PAKISTANS ENERGY CRISIS
Pakistan today is caught up in an acute Energy Crisis which has its roots in five
(5) distinct causes, namely;

i. Lack of Integrated Energy Planning & Demand Forecasting and absence

of central & focused entity responsible for the Energy Sector

ii. Imbalanced Energy Mix with heavy reliance on gas (47.5%) and Oil
(30.5%) (72% imported)

iii. Non-utilization of vast indigenous resources of Thar Coal and Hydel

potential

iv. Lack of effective project structuring, planning and implementation of

indentified and viable projects

v. Inadequate Primary Energy Sources or access to, or local availability /

development

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 Assignment 1
What is the energy/power system of Pakistan?
What is the energy mix of Pakistan?
What are the Economic challenges of Pakistan?
What can be a role of chemical Engineer like you
in the economic development of Pakistan?
What should be the future strategy of Pakistan in
short as well as long term?
What are the energy challenges of local industry?
Due in Two Weeks as Power Point Presentation